MillvilleWx

I'm reaction limited, so I will say it right back! Enjoy my man. This one is good one for us

It's been a solid crescendo effect on the snowfall already. I started 1.5 hrs ago and already at 1.3". Glorious

Officially 1.3" in Edgewater as of 245 AM SN 25.7/24.4 Absolutely amazing out. Well ahead of schedule

Love to hear it my man! We are solidly racking up the snow here. Haven't measured yet, but got to be pushing towards that 1st inch already. Steady light to moderate snow with heavier echoes starting to push up towards our hoods. Life is good!

Let's go!!!!

I've been waiting for that MCD to come out all day lol Thanks Yoda for the share! Let's keep it rolling

Same lol

Yeah. It's really impressive down there. The system has a long way to go. We just started the goods for the area. Let's keep this party going, shall we

Snow is a steady light variety but picking up in intensity slowly. Everything is completely covered with a solid coating. Storm just begun too. Great start with the heavier returns still off to the southwest with a ways to go.

The modeled Kuchera ratio for this part of the storm is 8-10:1 with 12:1 all the way into Carroll County. It doesn't improve until after 10z when the better forcing arrives, and even then 9-10:1 for DC and 10-11:1 for an average unless under better banding. 12-15:1 for areas along and north of I-70. Kuchera is doing fine so far and the model algorithm snow from the HRRR is also fine. I don't see anything wrong the forecast right now.

Beautiful!

Officially light snow in Edgewater. Every single flake sticking as expected. Temp 29.5/16.3

Sweet! Good to hear. I know it's basically on the doorstep. Gonna step outside soon and take a peek myself

We might not start until after 2am according to the HRRR for the last several runs. So far everything is going according to plan. Every run for you and I has us in 8-12" before the second batch even comes through. We're good!

Good luck down there Navy. Should be a great one for you guys down there!

I apparently ran out of likes and stuff, so I wanted to say thank you

Probably not. Just along the immediate coast, so like right on the water at sea level. All you have to do is live a football field away from there and you'll be totally fine. I wouldn't sweat anything tbh. It's going to snow really good tomorrow morning around these parts.

Hey Jeb! I'm thinking 7-12" with up to 15" is pretty good call. 7" is for right along the bay, but even a small touch away from the bay will likely see 8+". Should be pretty! I'll be sure to get in a snow Jebwalk for you

Honest to God cannot get over these 850mb FGEN proposals on the models for my area and basically the US50. It is absolutely insane and has not budged in its presentation for the last 12 hrs. If that comes to fruition, the lowlands here in AA are going to get absolutely smoked.

It's time! Good luck out there my man

That was quite a jump for the max, but I think that's a case of the potential rates within banding for this one. This has a shot for 2-3"/hr in a few bands during the height of the FGEN regime. That could easily take a total and take it way above the 75th percentile, which is likely what the range was created by (1st and 3rd quartile outcomes).

True! Mainly the totals aspect. Not often we see 16" on a WSW. Handful every 4-8 years. Good luck up there in Northern Baltimore Co. I'm hoping a nice band setups up and the northern tier cashes and everyone gets the goods!

Damn....What an event this is gonna be. Don't see WSW's like that too often

Yeah. I wasn't expecting anything for a while yet. This will be a case things moisten up, start out light and then begin to pick up in earnest once the LLJ cranks into Central VA and the 85H FGEN advances north. I don't think some realize the type of wall that is approaching. Our best ascent is still way to the south. Hi-res hasn't wavered one bit. The only change, and was expected was the tightening of the northern gradient from the confluent area to the north. That's why the maxima is showing up where it is and there are secondary mini-maxes to the south of the primary confluence where the convergence of 7H FGEN and the orographic enhancements north of I-70 will help those areas despite the lower QPF output. Ratios will likely be 12-15:1 on average for those zones. 10-12:1 across the district and locally higher pending positioning in bands from the 85H FGEN. That area seems to lie between I-70 down to just north of I-66 and points east. One interesting note is the primary spot to be with this could end of being a place like Easton or Cambridge, MD over into Sussex Co. DE. That area is right in the crush zone, imo. This is going to be a nice storm. I know it's dry, but it'll be fine. Wet bulbs into the low to mid-20s for many in here. Snow will fall and it will stick instantly. Let's enjoy it!!

Awesome. Right in line with my thoughts. I have the max potential at 14" if we get lucky with banding. Going to be a great storm!