NorthArlington101

Juiced up and colder. Resolve the exact details later. Enjoying 00z

ICON took a modest jump north. Still very wet. 4-6” DC north

Hmm, NAM kinda interesting with that gulf low...gonna get shunted out to sea tho.  Anyway, nam is just beginning over us at 84.  Got nothing to compare it to...but yeah

That’s @Maestrobjwa ‘s magic trying to summon a SECS

The 18z EPS moistened up a bit. Has a higher higher-end option. Thought it was fine.

Also, remember, 18z Euro stops at 90.  Precip was still ongoing...so could be a bit more accums

Checking the breakdown by hour it ends for everyone outside our far east spots by then.

Caveating this with I enjoy the warming discussion, it's necessary and I plan on being around for 70 more years so I'm interested in the discussion.

That said... it's gonna snow this Saturday nerds. Join the other thread. 

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That's like a classic 90s snowstorm.

Would be happier if we could get slightly colder temps. Cities float around 32/33. Northern/western areas 29/30.

If we can keep moistening up that would help.

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS is pretty nice (in context!!). Not a big one but 2-4 for most of us with 4-6 northern tier 

abscond

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Icon uses euro parts. It’s beating the gfs

Half joking... the dirty secret of weather forecasting and this hobby may be that the GFS is probably worse than the EURO, UKIE, CMC, ICON... maybe even some of the other models from Asia that really get no looks from us because the graphical outputs are horrible. Yet since it's the American flagship it gets the most if not the second most attention. 

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Annual family vacation to guaranteed snowy destinations. That's gonna be the way...

Especially next year's Super Nina, +QBO, +AO, descending solar off a maximum, with continued marine heat waves off Japan and the West Pac warm pool. Did you see the CFS sst forecast in the NCEP ENSO update? Winter 2024-25 is going to be historic... and not in the way we want it.

 

We're a lock for a HECS next year. 

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Looks like an "upside" scenario for sure. Of course TT is missing the best panels.

ICONic

3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

ICON looks nice

Looks like an "upside" scenario for sure. Of course TT is missing the best panels.

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah there’s a ceiling here given the setup, but again, so was the comparison I mentioned.

I think the EPS 90th percentile does a good job at illustrating the possible ceiling. It's obviously fallible as the EPS run it's built on... it definitely did not nail the January storms that all trended up. But a look at the max with the "current" conditions.

We do wind well. Really gusty in DC.

Best EPS run yet

Overnight, which will help.

GEFS was a nice jump south but still too far north. Has the best precip in southern/central PA now. Was in NY/northern PA at 06z

Beware the Last Minute South Trend

6z ICON was an area wide 3-6”. Need it to jump back south

JB says GFS too far North for Saturday.  He likes the direct hit for DMV, I think based on the AI model.  Anybody know where to get that?  

weathermodels.com has the AI-enhanced (embedded?) EURO. I don’t know if anyone here subscribes to it

Man I’ll be honest this jebwalk to work is feeling more like walking in moderate rain lol

EPS still has a modest signal for Saturday.

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

we don't live in Jacksonville or New Orleans.  Seeing non-accumulating sloppy wet flakes in the sky at 34 on February 13th is not a win

2024 D.C. is 1960s Jacksonville

Just now, DDweatherman said:

I think we can argue the comeback thread was successful? This second thread even was UNPINNED before it was re-pinned. 

Even though it didn't work out forum-wide I think it has to go down as 3/3

Makes all those HRRR runs worth it, right? Right?!

Hah… I’m like @Ji . Love the digital chase. Difference is I think I’m less angry when it doesn’t turn out. Never once thought 5” was on the table… but I’m gonna share it and get into it cause what’s the point if you don’t weenie out on a weather forum?

I’d’ve loved an inch… but very happy with the massive flakes spiraling about. Win as far as I’m concerned

Pretty big flakes here now.  I'd say 70/30 snow/rain

Yep. Mostly/all snow now.