JTA66

It's nice seeing DT going all in (doesn't mean he's right, though). Say what you will about him, he's never struck me as the sort who'll hype cold & snow for the sake of hyping cold & snow.

Made it up to 69F after an overnight low of 65F. I don't mind the mild weather, but a little sun would have been nice. Looks like another weekend where it will be too wet to get much done in the yard.

Wow! Wee Willie Webber and Flexible Flyers -- you guys are really stirring up some old memories. I still have my Flexible Flyer. I've often considered putting out as a Christmas decoration but I'm afraid someone might walk off with it. Still, it's a shame it's done nothing more than sit in the garage all these years. (Great, now I feel compelled to go looking for it.)

First morning of the season I had to scrape frost off the windshield. It will get old fast, but kind of cool doing it the first time under the hunter moon with geese flying overhead.

Currently running +11.1F for the month. I don't see us getting below normal, but I am curious to see how much gets knocked off that number by Halloween. Had a high of 69F at midnight, dropped down to 57F and have since rebounded to 60F.

And you can get out of the shower and not have your clothes stick to you! 58F/53DP. Will probably shut the windows tonight because of the cold

Just hit 72F...my low for the day! Maybe a mini-Floyd for SNJ and Del? How far west of I-95 to the heavier rains extend? Looks like an interesting night ahead.

lol...it was an easy call. Yeah, feels like early August out there. Let's hope this is it. Less than 24 hours from now it's fall!!

Been sitting at 73F since midnight...nailed it!

67F for lows these last two evenings. I have one more day left to score my 70F min or greater (unless this is just an in-and-out cool shot and we go back in the soup for Halloween).

Also only got down to 69F overnight. I'm pretty confident I'll see an overnight min of 70F or greater before this week is over.

All three were El Nino years, but it's interesting how different the summers were. 2002--hot and dry 2006--warm and wet 2009--cool Just goes to show you can never broad stroke and say "El Nino = X" or "a -NAO = Y". All in all I feel good about this upcoming winter. Not saying it's going to be a blockbuster (although with El Nino, there's always that chance). But I don't think it's going to be a dud either. (Hope I didn't just jinx us!)

Yeah, I don't think anyone has demonstrated an actual correlation between Oct snows and crappy winters, but it sure seems to work out that way. In fact, I don't think we want accumulating snow before Thanksgiving. The only time I recall that ever working in our favor was Nov '95. My other rule of thumb is I like a wet fall. I was nervous last year because of how dry in got, but we did end up doing okay (even though winter took a break during the heart of the season).

Getting a pretty good storm right now -- heavy rain, gusty winds and occasional thunder & lightning. Thought this stuff was supposed to die off before reaching us??

Yeah, we're about due for a 70F Christmas Day. Anyway, some additional updates from Accuwx (wish I had better news to share)... Oct-Dec -- Temps +2F or greater. Back and forth mild/chilly. High overnight mins will continue to be a factor. Dec -- More of a zonal pattern. Near normal precip, temps could average 3-5F above normal. Jan -- Coldest air still to our west, but could occasionally work into the pattern. Not much blocking (what else is new?) but some amplification. Could be one or two big snow events. Feb -- Temps 2-3F below average. Most analogs feature a big Feb snow event. Speaking of analogs ... 1986/87 -- Good winter here, I'd take this in a heartbeat! 1994/1995 -- Other than one storm in Feb '95, not much of a winter. 2006/07 -- Seems everyone has this year as an analog. I will say, this summer was very reminiscent to 2006 -- warm and wet. I think we had snow in Dec 2006, then winter took a long break until mid Feb with a sleet storm. Then another sleet storm in mid March 2007.

High of 80F today, currently 76F. Hearing a few rumbles of thunder in the distance but the line of storms looks to be weakening as it approaches.

Quick update from Accuwx -- looks like near/slightly above normal temp with near normal precip. Winter starts warm and wet, finishes cold & snowy for our region. More of a month-to-month breakdown to come.

I'm not on the memo distribution list either. But yes, what a wonderful day out there, been sitting at 73F. It finally feels like September! I rolled the dice and covered up the AC today. I'm sure we're not done with above average temps and humidity. But with the sun setting before 7pm now, the nights should cool off.

Some pretty loud boomers overnight, thought the windows were going to shatter at one point. Morning low of 73F.

Yes, initially it looked like this was going to be a warm week, peaking today -- over the weekend I think they were forecasting mid 80's for today. Didn't get out of the 60's yesterday, topping out at 69F. And it's been lingering in the low 70's today, currently 73F. But those high DPs are back, and with Flo hanging around in the SE into next week, I imagine these high DP's aren't going anywhere anytime soon.

It's been nice having overnight lows below 75F for a change.

Getting a heavy shower, temp down to 76F after a high of 82F.

I think Glen was citing a buoy report near the mouth of the Delaware Bay.

This. I'm not going to pretend to know what Flo's final end game is. I've read a lot (by a lot of ppl much smarter than me) how no storm forming where Flo did has made it all the way back to the east coast. And maybe history will prove right again. But the WAR and been under forecasted all summer it seems. And if I learned anything from Sandy, it's that nothing is ever off the table.

A little gust front just blew through from those storms off to my NW. Dropped my temp down to 86F.