NorthArlington101

Surface is shot but this could be snow at DCA by HR17, no? maybe barely sleet? HRRR is showing "sleet" til hr19

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Brutal fall line cutoff. I need more

good news for me

18z Hrr is trending a little south 17hr vs 17z 

Brutal fall line cutoff. I need more

WxBell = best maps. It's basically the same as 06z. 

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Still too warm for immediate metro but N/W with elevation this could be something.  But red flag is the Euro is about 5 degrees warmer than the RAP at 12z.  Euro has DC at 39 and RAP at 34.

RAP does what it does because of rates more than anything, imo. I think it's probably wayyyy to heavy. But it's plausible imo to use that word loosely. 

Just now, stormtracker said:

Blah.  I'm. being a deb, but the RAP and HRRRRR?  Don't they kinda suck?

you mean the best short-range models America has to offer? Yeah

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Latest RAP is even better. Literally pummeled. 

yeah RAP says everyone needs WSW stat. and as @Ravens94 would say... still going

If the EURO is right it's gonna be a tough night in the NYC subforum

1 minute ago, Ravens94 said:

Hours to go here too

I didn't realize the RAP was updated w/ the HRRR in 2020... i always kinda thought it was a joke.

Just now, Ravens94 said:

RAP is even better and slower 

RAP stands for Really Always Perfect model... right?

Even Brooklyn has vanished.

I think he’s just tracking the actual snowstorm that his subforum is going to get.

But yeah… eerily quiet. Probably for the best we focus on tomorrow’s oddness before opening this thread again anyway.

We got time for a south trend

Very curious what the EURO does. 6z was on an island... pretty mediocre snowstorm compared to all other guidance but definitely south. What a headache for NYC forecasters

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah I think this is about if/where that narrow frontogen band develops tomorrow morning. Just a little more south trend and extra tuck can get it over me…

6z EPS practically promised us a 10:1 inch. I just want to see snow tomorrow. We're sooo close

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I think we're cooked with this one.  Possible, but not likely at this point.  Seems like a far N and W event.

Win for D.C. is like 30m of flakes. I'll enjoy photos of the NE MD thundersnow blizzard from my office

Just now, Ravens94 said:

DC is in game. Look at the south move

Just now, Ravens94 said:

Yeah slightly drier but this trend at 500 is non stop

D.C. needs one more day. Don't know if we've got enough time 

Just now, Terpeast said:

They went pretty low. Curious as to what's their high end call is

Winter storm watch 

Lol at a WSW being issued when this is their current snowfall map

H5 vort track and strength look similar to me on both. Different qpf maps sure

Problem is you’d think the 3k would in theory be better with the QPF map. I’m willing to toss just to have something to believe in cause this may be it for winter lol

Just now, Terpeast said:

Now that is a beatdown (whether it verifies is TBD)

Doesn't look like the 3k is going to agree... which is too bad.

uhhhh

This would be a pretty nuts 3 hours for CMD

Just now, snowmagnet said:

Of the short-term models, which can we trust? 

Probably none