NorthArlington101

GFS has enough snow overnight tonight to verify the SWS in the metro... close to WWA in the counties NWS picked out too

I tried to use it for our last event and it crapped out before we got 24 hours in, but it showed a lot of sleet and I got a lot of rain, so it's not a magic bullet. I do think it is "supposed" to be the latest and greatest short/hi-res model, though.

The National Weather Service promised me 3-4"+ so that's my bar

admittedly not as epic as I'd thought it might be (early maps might show some virga) it still juiced up slightly. tries a bit w/ the coastal as well

18Z RGEM looks like a weenie run based off the early maps, FWIW. Also supports the WWA tonight, I believe. Better maps hopefully in a few.

Maybe you'll change your mind after the 5th mimosa

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The region is likely to see the first significant accumulating snow in several years, starting late tonight in central VA, then spreading northward Monday into Tuesday. Cold conditions expected through mid week as highs struggle to reach the mid 30s south/east of US-29, and remain below freezing to the north/west. Monday night will see temps drop to the 20s, with teens in the mountains. Frigid temperatures arrive Tuesday night as the temps plunge into the teens, with single digits in the Alleghenies. Combined with gusty winds, dangerous wind chills are likely in the single digits to single digits below zero, and negative teens in the Alleghenies. A potent jet aloft and numerous waves of low pressure traversing the region that is socked in to an Arctic airmass will allow for at least two periods of accumulating snowfall. The first is expected tonight into Monday morning as a broad shortwave moves overhead. The highest snow totals are expected in Central VA and the Central Shenandoah Valley where Winter Weather Advisories have been issued. Snow amounts of around 1" are expected along the I-95 corridor from Fredericksburg up to the DC metro, and around half an inch up to the Baltimore metro. Snow rates should decrease Monday afternoon as the area enters a lull between events. Intermittent light snow and flurries will be possible all day across most of the area. The second period of snow is expected Monday evening into Tuesday, and this is expected to produce widespread snow amounts of 2-3" with isolated higher amounts possible. Additional Winter Weather Advisories are expected to be issued during the next forecast cycle tonight to account for the second period of snow.

Agreed, I feel misled by the NAM’ing posts. Doesn’t meet LWX’s bullish forecast. Next (largely jk)

I have to imagine high ratio snowfall is falling into this forecast. It just seems astonishingly bullish. CWG can’t be happy given how it contrasts against their numbers.

1-2” for Charlottesville tonight/tomorrow morning seems a little bold… but NWS is clearly bullish.

damn. Bullish

Back in DC - still flurrying. Nice to see

Mulch tried to cave occasionally but nothing more than a T. 30 minutes of wind driven snow isn’t bad tho… especially as an appetizer

-SN and windy

Flurries in NW Arlington

Unfortunately. Still hoping it’s mostly snow.

Sunny and 40 in Arlington…. building instability for the line coming in from the west. Hoping not to get split

Thanks - appreciate it. Agree it’s dire if that’s really a problem, was just trying to sus out what was taking out the thermals. Looking forward to the next edition of your book

3k doesn’t do anything with the coastal. Also… snow squall warnings (jk, just SWS’s) out for our northern zones right now. Don’t forget to look out the window

Is this not the coastal taking over and pushing some warm air in, for lack of knowledge of a better term?

It could be ptype BS, but it’s “ice” for everyone outside the mountains. Rain as you go SE of DC Flips back to a little snow at 54

Warm layer at 925