It looks fairly different on h5 compared to the GFS to my eyes… still things to figure out. Thats probably the optimistic take. Also the fact that we’ve got 6-7 days to go.
I actually like you and am always curious about what you have to say. But that was basically a 30% chance of anything under the sun. 1” is a nuisance - 5” is a WSW. And that ignores the other probs too
Just for the record, not necessarily to be a downer, but GEFS has been on a downhill slide since 00z. 3 runs of the GFS alone does not a concrete trend make, but it’s not great stuff.
I hope nobody actually thinks it’s over. But this is PTSD from the past couple of years. We’ve actually had trackable storms at Days 5-7 in the Mid-Atlantic the past few years, as I’m sure you recall. They just all ended up cutting or too amped
What keeps me sane — knowing that I’ve got a brother in Charlottesville and girlfriends family in Staunton that would hypothetically take me in [emoji6] Long ways to go