Hate to say it, but kudos to the HRRR/RAP combo for sniffing this out basically since 14z runs. They are going to hit the nail on the head for here and basically hit the northern band in PA, to a degree.
Im not a HRRR disciple by any means, but it can be useful for trends in certain setups. It struggles with southern stream disturbances and does better with NS systems. I think convection within SS disturbances causes chaos in the model. Would be interesting to study.
My forecast earlier was terrible and I really forced what I showed everyone here. I didn’t have a good mental day today, so seeing it snow nicely helped bring up my spirit. Depression sucks, that’s all I have to say.
Have a good night everyone. Enjoy the snow, whatever falls. Truly a treat.