NorthArlington101

GEFS continue to improve every run... showing more and more frozen. I can see the north trend beginning for Charlottesville though.

FV3 maps:

Pivotal has Kuchera maps... this is pretty great for Kuchera. Better than the NAM.

I missed this part... are you me? Hotdogs are horrible. Occasionally I'll try one, it'll start out ok, then by the end I want to vomit. No bueno. And for the cheese on pasta people... why? Horrible texture, ruins the taste of the sauce and other ingredients. It becomes cheese and noodles rather than pasta. And if you say you only sprinkle it on, then what is even the point? For the cheese on hamburgers... I share this article https://chicago.suntimes.com/food/say-cheese-not-when-im-getting-a-hamburger/

Deleted the earlier post to make sure that the GEFS wasn't showing any snow/mix Friday, which it isn't, so I think this still checks out. GEFS has been steadily increasing the amount of "snow" shown in its algorithm. If you use this as a way of simply showing the amount of mixed, semi-wintry precip that might occur, it seems to bode decently. Whatever its usefulness, I still always like to see it showing increased potential.

I’ll only eat cheese on pizza. Otherwise it is an unnecessary addition to otherwise good foods. Hamburgers? Sandwiches? Pasta? No cheese, please.

Woah, how did nobody share that Pivotal has good FV3 maps out quickly? Game changer. FV3 is very fast. Has snow developing over the area between 72-78hrs. Solid thump to a lot of ZR.

High skirts offshore faster. Run with a mixed bag of positives and negatives. 00z CMC looks good, FWIW

Little bit of disconnect between offices.

It was a stronger high but slower again so it's not as thumpy a thump as it could've been. Plusses and minuses.

EPS mean a slight step back, bit of improvement in south-central VA.

Thump for DC and MD delayed but not denied. I get people would like it to be earlier but it's not a bad run. I guess slightly troubling given delayed trends.

Snowing everywhere at 96 DC/south/west Thump still looks incoming, thumping central VA at 96.

Pretty similar at 84hr, cold push marginally better, timing looks the same. Light snow into CHO at 90. Below 32 just S of DC and riding down the apps.

Still haven’t been able to make myself move on from Civ V... let me know if you actually get VI and if it’s any good.

Is it the FV3’s fault or TTTs? Fixing the snow ratio would solve a lot of the issues that forecasters have with it and the hype it causes. It clearly counts anything close to frozen as snow.

The ICON doesn’t show any ice at all, whether on its snow map or it’s PTYPE depiction. Uses something called the “True SLR ratio” which tends to be conservative. Snow map would actually be a lot higher if it kept it as ice, verbatim it flips many of us to rain and below 32 at the end of the storm

I'm back in Arlington now, so expect the last second north shift to occur just enough to put Charlottesville into the highest totals.

Since the ICON is a “legit model” we can start talking it’s biases... it always overdoes cold in the MR. I distinctly recall a few times it showed rainstorms as ice storms for a series of runs when no other models does. It gets away with it because there are no fancy snow maps to show and it doesn’t display FRZA/sleet on TTT, but it definitely overdoes low-level cold.

As someone whose been shilling the ICON since the start of winter... this is a day of vindication for me. Oh, and this Saturday storm is the worst. Waste of time and effort. Garbage. One of the worst things I’ve tracked.

It's a big hit for DC/NOVA/MD verbatim. Ice too.

Uh, actually, just kidding. Kuchera is 0" for everyone because temps are bad.

EURO is a fairly big south shift. Not even good enough for CHO. Decent for RIC. From 3" to a T in CHO. brutal actually.