brooklynwx99
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Everything posted by brooklynwx99
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some years are a mixture of generally poor patterns and bad luck. I don't think it's a matter of it never snowing again in marginal setups... it hasn't snowed for much of the NE this winter south of NYC. just a crappy winter but idk, it does get very cold, the ridge out west retrogrades, some ridging pumps as a result, and the TPV is about to move in. it all seems relatively normal to me. just a bunch of crap luck that it doesn't snow -
it's because the ridge out west retrogrades into the ocean, pumping a ridge for a bit. the cold air is coming verbatim Ninas do that crap sometimes. it's annoying
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ha I'm Morristown NJ 90% of the time now, which is much better than Brooklyn, but your point still stands
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idk about you, but I would take 3-6" before a changeover. probably in the minority there, though
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EPS is thumpy for mid next week
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if you're gonna troll me, make them valid for the same time you should at least make me pay you rent with how much I seem to live in your head
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groundhog day?
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GFS coming in colder... faster SS vort and lower heights downstream
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when are you going to stop being so insufferable?
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this type of look is at day 8 now, after the midweek threat
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holy crap. that midweek threat might just open the floodgates
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ha
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FWIW the OP GFS is on the far W edge of the GEFS SLP positions. most are offshore
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FWIW the OP GFS is on the far W edge of the SLP positions on the GEFS. most are offshore
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I have been deceived by the GFS way too many times. so many times it'll be by itself on something to completely cave
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it's a good thing the GFS is consistently awful
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people have to realize that climate change is also responsible for winters like 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16, 2017-18, and 2020-21 just makes the bad periods worse and the good periods better
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idk, I will certainly take this at day 7. good amount of Miller As off the coast with a solid snowfall mean
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that's climo for you guys in the medium range, though. anything over 1" is an actual signal for something 7 days away
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this looks pretty nice
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UKMET has horrible thermals. wouldn't pay the snow output much mind
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this would normally cut, but the system over the Rockies keeps things progressive
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similar to the ECMWF, but still the second best model based on skill scores, surprisingly. 2m temps are useless it's generally a bit erratic
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we want to see the southern stream continue to tick faster for Monday... it seems like that's the main culprit for the lowered heights later in the run:
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the quicker southern stream leads to lower downstream heights, similar to the GFS
