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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    i think it's one of those things where it's better now than it used to be - but there are better sampling capabilities on land for sure. If that kind of thing didn't matter for forecasting still you wouldn't have RAOB balloon launches or anything, I'd imagine
  2. NorthArlington101
    It's over
  3. NorthArlington101
    also, fwiw, the 10th percentile on the EPS. you'd like to think this is the (10:1) floor w/ where things stand... but you never know.
  4. NorthArlington101
    worse on the fringes (metros). Better for favored zones and those who might get tempted to chase out that way
  5. NorthArlington101
    pretty cheap hotels... might be worth dipping into my vacation slush fund. I'd been hoping that if D.C. was a fail, I could at least go west and take advantage of some free housing (family) along the I-81 corridor. But not sure it's worth the chase. May be a Friday call
  6. NorthArlington101
    Might be able to drive in and drive out in the same day... hotel room not even needed
  7. NorthArlington101
    850s bad for almost everyone, surface toasty unless you are in the mountains or along I-95. Gets worse and worse the more you look at it.
  8. NorthArlington101
    Not even worth chasing - lame outcome. to echo PSU
  9. NorthArlington101
    flips back to snow at the end but not nearly as good as other models - tough sledding in D.C (literally)
  10. NorthArlington101
    Noonish in the metro
  11. NorthArlington101
    actually it's worse - you are raining by 4:00pm it's kind of a disaster
  12. NorthArlington101
    looks very similar from a RA/SN line perspective by hr78. Gotta be west of the beltway
  13. NorthArlington101
    850s are sooooo close, but surface temps are shot. That said, UKIE thermals are lol. Cville is placed into an isolated freezer with the 6" of snow it gets this run
  14. NorthArlington101
    Been some hints of an MLK storm. Minus the next Tuesday deal (trip to the mountains?) that period is what interests me most
  15. NorthArlington101
    I take back what I said about the GEFS. Mean initially looked better, but checking out the median reveals an outlier or two is tossing things up. Overall - GEFS throws out a weaker system. Looking at the ens is nearing (if not hit) it's expiration date anyway, but the >1" probs aren't exactly thrilling
  16. NorthArlington101
    CMC would be fantastic for the favored zones and would accumulate even where it's warm on the surface if it's dumping but it's a bad run for I-95 imo. Temps at height of the storm
  17. NorthArlington101
    2.4 at DCA and 10.9 at BWI would be a disaster.
  18. NorthArlington101
    But soundings and QPF are harder to understand /s If you are in I'm in. We tend to perform similarly. I already know I'm not gonna be in D.C. for this one - question is if I hang in A-Town or if it's worth it to flee to HBurg or Staunton.
  19. NorthArlington101
    WxBell maps are friendlier so I'm gonna assume they've made the right call. I'll post when it wraps.
  20. NorthArlington101
    Personally, I see some room for improvement
  21. NorthArlington101
    Thanks! Not concerned - just saying. We'll talk about it for pages when it's good, though.
  22. NorthArlington101
    ICON is a step back at 12z.
  23. NorthArlington101
    Nasty gradient... 10" in NW Arlington, 3" in SE. It's also still ripping at this point in DC.
  24. NorthArlington101
    and FWIW - just because I think it's interesting to track how the newer-tech (not necessarily better, at all) models do - the SPIRE has held a 6-8"+ storm (kinda like the 00z GFS/CMC) sicne 00z yesterday. It only runs 2x a day.
  25. NorthArlington101
    if we're being technical that was it's high-res counterpart the HRDPS - but yeah, RGEM isn't a known winner either. I know we've already shared the EPS mean -- below is the median. Wanted to make sure there weren't crazy outliers propping up the mean. Still looks solid enough.
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