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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    The mean ended up the same between 00z and 12z but I do want to help maybe level-set some folks (including myself) and just really hammer home that the OP EURO is an outlier on its members. Only a 10-20% chance - and it's closer to 10%, of >6in 10:1.
  2. NorthArlington101
    No noticeable difference from 00z - noise at best. EURO parent is still the snowiest of it's ens, though. (ok other than e31)
  3. NorthArlington101
    EPS healthier. Just about the same mean areawide as the GEFS.
  4. NorthArlington101
    For those looking beyond this period (cough, me) the EURO and the GFS both have an interesting setup for Jan 14/15. Waaaay at the end of the run, but if things fizzle out into suppression hell after the 6th, that might be the next opportunity.
  5. NorthArlington101
    There is obviously more to it than timing (maybe @CAPE's jet stream lift?) but the CMC and EURO really look the same in a lot of ways... just depends on the thumpiness of the thump and EURO being ~12 hours quicker. EURO still collapses/shreds when it gets closer to the coast.
  6. NorthArlington101
  7. NorthArlington101
    It exists!
  8. NorthArlington101
    12z EURO dusts everyone. Kinda UKIE/RGEM like where individual snow showers might give people something slant-stickabble.
  9. NorthArlington101
    They are better than the OP and better than 06z. Looking at the median over the last 4 runs:
  10. NorthArlington101
    We need to Thanos snap half the forum out of existence during PBP time. And that probably includes me. Mini-threat 1/3-4 for the real sickos Real threat with MECS upside 1/6-7 Anything after that is a ? but 1/10 probably around the next shot
  11. NorthArlington101
    DC flips to rain at the end lol. Lots of outcomes still on the table. Need the "just right" level of confluence.
  12. NorthArlington101
    You can see the WAA axis still resulting in a hit, but definitely on the south end of it this go. FRZA line is close to DC.
  13. NorthArlington101
    UKIE brings the system through as a snow squall, lol. We'd buy - unless this messes up 1/6.
  14. NorthArlington101
    As @Bob Chillsaid earlier - the WAA should at least be good for someone. Another tricky feature to place but someone from Raleigh-NYC should get 3-6" from that alone.
  15. NorthArlington101
    It's not a juice problem as I see it - it has the juice til it hits our doorstep. It's the 1-3/4 wave running interference. ICON/EURO have better spacing... though honestly my one issue with the 06z EURO that I didn't bring up was a negative trend in that direction.
  16. NorthArlington101
    Doesn't make it with the wave one precip beyond a C-2 locally - more CVA. Shredded. See if it does what it did at 0z and reform.
  17. NorthArlington101
    Looking really good at 144
  18. NorthArlington101
    That's the kind of detail that can honestly change with 48-72 hours on the clock. We've been rooting for/against that exact feature many times. Long way to go.
  19. NorthArlington101
    12z CMC wants to split the difference through 120
  20. NorthArlington101
    yeah, I'm at 150 and it's 100% more suppressed than EURO/ICON. We know what to look for, at least!
  21. NorthArlington101
    I'm out to 147 on some very low-res maps. Not sure this will be the run folks want yet but it's a move in the right direction.
  22. NorthArlington101
    It's a lot more organized at 123. Looks harder to shred.
  23. NorthArlington101
    huge!
  24. NorthArlington101
    the Apple Weather app is telling people to prep for 7-9" of snow next Monday. Have got a couple of texts from friends and colleagues. Good stuff.
  25. NorthArlington101
    thank you! It's going to be amazing... won't regret missing family time later in life as we all age and spread out across the country. Just wish the trip was planned to be a week earlier, lol
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