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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    I've done this in the past 24 hours -- think you might be thinking this is the LR thread. I'm talking Valentine's Day. Hit the 2nd thread and we can find out if the jinx is truly magic (unlikely but not impossible) or we burn it before the real threat window
  2. NorthArlington101
    this seems like the time to do it... can't hurt to test it. We've got our best model wobbling but other things slowly trending better... it's not over but it's bleak and needs some magic.
  3. NorthArlington101
    EPS ens look a tick better just looking at the snow mean/median. Mean in DC is ~1”, median is a T. Both of those are up. Not exactly amazing numbers lol, but still trending friendlier.
  4. NorthArlington101
    Was just coming here to say this - looked slower and diggier. Couldn’t hurt
  5. NorthArlington101
    It’s much improved from 00z actually. Euro continued to shift to the southern trend last night. Not surprised the GFS bounces around a bit. Is the most likely outcome we’re screwed in DC? Probably. I’d be pretty happy in Philly, lol. But it’s not over
  6. NorthArlington101
    EURO is like a 75 mile jump south. Only really helps PSU as it stands… but still moving towards GFS.
  7. NorthArlington101
    Ends up being a relatively minor bump south on the snow mean… but better than nothing for sure
  8. NorthArlington101
    GEFS maps are a lot uglier but really it’s just drier… maybe a bit north which I guess we can’t afford either
  9. NorthArlington101
    No disagreement there Anyway - thru 96 it seems unlikely to me the GEFS is a significant cave.
  10. NorthArlington101
    If it's going at 1"+ hour rates like the run had it, that'll end up incorrect. Especially for northern spots where it kicks off between 7-10am. Probably not relevant anyway. But the snow depth map has sucked ass the 3 events we had this year. Gotta blend it with other, equally bad snow maps at least
  11. NorthArlington101
    the vort pass was norther - but the shifts are quite modest. a shift like we got in the last 48 hours of our last storm would be a difference maker. and we've got 120 to go lol
  12. NorthArlington101
    points for the compromise crew... don't want this to compromise any further north
  13. NorthArlington101
    It's further north but we still get a good hit.
  14. NorthArlington101
    surface looks to be modestly colder than last run thru 117... might help when it still hopefully flips us to snow i'd trust @stormtracker has the more relevant info - he's always ahead
  15. NorthArlington101
    LP is a little more than a hair further north and stronger at 105 before it starts trying to transfer. Idk how much it'll matter, in all honesty
  16. NorthArlington101
    Idk if you are actually that far ahead but I'm not seeing a cave thru 90
  17. NorthArlington101
    I think they are inherently tied together... slower storm will likely be further south here. But don't disagree with what you are getting at.
  18. NorthArlington101
    12z EPS snow mean 6z EPS snow mean
  19. NorthArlington101
    Much like the OP… not a lot on the snow front but rather massive jump southward on the LP 12z EPS 6z EPS
  20. NorthArlington101
    Part of the point I was trying to make was we don’t have room in the middle as it stands, but that assumes the GFS is done trending one way. Maybe it ends up pushing the heaviest stuff down to RIC. If it went from Boston to DCA in 24 hours, who says that trend is over. Then a meet in the middle is a pretty friendly solution. This is also totally conjecture and just a way to convince myself we’ve got a shot. But it’s plausible
  21. NorthArlington101
    Idk man… toggling it back from 00z it was a pretty big jump. Kinda looks like it’s behind the GFS by 2 cycles. Maybe they meet in the middle and we get screwed. But maybe the GFS isn’t done moving yet and the middle is OK
  22. NorthArlington101
    Past 81 or so you can tell the GFS is holding a lot more energy back. Its a shift in the right direction though, you’d think
  23. NorthArlington101
    It looks pretty GFS like, toggling back and forth between the two. Maybe even a little souther than GFS w/ the southern streamer
  24. NorthArlington101
    Remember when everything caved towards the GFS that one time in January 2022? Feel like it was a similar range. Half the forum was ready to crown the FV3 king
  25. NorthArlington101
    Not sure how far south Dec. 2018 got but that sounds close
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