brooklynwx99

you as well as anyone would know what came after 2001-02 with a flip to a pretty legit Nino... coming off of multiple Ninas

the -PNA also becomes less and less of an annoyance once into Feb due to the shorter wavelengths, too definitely not sold that this will be a canonical Nina Feb. what about this winter has been canonical in the slightest? more like a Nino, honestly

I would certainly take my chances form NYC south in this type of pattern cross polar flow, some blocking, and a source region that's finally favorable. this is active too with the STJ open. there's always a risk for cutters, but I like this type of pattern for overrunning, which are "easier" storms that can still deliver for a larger area

I know, it's been frustrating, but all we have is what's in front of us. the change occurs around Day 8, too, so this isn't complete fantasy at this point

you guys are going to get rocked if this is correct... this is even good down to NYC. the TPV is in a good spot here, there's cross polar flow, and even some blocking I know that pessimism is rampant, but you can make up a ton of ground in this type of active setup

the main difference IMO is that the TPV will be on our side of the globe this go around, potentially in a great spot in E Canada. IIRC, it was in Europe / Asia for late December

if the gradient sets up here, then this could be a fun pattern for everyone. this is cold, and the TPV is displaced in a really good spot... lowers heights in the 50/50 region and would act as confluence

hopefully this is correct. this would be good down here near NYC we finally look to have all of the cold air on our side of the globe, and the TPV itself is in a nice spot, potentially forcing confluence over the 50/50 region. would certainly be active with lots of HP over the top this isn't fantasy, either. the TPV gets displaced from Greenland around day 7

hopefully this is correct. this would be a great pattern for you guys, and even good down here near NYC we finally look to have all of the cold air on our side of the globe, and the TPV itself is in a nice spot, potentially forcing confluence over the 50/50 region. would certainly be active with lots of HP over the top this isn't fantasy, either. the TPV gets displaced from Greenland around day 7

heavy breathing

yeah this is pretty solid, especially for you guys. PV in Hudson Bay, low heights in the 50/50 region, -EPO, and some hints of blocking the -PNA likely flexes the SE ridge at times, but there's a lot of cold air in North America lights out though!!!!!!!!!!! super ugly!!!!!!

he’s always been pompous af. even earlier in the year he said the pattern was unbelievable. like a SE US KU pattern. and slithered back on it

some troughing over CA in these patterns isn’t bad, but that’s just overwhelming

part of it is climate change, another part of it is just shit luck in a Nina-dominated stretch. that’s really it there’s gonna be more >30” and <10” winters at BWI with less winters actually near average. just gotta be able to take the good with the bad

nice black hole over southern CA lmao the GFS has actually been remarkably consistent with this, hopefully it’s wrong but who knows at this point. these ridges have just been orienting themselves horribly since last year

I know what you mean. not really sure why it happens, either. probably a mixture of some bad luck and Nina crap, who knows

it’s a long range OP run

yeah, the EPS is highly favorable

EPS is really nice looking too. all major ensembles are in agreement on the -EPO/-AO/-NAO

GEFS is loaded. completely displaces the TPV with a legit -NAO signal to boot a -EPO/-AO/-NAO pattern like this would be quite fun

yeah this is kinda nuts. -NAO signal as well with low heights over Nova Scotia. TPV is completely displaced

it's due to a transient feature that's causing it, though. I wouldn't expect that to happen, and once that ejects, you can get a huge storm. and if it shears, you probably get record cold. that pattern would certainly make the entire CONUS cold, it's just the GFS going off the rails a bit. highly doubt that happens this kind of stuff happens the other way, too. I've seen anomalous 50/50 ULLs keep us at like -10 to -15 at 850 while the rest of the US is a blowtorch

that pattern would probably deliver a huge overrunning event soon, though. tons of cold, and the low off the coast drags the boundary down, energy in S CA ejects, and bang I wouldn't get too stressed about this run. that ULL in Baja will always lead to a SE ridge, btw. it's like a -4 to -5 sigma anomaly shoving tropical air into the E US, would've popped a ridge here in like 1890. not going to happen like that either way, not really worried about it

it's also very important to note that when dealing with a -EPO pattern that features lots of low level cold, heights can be very misleading using the 12z GFS OP as an example, there's a huge mid level ridge centered over the NE US, absolute torch, right? nope! not even close. there's a ton of low level cold air in SE Canada with highs in the teens and 20s in New England. a WSW level thump then ensues keep this in mind when people freak out about weak SE ridges or WARs in the extended on the means. it tells you absolutely nothing about the low levels. the heights are only high because it's torching at like 500-700mb when it's insignificant to precip type

the 12z GFS OP drops the AO to like -7, the NAO to like -5, and the EPO to like -3 and would deliver a sick overrunning pattern. i'll take it