JTA66
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Everything posted by JTA66
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Seems to follow AccuWx summer outlook for us. There will be bouts of heat, but not the long lasting variety. Let's hope so!
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Saw my first lightning bugs of the season last night. I'm sure this upcoming surge of heat will draw them out in force.
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48F this morning, don't think I'll see that again until Oct.
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Flash flood watches are up. If the 6Z NAM is correct, I got 4" of rain on the way. Hopefully that's just the NAM doing it's usual thing.
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^ Got hit pretty good by that one -- big limb down in the front yard. I'd say winds gusted to 45mph. P.S. Anyone else have trouble accessing the site? I've been getting "error" messages since Sunday.
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73F at midnight, now down to 61F. A light shower rolled through around daybreak, but that's about all.
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Storm passing just to my east but I am picking up some rain drops from it. Looks like my high will be 83F for the day, now down to 80F.
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HRRR says it should be raining over me right now. Currently full sun, 82F/68DP.
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I'm just glad it's not winter, on Thursday Glenn said I was getting 3-5 feet of snow! Clouds starting to build, 80F/70DP.
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Rain stayed to my south last night, as well. Currently bright sunshine, 72F/66DP.
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I don't follow the models as closely this time of year as I do in the winter, but I think yesterday's 12Z Euro had the heavier rains over our region. This morning's 0Z run went south, more inline with the other guidance. Let's see if today's 12Z holds serve. But yes, someone under a slow moving t-storm could still see impressive totals, just not the widespread flood threat. 80F/71DP ... disgusting!
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A quick follow up to the post above... Looks like their summer forecast is a continuation of the May-July period -- temps slightly above average with near normal precip. The big heat looks to stay out west over the Rockies. Above normal precip to our west/southwest (Ohio Valley region), this would lead to below average temps there. All in all, I could live with this. Not a fan of those summers where the AC runs weeks on end.
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Bump... Just read Paul Pastelok's (AccuWx) thoughts on the May-July period. He's going with normal to slightly above normal temps. Cooling energy usage will be near average. Looks like near normal precipitation with below normal severe (but there will be some). Confidence is moderate. His June-Aug ideas will be out next week.
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Lolz!! Now we know why we don't see more of Storm Ranger 10 ... http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/entertainment/television/Report-NBC-Bostons-Storm-Ranger-weather-truck-is-actually-based-in-Philly.html
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Umm ... tomorrow night at 11:00, Ch 6 is issuing it's February Winter Outlook. Isn't winter about half over, and by tomorrow night, about 25% of Feb will be in the books?? Wonder if they'll go with BN temps and AN snowfall??
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Paul, does Wxsim forecast wind speeds? Just wondering what it's showing for gusts with this storm. Thanks!
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So, how 'bout that JB? (Just trying to get this thread back on topic.)
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Great minds, brother!
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^This. Ever since they went to the new format back in the spring, their wx segments have become unwatchable. Two minutes of reviewing temps across the region ... zzzzz! Hopefully it's because not much has happened since the blizzard last year, and if we do get a legit storm threat, they'll get back into the swing of things. Not sure if this is Glenn's idea or some new producer at the station.
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Let's merge with the Central/Western States forum. Ray used to post from Elko when he lived out there, now we can return the favor!
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Can we boo and throw snowballs??
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I must say I was pleasantly surprised by how "bullish" Glenn is. I like him because he tends to be conservative and doesn't hype too much. Here's hoping his outlook verifies!!
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I imagine Ch 6 will be little more than a rehash of AccuWx's forecast.
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A little more detail about the above Accuwx forecast from the MA forum ... "According to Pastelok, accumulation may be limited in areas south of New York City, such as Philadelphia, D.C. and Baltimore. These areas will see a handful of changeover systems, where falling snow transitions to rain and sleet."
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Granted, reading comprehension isn't my strong suite, but did DT skip #2? lolz! Anyway ... Last night's 0z Euro doesn't look as extreme, but still way to early to settle on any one outcome. Should be an interesting couple of days model watching!
