KPITSnow

It only goes out to 18 but it is also done snowing in the model by then also. the RAP is not nearly as bad though and is pretty solidly 6-8 inches. I still think this has massive bust potential given that a 25-50 mile shift is going to be the difference between ten inches and 3.

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=HRRR&area=US-NE&ps=area# Take a look at hour 18 totals. Putrid.

? I see it giving us 3-4 inches at most?

What I really want to know is how the modeling can be so consistently wrong in our area so close to events. How many times have we been within 24-48 hours of an event being modeled for a significant storm only to see it be reduced to either nothing or an advisory level event?

Good luck to you all....once again we are going to be getting our 4 inches while you guys get smoked.

The GFS is a disaster. Maybe 2-4 inches. It literally never fails. It is going to be so much fun to watch the returns die as they come over the mountains lol.

We have had one 10+ storm on March 21st 2018, and haven't had a foot plus storm since 2010. It has been brutal.

We had a nice 7 inch storm at the start of December, but those are what we get...our overperfomers get us 7 inches when we are forecast to get 4...meanwhile if you drive 50 miles in any direction from Pittsburgh really you can find places that have had 12-18 inch events when we haven't had a 12 inch storm in 10 years+

When is the last time you had a 12 inch plus synoptic snow?

We are in much the same boat as you guys but these shifts south and East all day have really been bad news for us. I’m pretty convinced in Pittsburgh we aren’t getting even warning level snows.

I’d honestly say to cut back the western expanse if that 8-12 range. I think WPA is going to get a screw job and we will likely end up 2-4 or 3-6. Too much trending East today on models.

That’s better than I thought. I think we will have a good idea where things are heading based on the GFS though.

Here is the newer NAM totalQPF. https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php you can see the notable shifting East in the qpf field.

I’m pretty sure kuchera totals are usually wildly too high. What is the 10:1 totals?

Then block me? It doesn’t change the fact that each of the last few runs have trended towards us being fringed. Yeah, the end result is still decent with about .8 qpf in the area, but that is half of where we were at 12z a s the NAM is notorious for putting out over the top qpf numbers...and that gradient keeps moving further and further East. I am not trolling, but I’m really thinking this ends up as a 2-4 or 3-6 event which would really be a letdown after every model trended towards a 6-12 inch event yesterday.

0z NAM once again trending the wrong way.

It was, yes. That was a whole different set of things that screwed us over on that one. We generally get screwed on these ones too....think January 2016 where you drove 50 miles south and east of Pittsburgh they had nearly 2 feet and I got 4 or 5 inches just north of the city.

We will see, but in general it has been busting low. Our last WSW was that January 2019 storm....it rained all day and didn't snow till about 2AM when we got 2 inches I think. Sorry, given our recent history I am less than confident until the event actually starts. Like I said, we will see what happens with the 0z run models...truly hope that they don't shift any further east or we are looking at a 2-4 event.

Here is 12z for comparison. Hopefully the 0z runs stop showing a correction, or push back a bit further west but if it shifts any further east we are in trouble.

Yeah, it is still good, but is also a fairly sizable shift east, or at least cuts back on the westward extent of good totals. Point is, we have seen this song and dance probably hundreds of times where in the last 24 hours we go from being modeled for a nice WSW level event to an advisory event or worse. It is our climo that it is just very hard to get a significant accumulation in a setup like this for us.

I'm great with 6-10....the 18z NAM and GFS though make me think that a SE correction is coming and we end up more 2-4 or 3-6. A 50 mile shift east would kill us.

Adjusting my call. 2-4 as the last minute model shift to the East happens.

The NAM also made a significant shift.

Not nothing....but I can definitely see it moving to the point we end up with a 2-4 event which would be brutal after seeing the euro spit out a foot plus.

Given how close this is for us that’s a huge difference.