Damn I just got caught up on this thread. Weenie says the models are still catching up and pushing south slightly… I-66 jack. Feel like DC-North should be warned. Also looking at the model depictions… gonna be some CRAZY backbuilding today. Scary watch and scary for whoever is just slightly too west.
Don’t want to be a hater but 12k is the same… but I don’t like that because it’s longer so it’s the same precip over a longer period. Less intense 3k is drier That said… would’ve killed to be in this position mere hours ago
Much appreciated, haha. I'll admit to having never seen the show (before my time ) but love the problem. It's so non-intuitive but easy to explain at the same time... kind of fascinating.
With pretty much everything showing at least 1" I feel pretty good about not getting totally screwed.
My imaginary over/under is 1.5" for inside the Beltway. Seems reasonable
i've been looking at the runs and not necessarily seeing the jumps south others are mentioning. It must be a litttle bit, but is it not more the shortwave trending stronger and our favorable position within the left exit region of the jet stream?
RGEM looks a hair better on the early maps - don't think it'll be the NAMs but shouldn't be getting any worse
edit: def a modest push south and a little wetter