mattb65 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here is the GFS HFD sounding at 72 HR...notice the warm layer between about 800-950mb...then temps go well below-freezing below that. Not a lot of experience with interpretting these things but that is a major push of warm air that extends pretty low .. might be ugly zr, hopefully the shallow cold is cold enough to refreeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 WOW....sleet line is around the MA\CT border...even Kev is mainly snow. Crap that means a sleetfest down this way. I want the epic ZR event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm just going to assume the Euro is an icing event down here? NO...snow to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ne missouri gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Crap that means a sleetfest down this way. I want the epic ZR event. I think this run overcorrecrted a bit, but we'll see....maybe I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NO...snow to sleet. at this point I'd rather see an inch of ice down here than some snow and taint. I'm also a sicko. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 00z ec has my 2m temps down to 10F during the peak of the main event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This run is def. less wet......the price we pay for the SW getting having it's azz handed to it so severely by the PV lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not a lot of experience with interpretting these things but that is a major push of warm air that extends pretty low .. might be ugly zr, hopefully the shallow cold is cold enough to refreeze. That could be a pretty ugly ZR sounding but that is also close to being more in the way of IP...if that warm layer was just a bit cooler it might be more IP than ZR. NOt sure what you mean with the last part of the sentence though...cold enough to refreeze as what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Crap that means a sleetfest down this way. I want the epic ZR event. epic zr sounds good in theory until you experience it and lose power + heat then have to use a frickin ice pick to open the door of your car in order to get a generator. Then again if that's what you're hoping for, best of luck to you lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NO...snow to sleet. really? wow...further complicates things here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That could be a pretty ugly ZR sounding but that is also close to being more in the way of IP...if that warm layer was just a bit cooler it might be more IP than ZR. NOt sure what you mean with the last part of the sentence though...cold enough to refreeze as what? refreeze as IP .. or does the snow only partially melt in order to form IP, was never sure of that. Always thought partially melted flakes fall as either snow grains or aggregates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ne missouri gets crushed. Yeah, I think the ECM gives them over 2" of QPF, all snow, unreal blizzard for the Midwest. Chicago gets hit pretty good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think it gives me about 1.2" of QPF, but it maybe a little less.....those 15-20 calls are def. premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think it gives me about 1.2" of QPF, but it maybe a little less.....those 15-20 calls are def. premature. maybe it'll increase qpf a little bit more with time. the big thing for a lot of you mass guys is avoiding the taint. so far so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 maybe it'll increase qpf a little bit more with time. the big thing for a lot of you mass guys is avoiding the taint. so far so good. Yea, I wasn't complaining...sry if I came off that way....this QPF is far more reasonable imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JYarsh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I can't imagine that the ZR threat is too high for anyone in this setup. The boundary cold layer is so stiff that I think virtually everyone who is torching at the mid levels will see sleet. There may be a narrow area with serious ZR accreciton, but I think this area will be narrow and tough to hammar out until its happening. This kind of reminds me of the Valentine's Day storm down in the DC area where I was at the time. Forecast went from rain, to panicking about ZR, to several inches of sleet. There was only the smallest sliver - maybe 20 miles wide - with major ZR accumulations to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 refreeze as IP .. or does the snow only partially melt in order to form IP, was never sure of that. Always thought partially melted flakes fall as either snow grains or aggregates. Ah I see what you mean...well in order to see sleet you don't want the warm layer to be very warm (I'm sure this depends on the time of year and such but I'd guess you don't want it to be any warmer than +3C) and you want it to be around 600 to perhaps as low as 750-800mb...this way you give the precip time to re-freeze back towards IP...if the warm layer exists too low it really won't have much time to fully transform to IP. This is going to be one tough forecast for the interior here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So clearly the net result is a colder solution and it sounds like it's closer to the 18z nam cold than the 0z nam cold is that right? However QPF a good deal lower but still >1 ft verbatim for much of the area. Other trends include more amped primary but also more potent PV. How juicy does the appetizer precip look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 epic zr sounds good in theory until you experience it and lose power + heat then have to use a frickin ice pick to open the door of your car in order to get a generator. Then again if that's what you're hoping for, best of luck to you lol. Actually yeah pretty much..I experienced it in Novemeber 2002 we lost power at my house for 3 or 4 days. Ended up having to go to my grandmother's because the house got too cold. Of course, this time we'd be dealing with super cold temperatures in the wake of the storm so it actually is a case of "be careful what you wish for." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Models are trending colder with the storm likely that will be more snow than sleet or ice in northern ct area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So clearly the net result is a colder solution and it sounds like it's closer to the 18z nam cold than the 0z nam cold is that right? However QPF a good deal lower but still >1 ft verbatim for much of the area. Other trends include more amped primary but also more potent PV. How juicy does the appetizer precip look? 0.25-0.50" for S NH/S VT/all SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So clearly the net result is a colder solution and it sounds like it's closer to the 18z nam cold than the 0z nam cold is that right? However QPF a good deal lower but still >1 ft verbatim for much of the area. Other trends include more amped primary but also more potent PV. How juicy does the appetizer precip look? Ap is about a 2-4"...maybe 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0.25-0.50" for S NH/S VT/all SNE I like the sound of that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JYarsh Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ah I see what you mean...well in order to see sleet you don't want the warm layer to be very warm (I'm sure this depends on the time of year and such but I'd guess you don't want it to be any warmer than +3C) and you want it to be around 600 to perhaps as low as 750-800mb...this way you give the precip time to re-freeze back towards IP...if the warm layer exists too low it really won't have much time to fully transform to IP. This is going to be one tough forecast for the interior here. A met may be able to clear this up better than I can. Its not just the height of the warm layer (although that definitely matters), but also the temperature at the surface. I haven't checked out the soundings, but it seems like boundary temps are going to be 24-27 in central CT where you are, which makes IP really hard to imagine, even with a relatively low warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Barry Burbank just called 14"+ snow for Boston area. 4 from the appetizer, 10+ for the main course. I like the sound of that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I like the sound of that... well leb is around the 0.25. maybe we can squeeze some respectable ratios out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The high to our north is much stronger vs 12z. the banana arm from the MT high is much stronger 54-66hr. it's >1032mb now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 well leb is around the 0.25. maybe we can squeeze some respectable ratios out of that. I'm going with 2.5-5 for the first part... Probably a little too balls to the walls, but I feel good about this whole setup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 A met may be able to clear this up better than I can. Its not just the height of the warm layer (although that definitely matters), but also the temperature at the surface. I haven't checked out the soundings, but it seems like boundary temps are going to be 24-27 in central CT where you are, which makes IP really hard to imagine, even with a relatively low warm layer. Not a met but I've seen freezing rain at 17 degrees or lower, the upper levels don't necessarily care that much what's happening at the immediate surface. Also seen IP in the low teens so yeah the column is hugely important for p-type not just the surface temp even if it's really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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