NorthArlington101

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

How the fuck are yalls map so different than SV.   SV sucks

Does this look like your map

Almost surely running out of usefulness on the ENS but GEFS moistened up a little - fairly in line with the rest of guidance.

I think we were all looking for a big dog after the insane LR hype of the past month.  This seems...anti-climatic.  I'm still on board for this though.

You’d think we’re at 200% of our season average the way we are scoffing at a 1-2” storm

Did they not run the eps?

That euro run …. lol. I guess we should still wait for the eps

Juiced up and colder. Resolve the exact details later. Enjoying 00z

ICON took a modest jump north. Still very wet. 4-6” DC north

Hmm, NAM kinda interesting with that gulf low...gonna get shunted out to sea tho.  Anyway, nam is just beginning over us at 84.  Got nothing to compare it to...but yeah

The 18z EPS moistened up a bit. Has a higher higher-end option. Thought it was fine.

Also, remember, 18z Euro stops at 90.  Precip was still ongoing...so could be a bit more accums

Caveating this with I enjoy the warming discussion, it's necessary and I plan on being around for 70 more years so I'm interested in the discussion.

That said... it's gonna snow this Saturday nerds. Join the other thread. 

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That's like a classic 90s snowstorm.

Would be happier if we could get slightly colder temps. Cities float around 32/33. Northern/western areas 29/30.

If we can keep moistening up that would help.

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS is pretty nice (in context!!). Not a big one but 2-4 for most of us with 4-6 northern tier 

abscond

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Icon uses euro parts. It’s beating the gfs

Half joking... the dirty secret of weather forecasting and this hobby may be that the GFS is probably worse than the EURO, UKIE, CMC, ICON... maybe even some of the other models from Asia that really get no looks from us because the graphical outputs are horrible. Yet since it's the American flagship it gets the most if not the second most attention. 

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Annual family vacation to guaranteed snowy destinations. That's gonna be the way...

Especially next year's Super Nina, +QBO, +AO, descending solar off a maximum, with continued marine heat waves off Japan and the West Pac warm pool. Did you see the CFS sst forecast in the NCEP ENSO update? Winter 2024-25 is going to be historic... and not in the way we want it.

 

We're a lock for a HECS next year. 

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Looks like an "upside" scenario for sure. Of course TT is missing the best panels.

ICONic

3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

ICON looks nice

Looks like an "upside" scenario for sure. Of course TT is missing the best panels.

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah there’s a ceiling here given the setup, but again, so was the comparison I mentioned.

I think the EPS 90th percentile does a good job at illustrating the possible ceiling. It's obviously fallible as the EPS run it's built on... it definitely did not nail the January storms that all trended up. But a look at the max with the "current" conditions.

We do wind well. Really gusty in DC.

Best EPS run yet

Overnight, which will help.

GEFS was a nice jump south but still too far north. Has the best precip in southern/central PA now. Was in NY/northern PA at 06z

Beware the Last Minute South Trend