NorthArlington101

New expected totals from LWX

For all the jokes about late warnings they did well in January. Excited to see them optimistic.

It's a 4 hour storm.  I'm worried you and I waste too much time dropping to 33.   Euro is 36 at DCA at 1 am...yikes...I think it's wrong, but still.

this is one I’m ditching downtown for to gain my 360” of elevation in Arlington back. And like an extra 2 miles north. I was kinda hoping to ride it out downtown but as I said earlier I’m spooked

Just now, stormtracker said:

SV maps. Thanks

Soon as CWG puts out their bullish map. That 12z run is OK but we're running out of wiggle. I'm officially spooked

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Nah, it's Hartford County S and E

DCA lost .15" of QPF

12z

6z

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

21, it's in on us...heaviest trimmed off at the south...gonna be a tiny bit drier for East and SOuth of Hartford County

more like drier DC south 

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Thats 10:1

True, but I can count on my hands the times ratios have saved me. I'd rather not be counting on them tbh. Nice bonus but I'm pretty positive when @MN Transplant checks the SLR in the morning around the Beltway it'll be like 8:1 lol

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

UKIE looks pretty good. 

3" is kind of my over/under around D.C., and this is the under, thus I reject it.

My comfort is that UKIE maps suck on Pivotal. Possible there is more snow here than it shows. Or less

Good thing these trends didn’t pan out for the last storm, which really went exactly as we thought 12 hours out

2 minutes ago, EB89 said:

Don’t know if this was posted yet. 

Gotta always share the Reasonable "Worst Case" too

3k looks really good. Both NAMs look good with precip. What's the deal with Kuchera? 12:1-15:1 rates are what I thought we were expecting? I would expect the clown maps to be throwing out 6-8+, not actually giving us less than 10:1 rates.

What I think I’ve picked up over the past day is that Kuchera heavily weights ground temps in its formula. There are “other” ways to try and calculate it, and some of the better Mets think they’ll be higher.

I’m expecting 8:1 as always seems to actually fall. Rates never save anyone in the Beltway… but maybe some folks will do better.

Just now, EHoffman said:

Give us the FREAKIN snow maps!

I think the Pivotal maps might've got to the end... but here are the WxBell ones.

12k Kuchera

3k Kuchera

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

@NorthArlington101 is failing us.  Where are the clown maps??  SV doesn’t have snow maps for the NAM. 

Run isn't done on WxBell yet... but it's nice. 

Kuchera



10:1

They are all coming in drier

Meh. I mean we’re talking a difference of 0.05” here and there. We won’t know til after it hits. How many rainstorms are off by a tenth here or there, unfortunately

No ICON. I think it looks good 

Pushed back south… north is the failure mode for DC so I’m happy. But worse for MD/PA border.

If the dual banding thing is real someone will definitely “lose.” Just hoping the loser still gets enough to cover the grass (2”)

While I’m posting tweets… the GRAF lol

https://x.com/miketfox5/status/1758288335070740559?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg

https://x.com/wxmvpete/status/1758305044875587626?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg

I wouldn’t use 10-1 maps. Some places south will have worse ratios. Some places north better. 10-1 is going to be high in places and low is others.  Kuchera is actually better for this one. 

10:1 allows people to make their assumptions, but fair. If you really want to know

where we want it

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

18z RGEM is a i66 special going by qpf field 

yeah, was coming on to say the RGEM looked good enough for D.C... likely unhappy if you are elsewhere.. The high-res version was nice at 12z too... 3+ for most.

 

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Is this where we say “uh oh” and root for a 4th last minute south trend? 

this is the ICON thread after all…

Our seasonal south trend will save us. Or the fact that it's only the ICON. Idk which yet

If the soundings look like the 3k NAM at 6-7z around DC, then I think 12:1 during that period is reasonable. 

I can’t remember the last time @MN Transplant reported in his ratios and we had more than 10:1 in and around the Beltway. That may because I have a godawful memory but I’m never counting on more than 10:1… and should probably be expecting worse.

https://x.com/accurayno/status/1758228497028219199?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg

why is my thing showing 6 inches

Didn’t you read above? PSU just promised everyone a SECS