Happy first day of (online) classes to me! Somehow, UVA still plans on holding in-person classes this Fall. Like we are much smarter then USC, Notre Dame, or UNC, haha.
It’s just casual analysis, tbh I don’t know what I’m talking about. I tried to word it carefully... we obviously want certain conditions to happen but I don’t think we’ve ever had a lock on it three months out. We don’t usually have a lock on it two weeks out. Smarter people then me can look at the super long range models and see good signs but IMO it’s not worth worrying about.
LR winter analysis is a slight step above astrology, IMO. You can definitely identify warning flags, but we are just so reliant on flukes during winter that it’s hardly worth grumbling about/taking anything too seriously. Love the thread and the work though.
Anyone feel an earthquake? I didn’t in Arlington, but my friends down in Charlottesville did. Looking on Twitter it looks like it was probably down in the Carolinas.