JTA66

Looks like the Euro has 1"-2" for me. I'll gladly take since my expectations have been set at virga.

That looks a lot like a storm we had late Feb '10 (I think). NYC on south got blitzed with snow and it was in the 50's and raining in New England.

I've often wondered what's the most snow we could get from one storm in SE PA? Even PDII flipped to IP for a time. Despite how cold it was at the surface, there was warming aloft from a prolonged easterly fetch. If I recall correctly, the blizzard of '96 was all snow (at least here in central Montco).

Yeah, but you gotta subtract the 4" they're getting tomorrow, so it's really only 38" or so. No wonder Ji is upset.

Weenie handbook rule #1: Toss the model that gives the least amount of snow! Seriously, just whiten my lawn tomorrow and I'll be happy. Then we can start obsessing over next weekend's storm.

The Jersey shore got crushed. Sunny skies back here along I-95.

Getting some sun here already. Went to get the trash cans and looked at the lawn, the weeds are nice and green for early Jan.

I'll give it to 1/15 before I go looking for the towel, but that 1994-95 analog is looking better by the day. I tried reading HM's tweets this morning -- sounds like it going to take some time (if ever) for the tropics sort themselves out.

Let's channel George Costanza and do the opposite of every instinct we've ever had. Let's start a thread now for PDIII -- maybe that will jump start our winter.

We certainly have a few superstitions here at American WX -- no radio shows, don't start a storm thread too early, some members are banned from starting storm threads, etc. Of course when we were kids, you better do your homework the night before a storm or it would bust and you'd have school the next day. Hope everyone has a great 2019!

Still haven't replaced my broken rain gauge, but it sure "sounded" like an inch of rain fell. Currently 55F, feels like late March out there. I'm sure everyone saw donsutherland's post in the NY forum that the SOI is now negative for the second consecutive day. Let's hope it's a sign the MJO is moving along and not a hiccup before bouncing back into positive territory.

Flurries!!

The sun popped out here for about 1/2 hour. Again, very reminiscent of a tropical system -- deep blue skies overhead with dark storm clouds on the horizon in every direction. The clouds have since filled in; been sitting at 60F most of the day. The rain gauge is empty (there must be a crack or something) but the sump pumps are running non-stop.

Hmm...will old JB rule of thumb idea about snow within 10 days of thunder in the winter come into play??

Quick update from Paul Pastelok of AccuWx -- still going with a cold & stormy Jan and Feb. More ice events for central and lower mid-Atlantic. He also thinks there can be storms that "will result in one- to two-day disruptions and shutdowns". Fingers crossed!!

^^That would track with most of the winter outlooks I read. Dec would be the "mild" month. It hasn't been so up to this point (but our pattern relax is knocking at the door). Jan is the transition month, but when? Early/late? 2004-05 was a good winter around here, but we punted the first half of Jan with a mild pattern. Even 2002-03 (a year many are using as an analog) didn't feature a great Jan. We had some clippers, but it was mainly cold and dry. I remember looking at the bare ground and thinking we were wasting all our cold. Fortunately we scored big in Feb and now we all remember that winter fondly. Patience Iceman! I'm still not concerned with where we're headed. Even our best winters have uneventful stretches. If the Nino were collapsing or we were seeing a consolidated vortex over the pole, then I'd be concerned. Can this winter still fail? Sure. Maybe were due for a repeat of 72-73 or 79-80. But I'll start worrying about that after the New Year.

Getting some flurries now, too.

C'mon Haz, you've been around long enough to know how this works -- the first week of Dec is already in the books and we haven't had a dozen KU events yet! Time to pull the plug on winter and label it a "bust". Current 28F. I'm taking advantage of today's blow torch to get outside and put up Christmas lights.

Guess you can only ride the pattern-persistence train for so long.

Radar is really blossoming over the AC expressway and the returns are extending back towards the river. Any reports if anything is reaching the ground?

No model analysis here, just a thought on our overall weather since spring: It wants to precipitate. Sure, this event may very well end up squashed/squished/slide off the coast. But jeez, it seems we can't go more than a few days w/o something falling from the sky. I'm not expecting a HECS or MECS, (heck, it might just be a cold rain). But given the pattern since spring, it's hard to believe we'll end up high & dry.

The radar is incredible looking! If I didn't know better, I'd say there was a tropical entity off the NJ coast.

34F/16DP. Thought I saw brine on 309 this evening.

This! For me Nov is the "pre-season" -- tomorrow is just an exhibition game. Doesn't matter if we win or lose, I just want to see how the free agent signings and new draft picks look. Anything frozen that falls on 11/15 is good! I'll take it as a sign mother nature maybe tipping her hand at what this winter has in store for us. I recall too many Novembers with temps in the 70's and no hint of winter in sight.

Here's another one to add to the + column -- Paul Pastelok of AccuWx updated his winter outlook today. Changes to his earlier outlook include taking temps down in the NE while increasing snowfall in the I-95 corridor (DC to Boston). Top analogs include 1986/87, 1994/95, 2002/03. He notes 2002/03 is the best match atm.