the GEFS has pretty much totally caved to the EPS/GEPS with its handling of the WC S/W. looks like next weekend is now a legit threat given that the models are kicking a shortwave under the block
this is probably the highest potential pattern since March 2018. there will be multiple opportunities for high-end threats
MUCH more amped S/W diving into the Rockies on this run. there has been a total cave by the GEFS today. it’s not really a question at this point IMO. something will pop on many members this run
here’s the main thing IMO… look at the trend to have less and less interaction between the ULL in the Pacific and our S/W of interest, as well as the stronger blocking
this lack of interaction (now even a ridge on the 00z run today!) allows for the S/W to escape E rather than get sucked W. this is a huge development towards the more favorable foreign models
haha i am living in Morristown 95% of the time tho. grew up in Brooklyn and moved out to the burbs for work
anyway, hopefully we keep the momentum going. the whole MA needs it (yes, including NYC haha)
thank you! posters from way back when helped me do the same when I was a kid
so i try and help others gain the same insights that I did! they’re fascinating. and trust me, I learn every day both at my job and even here
some people, like myself and a handful of others, find the way weather patterns evolve interesting and try and forecast them. and then try and determine threats and track them too