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NorthArlington101

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Everything posted by NorthArlington101

  1. NorthArlington101
    A little of the CMC up in your parts is actually on Jan 4 too. 2.5/2 so far - kinda
  2. NorthArlington101
    00z CMC saves winter on Jan 7
  3. NorthArlington101
    fwiw -- 18z EPS was a pretty sizable shift to suppressed for the shot on the 4th. DC went from .2" of precip to .02" in a single ens run.
  4. NorthArlington101
    Worst 18z GEFS run of the season so far
  5. NorthArlington101
    mPING report of snow in FFX city? Guess I’ll look out the window as the precip rolls through.
  6. NorthArlington101
    The 4th event is begging to be put out of its misery but the 18z GEFS has about 5/30 interesting members… similar proportion as the EPS which had like 10/50. Someone merciful would’ve pulled the plug by now
  7. NorthArlington101
    Don’t see a Great Lakes low… steps toward a 50/50 low… issue that time seemed to be confluence. Cold looked better. Lot of ways to fail
  8. NorthArlington101
    I was about to type something snarky about moving to Jackson, MS if you want to see snow in the current base state
  9. NorthArlington101
    18z GFS substantially colder at the surface this run… can see it translating with snow in the SE. you’d think incoming but we’ll see. lol suppressed
  10. NorthArlington101
    Also thought the 18z ICON looked interesting at the end of its run (hr120)
  11. NorthArlington101
    Nice to see - but ultimately slides offshore. Not close to cold enough either. We'll see if the ens can do any better.
  12. NorthArlington101
    I'd feel pretty good about you having something trackable at least for one of those. The lowlands... we've got work to do. Most important 18z of our lives.
  13. NorthArlington101
    Just out of curiosity - did you buy the land and then build the cabin? Or was the cabin there? And rental opportunity noted - seems like a great deal and a cool place if i need to flee west for snow-sanity reasons.
  14. NorthArlington101
    Not much of a difference in the odds between the Thursday storm and the next weekend one honestly on the 12z and the latter is dependent on the former, so might as well play ball w/ Jan. 4.
  15. NorthArlington101
    EPS ens aren't cold enough for Jan 6-8th unless you are out west either, unfortunately. I know the snow mean isn't what you should solely be looking at... but man, what a window /s. Obviously waaay too soon to know, but this looked better 24/48hrs ago.
  16. NorthArlington101
    There are more EPS members interested in the 4th than I'd assumed there would be. A slight step up from 00z... maybe 10 members with something "trackable" in the general area, which is good enough for this sicko. What a look in a winter of old. Right where ya want it alas...
  17. NorthArlington101
    I was almost going to risk something positive by saying I thought the previous wave on Jan 4/5 worked out better because i thought it was a 50/50 low... was that right? or was the timing just off regardless?
  18. NorthArlington101
    if it could climb the coast with any speed it might actually be cold enough at the surface but as you pointed out 850s are shot... it's notsopretty
  19. NorthArlington101
    suppressed anyway
  20. NorthArlington101
    the real trouble (rather than a cutter, at least on recent ens runs) is suppression/just not a strong enough storm. Nothing really climbs past the NC/VA border
  21. NorthArlington101
    Doesn’t make it. T-2” down from Winchester to Cville, more as you go SW with 6-8” around Roanoke.
  22. NorthArlington101
    Crawling up the coast - western and central VA doing alright through 213. Couple of inches
  23. NorthArlington101
    Snowing in favored zones west at 207 on the 12z- temps are marginal.
  24. NorthArlington101
    yeah I like the sun at least, lol.
  25. NorthArlington101
    I think we’re kindred spirits. That’s probably bad news
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