NorthArlington101

Huge back off up north. This gunna dry up here soon. 

I like this 00z HRRR run with the dropsondes in. It’s no worse for the cities. Maybe slightly quicker

18z EURO pretty stellar for our northerner friends. Send pics tomorrow!

HRRR starting to get a clue at this point:

00z will be telling

https://x.com/kathrynprociv/status/1757185042898465150?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg

Yeah, the guy who helped developed the RAP says it's shit, lol

When the RAP pulls the ripcord it’s gonna be brutal because each run I believe 1% more

Latest HRRRR

Thank you for asking.
Frederick and London  county , becomes snow between 4-6 am with 1-1.5”ph rates for 2/3 hours and 5-7” accumulation  
Montgomery and Howard flips 5-7am with 1-2 hours of 1-1.5” rates and 3-6” accumulation
DC  Fairfax and PG flips 7-8am and snows heavy at times ending between 12n-1pm and receive 2-4”
Anne Arundel and southern Md stay must and receive 0-2”’
I predict an alarm clock setting of 5am
 
 
 

HRRR is gonna work for anyone DC-north again.

I’d give up my Super Bowl gambling winnings for another 50 miles south though

Under did the two snow events and really didn’t get things right until 24-36 in advance.  This event was a big fat Zero 24 hours ago and this thread had zero responses for like 4-6 hours at one point 
im watching radar, wind direction shifts and satellite plus WVapor  now.  Models don’t matter 

3 minutes ago, mikeg0305 said:

I live in Parkton and the snowblower is in the shed. Do I drag that sucker out tonight or what?

Yes because that guarantees a south trend all the way down to Central VA

sorry to kill the excitement but Pivotal's maps are bad. Still... reasonably good north of the Beltway

Just now, nj2va said:

Brutal cutoff. 

I'm waiting for the wxbell map. Pivotal has been far too brutal

weenie mode... but HRRR was a cave to the RAP's depiction. Much heavier precip once we flip to snow. Just saying it how it showed... no comment on likelihood 

HRRR smokes us. Best run yet. @Weather Willthe changeover difference was maybe 15 minutes, tbh

1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

What is the AI Euro?

I can't get the site to load right now for whatever reason - but you can learn more about it here: https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/graphcast_medium-t-z

Graphcast is Google's AI model. The ECWMF runs it after initializing it off it's data, I think

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Your point?

it reminds me of when the HDRPS had 35" inches of snow for Baltimore with no other guidance really agreeing 2 days out in 2022? 2021?. Except with ~15 hours til go time. I think we know how it'll go

23 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Back in the day things would shift north like this every run. 20-40 miles at a time. We’ve got lucky twice this year with it going the other way. Can we do it one more time?

apparently maybe is the answer to my rhetorical question above?

also came back this far in the thread to give a shoutout to the AI Euro. Looks pretty good right now.
 

22 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

3-4 hours of heavy snow on 20z RAP, I-95 and NW

lol it has 9" of 10:1 in DC

RGEM says no unless you are in NE MD. 

Luckily it's the 2nd best model that starts with R

Imagine being on the wrong side of this line. What a curse

2 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

RAP is overdoing the rates, it wants a 3"/hr deathband in DC with the TROWAL. I don't think I've ever seen 3"/hr with a TROWAL on a rapidly exiting system.

well... there's a first time for everything. We live in a new climate