NorthArlington101
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Everything posted by NorthArlington101
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Much appreciated, haha. I'll admit to having never seen the show (before my time ) but love the problem. It's so non-intuitive but easy to explain at the same time... kind of fascinating.
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With pretty much everything showing at least 1" I feel pretty good about not getting totally screwed. My imaginary over/under is 1.5" for inside the Beltway. Seems reasonable -
looks better for DC... and should make the delmarva folks happier
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I'll be enjoying my 8" of snow over the past 5 days and then I'll get back to you
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It’s the Monty hall problem. You always want to switch doors
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Sounds like it’ll still be better but WxBell has no snow at 15 minus western zones so I’m wondering if whatever you are looking at is virga
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i've been looking at the runs and not necessarily seeing the jumps south others are mentioning. It must be a litttle bit, but is it not more the shortwave trending stronger and our favorable position within the left exit region of the jet stream?
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RGEM looks a hair better on the early maps - don't think it'll be the NAMs but shouldn't be getting any worse edit: def a modest push south and a little wetter
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ARW is also better... these mesos might suck but I'd still have them rather be on our side than not
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hires FV3 looks fine, but a little less exciting, if you want another piece of guidance to latch onto
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euro’d
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I think it actually looks like a better vort pass than the 12k NAM… NAM just looks a little negatively tilted and I think that helps out with the coastal side of things, even for spots DC/east Apologies for attempting analysis hope it’s not too off
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00z GFS is okay Baltimore-north. Further south I think the rates are so bad it’ll be scenic and make the snow piles a hair fluffier. map ninja’d
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Consistently better than other models, but it folded like a lawn chair for a shot at 4-5” in our metros.
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Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3
NorthArlington101 replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
It doesn’t matter at all really but I like seeing the GFS throw out a “trackable” bone day 9. Stretches with truly nothing are so boring -
It’s caving [emoji3064]
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RGEM still looks dry based on the early maps. Can’t tell if it made any subtle moves
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Ground temps were a slight problem for DC-east, that’s true. The NAM wasn’t offering a cold smoke solution. Imagine it wouldn’t have any trouble on the grass, though, especially if we maintain snow cover through tomorrow, which we mostly should.
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It actually gets the .2” line basically to DC. Kuchera is worse than the 10:1 looking at it. Unfortunately Leesburg looks like Kansas during the dust bowl. Sorry friend
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Still going in Philly/NYC
