NorthArlington101

this would be a lot of fun in its own way. Nuts temperature gradient

I totally get some of these... would be useful for many people to see road closures and how/if snow is accumulating. But some of these seem a hyper-specific and not that useful on mPING, imo, but maybe there is no other platform. The only one I see being legit problematic is the closures one. What good does filling up the radar screen with school/business closures do, especially in really populated zones? More than a couple people marking a delay or closure when OPM has a weather day is gonna make RadarScope a tough read.

Not only that...

Beginning to have “big ones are sniffed out early” vibes - hope it sticks this time

This is a nuts 24 hour mean for this range… jeez.

Just to get it on the record - what do you actually think happens? Always curious what you’re thinking

Sun is still definitely making its way through the cloud deck in Arlington, but seems to have thickened up — 37/21. If things were holding off a little longer tonight I’d chase this in Staunton for the hell of it. By the time the Survivor finale ends though (10pm) I don’t think I’d want to cross the Blue Ridge!

Not sure I buy it personally - temps aren’t really any colder than precious runs + heavier precip wouldn’t be particularly helpful in accretion.

Beet juice!

00z NAM not really coming in colder but the cold looks to stay entrenched a bit longer, fwiw.

Pretty close. One or two more nudges and maybe we could start talking about a quick thump? Maybe we can get our first NAMming of the year in a few minutes. Also - thanks for the reminder on EURO soundings on TTT. Crazy that data is free now.

Marginal event so every bit matters -- 18z EPS keeps nearly everyone 1-2F colder at the surface during the event timeframe. 850s are 1-2C colder -- which is a pretty big jump. Can't see 925s unfortunately.

We are also in LWX "first guess" range. Maybe a bit snowier than expected... considering expectations are for near-nil.

Verbatim, 18z EURO is nasty for the mountains and favored spots but doesn't get much into the metro. Unlike past runs, though, it transitions NMD to snow for a time -- basically jumped the trace line ~50m to the south.

It doesn’t take much looking at the soundings to know that map is unfortunately off base, but it’s a fairly impactful (icy) run for everyone outside of the cities/SE. It’s not horrifically far off at the mids and pretty close at the surface tho - wouldn’t take too much trending to get the ice impacts further East, as others have already said.

Anecdotally, the Canadian hi-res stuff tends to run cold and overdo precip. That said, I’m considering a pivot off from my plans to go to Deep Creek for snow (looking less likely) to head to Staunton if it looks like a serious ice storm. Supposed to head that way Friday night anyway but might arrive a day or two earlier to scout out a real ice storm, if it comes to pass.

Canadian ENS say it’ll be quite slick. Few flip to snow but the highlight is this panel.

Might’ve oversold this but we are substantially more in the game than a few runs ago. Pretty much every ensemble member at least starts as something wintry, which is a big step up from just a few runs ago.

Unsurprisingly, the GEFS are going to follow the OP. Some nice looking (snowier) members in the mix, can share once it runs through.

If it comes to it, I'll be shooting you a DM for ideas. I'm not too picky, but between my own bad decisions/poor vacation timing I haven't seen more than 8" of snow at once since 2016... I'm pretty sure.

If the EURO depiction actually verified... I'd do it. Not how I intended to use the vacation fund, but a good 2' of snow in December would be pretty nice.

That EURO run looks like get a cabin in Deep Creek and enjoy. Been told my work is fully remote till at least the holidays so… very tempting.

Someone smarter than me can correct me if I’m wrong, but what I feel I’ve anecdotally noticed is that these new rounds of updates — which do presumably make the models better — have left people still trying to figure out their biases. As these upgrades get more and more regular, it’s harder and harder to observe a model’s strengths and faults. That’s my guess as to why things seem jumpy and no model seems to be killing it, but who knows. Just a theory.