I don’t quite get why anyone is surprised by this, other than this winter hasn’t had one of these...but it is a consistent theme. We’ve seen plenty of times that 2-3 days out all models are showing a foot but the progressive nature of the primary is under modeled and it ends up being a Cleveland storm.
Heck, here have been times where I’ve seen us be worried about being fringed to the south and we end up mixing.
this is par for the course, and anytime you have a primary riding up the valley I expect it to be modeled 100-200 miles south.