brooklynwx99

ECMWF holding serve, booting the S/W out of the west. the GFS still remains alone here at 12z

I know, that's probably the one thing that it's gotten right all by itself this year. usually happens once a year or so. still the worst performing model out of all the globals

the GFS usually gets one thing right all year and then flubs as soon as there's an impactful coastal storm. I have seen it so many times it sucked with Monday's system up here anyway so I'm not even sure what people are talking about

first off, it's because it's been rather inconsistent, it's underdispersive, and it's outnumbered by the other two ENS I'll put it this way... if the GEFS was the only ENS that was showing a KU setup and the GEPS/EPS were slower or less clear, I would absolutely, 100% guarantee that everyone would discount the GEFS. no question in my mind the whole evolution it shows is also bizarre to me, and I would expect something more like the other two ENS, it just makes more sense in my head. the GEFS solution is not impossible, but I would lean more towards the EPS/GEPS considering they hold the majority and are becoming stronger in their signals, if anything. we'll see what the EPS does in a bit

yes, but that's the risk you have to take to avoid cutters. overall it's a very favorable pattern

also the GEPS still looks great for next week. absolutely nothing like the GEFS, more so following the EPS

the pattern was favorable. full stop. its lack of production is a different story

GEPS still looks great for next week. absolutely nothing like the GEFS, more so following the EPS

GEFS is still pretty much the same in the west, which is annoying, but it is really ratcheting up the blocking now, so that's a plus. that C US ridge is also getting squashed. the GEFS is pretty much on its own with this look by Thursday... the GEPS looks like it's going to hold serve from 00z last night

I'm cool with that. the ideal pattern progression is there and we get a big, dynamic solution. good run

the 50/50 ULL locks in confluence and keeps storms from cutting. it's probably the most important feature for any 6"+ snowstorm in the MA

use the ensembles and take a breath

it made a positive shift in the west. you're going to get weird OP solutions at 10 days out no comments on the CMC?

basically a storm that qualifies for a NESIS ranking... a notably high-end storm

so close indeed, but this is a KU setup. near textbook

CMC holding serve with booting the S/W out... this looks very good

really nice trend here with the ULL from the Rex block and the S/W of focus over the last few runs... we've see increased separation between the two features, and 12z is even showing ridging popping up between the two... this would allow for the S/W to get booted E instead of getting trapped W this is what the ECMWF/CMC ENS had, and hopefully it's a sign that they're handling the pattern better

here are the effects of that small change only a day later... seems like a legit shift towards the more favorable pattern evolution

@Ralph Wiggum @CAPE really nice trend here with the ULL from the Rex block and the S/W of focus over the last few runs... we've see increased separation between the two features, and 12z is even showing ridging popping up between the two... this would allow for the S/W to get booted E instead of getting trapped W this is what the ECMWF/CMC ENS had, and hopefully it's a sign that they're handling the pattern better

that’s not a “real” ridge. not a SE ridge at all with the 50/50 in place. it’s actually well below average temperature wise because of the 50/50, and the entire CONUS goes into the freezer as the WC trough gets kicked. that’s going to happen, it’s just a matter of it being quicker like the EPS/GEPS or slower like the GEFS not a cause for worry IMO

the main difference between the GEFS and EPS / GEPS is that the GEFS keeps the trough over the WC and doesn't eject it eastward. this is a possibility, but I wouldn't worry about it too much, as the GFS OP is doing that and the GEFS is underdispersive. it's just a strange looking pattern evolution... you would expect it to progress, not just cut off and sit there however, this is worth noting as a way that positive effects from the blocking pattern can be delayed. this wouldn't ruin the pattern or anything, we would just have to wait longer and not have the same distinct KU potential that the EPS and GEPS present around the 10th. if that S/W ejects, it's immediately off to the races

the main difference between the GEFS and EPS / GEPS is that the GEFS keeps the trough over the WC and doesn't eject it eastward. this is a possibility, but I wouldn't worry about it too much, as the GFS OP is doing that and the GEFS is underdispersive. it's just a strange looking pattern evolution... you would expect it to progress, not just cut off and sit there however, this is worth noting as a way that positive effects from the blocking pattern can be delayed. this wouldn't ruin the pattern or anything, we would just have to wait longer and not have the same distinct KU potential that the EPS and GEPS present around the 10th. if that S/W ejects, it's immediately off to the races

the GEPS is in agreement for the most part but the GEFS is stubborn. it's been coming around, tho. looks a lot better than it did yesterday that is a classic pattern evolution. look how similar it is to the pattern progression for NYC's 18"+ storms they both have the anomalous, decaying -NAO over the Davis Strait, the deep 50/50 ULL, a -EPO that promotes cross-polar flow, and a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Pacific NW

and as a result...

considerably more confluence on the 18z GEFS... makes sense with the WB -NAO establishing itself. this is the one thing that could really help this storm out