NorthArlington101

Oh heck ya 

10:1


Kuchera

That isn't the UKMET's fault that's an issue with how the maps are generated.  For whatever reason no US outlets provide quality maps for the UKMET.  

.8"  best I could figure - give or take - so wet and slushy. On elevated surfaces. I am five miles slightly southeast from Mappy. 

 
 
heavy sigh.
 
ok. sure. 

Show me the Kuchie!
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Hi RR

Northarlington is gonna post a map that shows like 1".  SV graphics are the worst

It's nice to see the 90th percentile EPS keep ticking up. #upside

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

I hear you...but it did come in a bit wetter...we gotta like that.

thought it was better for sure. 3k looks about the same as it did last run.

6 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

stiill snowing at 45, Ji back edge approaching, little, longer duration about 7 to 8 hr. of snow. Ration better than 10-1.

maybe for the northern folks... kuchera is worse for all but them. Not that Kuchera is 100% gonna nail it, but just saying

QPF up 150% at DCA on NAM!!!!
....from 0.2" to 0.3"

0z Canadian has the same feature of a precip minima over my house.  Dry is the problem.  It's basically 1-3".

0z Canadian has the same feature of a precip minima over my house.  Dry is the problem.  It's basically 1-3".

Hi-Res FV3 looks good

I’d like to see the WB maps. Seems they are always different.

RGEM also says no rain unless you are south of CHO

ICON holds... which it needs to because this is the ICON storm. Has the dual banding structure others have alluded to.

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Well, I guess the 18z GFS will confirm if it's the start of a trend.

least we have the seasonal south trend to fall back on!

good thing it's the NAM  

Just now, stormtracker said:

I mean..I'm honestly not that worried.  But hey, could be right

like I said a couple posts back, I'm pre-worried. For whatever reason losing this one to rain wasn't on my radar.

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

NAM is def more amp'd and warmer so far.   We need to find that happy medium

through 63, north of DC will like. Unsure about the city proper yet.

think its too warm 

So, while not over us yet, the precip out west is definitely wetter.  Difference is like night and day.   Better area coverage out west and wetter.   Gotta see what that does for us

The euro is picking up on something that is likely in this type of NS wave running between the polar and arctic boundaries.  There are likely to be two snow maximums, one just north of the polar boundary along just north of the rain snow line and a second further north along the arctic boundary.  Despite the southern max having the deeper moisture the northern one almost always ends up the actual snow max because of significantly higher ratios.  That might be muted somewhat this time by lower than normal boundary temps even along that "arctic" boundary...but even if temps are only like 30 ratios will be pretty good with the colder temps in the DGZ which is what matters most so long as surface temps are below freezing.  

2 minutes ago, TSG said:

Just about 15 miles should do it. Let's get CHO under some dark green/blue. We've been screwed by the last two events!

Yeah... you guys have. I think I'm good luck for CHO. I thought the 2018-2022 winters down there were pretty decent. Maybe I need a Masters' degree...

Room for a north trend