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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    It’s a pretty notable tick SE (or at least slower) at 78 from 18z to 12z
  2. NorthArlington101
    Wisdom of the crowd. Thats why my favorite model is the SREF - so many plumes!
  3. NorthArlington101
  4. NorthArlington101
    Maybe a difference between the SV and WB maps lol 18z 12z
  5. NorthArlington101
    It’s a real thing. Think it did OK with the last snowstorm - shifted the heavier chances of enhanced snowfall down our way maybe a hair quicker than some other guidance. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/efi2web_tp?area=Europe&base_time=202402081200&day=1&quantile=99
  6. NorthArlington101
    There was one winter where every time the MJO entered Phase 8 it snowed just like magic. Became my favorite indicator because of that and because it’s very easy to understand, lol
  7. NorthArlington101
    I mean if it just keeps doing that, we’re good [emoji6]
  8. NorthArlington101
    Median took a modest jump south. 1" mean still runs through D.C. Would be feeling OK on MD/PA border
  9. NorthArlington101
    It's the slighest southward tick of all time. But it did happen.
  10. NorthArlington101
    yeah I'm still at 96 but it actually looks snowier than the GFS. It's still faster though. Feel like slower has where the primo runs have been maybe there is a meet in the middle that's a good outcome for us? just weenie spitballing
  11. NorthArlington101
    We’ll get a KU next year because nothing makes sense anymore
  12. NorthArlington101
    Hate to be that guy but that’s worse than 06z, which was good and we mostly ignored. I’d still take it obviously!
  13. NorthArlington101
    I haven’t been checking the UKIE much but I feel like that’s the best map I’ve seen anyone post of it this storm
  14. NorthArlington101
    I feel like it's been February for a month already. Bust
  15. NorthArlington101
    I've done this in the past 24 hours -- think you might be thinking this is the LR thread. I'm talking Valentine's Day. Hit the 2nd thread and we can find out if the jinx is truly magic (unlikely but not impossible) or we burn it before the real threat window
  16. NorthArlington101
    this seems like the time to do it... can't hurt to test it. We've got our best model wobbling but other things slowly trending better... it's not over but it's bleak and needs some magic.
  17. NorthArlington101
    EPS ens look a tick better just looking at the snow mean/median. Mean in DC is ~1”, median is a T. Both of those are up. Not exactly amazing numbers lol, but still trending friendlier.
  18. NorthArlington101
    Was just coming here to say this - looked slower and diggier. Couldn’t hurt
  19. NorthArlington101
    It’s much improved from 00z actually. Euro continued to shift to the southern trend last night. Not surprised the GFS bounces around a bit. Is the most likely outcome we’re screwed in DC? Probably. I’d be pretty happy in Philly, lol. But it’s not over
  20. NorthArlington101
    EURO is like a 75 mile jump south. Only really helps PSU as it stands… but still moving towards GFS.
  21. NorthArlington101
    Ends up being a relatively minor bump south on the snow mean… but better than nothing for sure
  22. NorthArlington101
    GEFS maps are a lot uglier but really it’s just drier… maybe a bit north which I guess we can’t afford either
  23. NorthArlington101
    No disagreement there Anyway - thru 96 it seems unlikely to me the GEFS is a significant cave.
  24. NorthArlington101
    If it's going at 1"+ hour rates like the run had it, that'll end up incorrect. Especially for northern spots where it kicks off between 7-10am. Probably not relevant anyway. But the snow depth map has sucked ass the 3 events we had this year. Gotta blend it with other, equally bad snow maps at least
  25. NorthArlington101
    the vort pass was norther - but the shifts are quite modest. a shift like we got in the last 48 hours of our last storm would be a difference maker. and we've got 120 to go lol
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