As an area that has a TON of experience with overrunning, the mix line is almost universally significantly north of what is modeled. We've had times that we were supposed to stay all snow and the mix line would end up pushing north of 80 towards Erie.
My experience is that unfortunately warm air always wins...the warm tongue of death is what we call it out here.
@MAG5035 Not sure it is really similar to our overrunning event issues we always have, but I always assume a mix line is going to end up 50 miles + north.