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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    I feel like confluence is one of those things that never trends stronger going into gametime. Maybe it's just the position we usually watch from, but I feel like we're always watching it weaken. Or maybe I'm totally crazy.
  2. NorthArlington101
    The RRFS & the 3k map the 700mb level (seemingly our warm level) cold out similarly and it's deeper/more impressive than the 12k. I'm willing to toss the 12k flipping us quite so fast on those merits. Really need the typical gametime WAA-juicy trend to start hitting some of these higher end forecast numbers, though. Still like 5" as a floor, I hope.
  3. NorthArlington101
    LWX also pretty aggro. We'll see
  4. NorthArlington101
    Wiki article says Falls Church got 13". I totally believe you though... classic DCA crummy elevation screw job.
  5. NorthArlington101
    Not to trigger @mattie g but I know our climo. Gonna hedge the snow a little low. We'll sleet earlier than we want.
  6. NorthArlington101
    I think we'd all sign on the dotted line for this right now? 100%ish chance at WSW snow and then whatever else happens happens?
  7. NorthArlington101
    Yeah, I don't really view this as the mean going down. I mean, I guess it obviously did (lol), but I'm just seeing this as our goalposts appropriately narrowing.
  8. NorthArlington101
  9. NorthArlington101
    I guess... plenty of time to juice it back up a bit and it typically happens in these kind of setups. I'm just happy to not be worrying about surface temps.
  10. NorthArlington101
    I feel like the energy in here is shifting the wrong way for pretty much no reason? If you are holding onto the GFS as anything but a longshot perfect outcome, you're gonna have a bad time. But everything else pretty much tells the same story: 5-8"+ for most people in the metros on the thump then we go to sleetmaggedon. Usual folks out west probably climb above 1'. It's not gonna rain, at least. Gonna be wicked in it's own way.
  11. NorthArlington101
    I agree - was hoping that would lead to a downstream outcome more like the GFS. I believe some of the nerds I listened to saw some positives at h5 in the Euro, but it ended up being drier and flipping us at essentially the same time. So kinda meh overall. Gonna be on repeat all the next 2 days mostly to convince myself but I think I'm fine with 5" then sleet storm.
  12. NorthArlington101
    It does but I'm deferential to the NAMs not being totally wrong and feel like this should be more sleet. We'll see
  13. NorthArlington101
  14. NorthArlington101
    Euro is colder at 850s this run, at least. It’s at least a stop the “bleeding” run
  15. NorthArlington101
    EURO def south with the initial WAA pus, at least
  16. NorthArlington101
    5”+ inches of snow with the thump then we sleet. That’s where we’re rolling. Better than rain
  17. NorthArlington101
    CMC is game. Looking pretty real.
  18. NorthArlington101
    Sporadically on his remaining channels. I'm not actually in any of them - just get them shared through the grapevine and try to pass them along here. Was honking late Jan - early Feb as his favorite period since Jan 2022.
  19. NorthArlington101
    This is the HM storm...
  20. NorthArlington101
    I don't have Kuchera maps but widespread 10-15" - dc sorta gets holed somehow but it's fine.
  21. NorthArlington101
    Flips the sleet lever a little earlier anyway. Still should be a fine run.
  22. NorthArlington101
  23. NorthArlington101
    At minimum all of this is snow on the GFS AI: Most of us lose 700mb by a hair between 72-78... where totals jump to this. Lot of sleet after.
  24. NorthArlington101
    Warmest surface temps I can find. No matter what Ptype, this is gonna be pretty sick at least. Really hard to do this around here.
  25. NorthArlington101
    Correct:
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