WxWatcher007

Why am I supposed to care what people say on another weather board? If you want to argue over their forecast, do it there with them. I haven't seen anybody here seriously argue that 2013 is walking through the door. There's ample evidence that it is not. But the 2004 and 2024 comparisons don't seem apples to apples, and I definitely don't expect something on the order of near 200 ACE when 2024 barely crossed the hyperactive threshold. But if you want to use 2024 as an example, in addition to the historic backloaded season that occurred and historic early season long track category 5, there was also an unprecedented period of virtually no activity right through the late August and mid-September peak. It's indisputable that there are mixed signals. That's not cope lol, it's fact. Despite the SST configuration which lends itself toward more stability in the tropical Atlantic, we have very low SAL as Lowry notes in his recent post. Mixed signal. Though I do think that the changes we're seeing in the tropical Atlantic could lend itself toward less stability if it continues. But I need to see what early to mid August looks like in the MDR. If there's an iron lid, especially toward mid-August, that will not be a good sign IMO. If however, stability isn't an issue in August, that would strongly lend itself toward an active MDR in September. This is the climatological peak of SAL, so even though it's near record lows it's still there for now. Anyone arguing that we're running toward a BN season based on the observed conditions thus far has forgotten that climatology is the definition of quiet through this part of the season. We're still 3/0/0. This look closes off much of the MDR, but look at the homebrew region off the U.S. coast. Unlike past years where the entire basin was being suffocated, the western Atlantic doesn't look abnormally dusty. Mixed signal. Yes, the tropical Atlantic and MDR are warming up, and doing so above the climatological average. That's a big deal in a neutral ENSO state. In our active Atlantic period I think it yells above average more than it did a month ago for sure. That puts me at least right back to where I've always been--lean AN. But these temperatures are nowhere close to 2023 or 2024 and while these configurations may suggest that we see more named storms they definitely aren't the arbiter of what the basin can do with major hurricanes. Remember, it's easy to get a NS, harder to get a H, and very hard to get a MH. For a MH you need enough runway with +SSTa, -wind shear, and a deep reserve of warmth. Whereas 2024 and prior seasons had that in spades, the biggest difference between 2025 and those years is OHC. It's not even close. This was June 2024 Now look at today To be clear, this is closer to normal. Yeah, there's a lot less heat, but we still can and will get MH out of these. But the reserve of heat is not on the level of other years. 2017 2020 2023 2024 2025 So yeah, the signals are mixed. But the current mix of observations and forecasts still suggest that this is an AN season. I don't think hyperactive is truly on the table, but check back August 15.

Potential was there. Looks like your area maximized it.

https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/ You can find the specific product under FLASH on the left side of the page. Can go back in time and everything. It’s awesome.

Not bad

Congrats easterners

More robust from 12z. Nothing particularly exotic.

I’d favor eastern areas honestly, but this is probably a nowcast as the axis of heaviest precip has bounced around some today.

I want to see what the HREF does tonight

Talked about it earlier. Little low looks like it tries to ride the boundary and it’s just a deluge. Last few runs of the HRRR have been frisky too.

Areas south and east of me getting poured on right now. The VIL near Rocky Hill is legit.

Mesolow soaking on the NAM @CoastalWx? Seems like there’s legit FF potential tomorrow. Maybe more so than yesterday.

Euro with a nice stripe right through the region.

Another heavy rain signal somewhere in SNE tomorrow.

Yeah that was a nighttime storm of yore. We’ve missed these.

Recorded .78” in 20 minutes

Absolutely ripping here

@Eskimo Joe I saw an article about Maryland having some sort of flood mesonet or monitoring system. Do you know more about it or where I may be able to find more information?

Mid-Atlantic has been getting crushed repeatedly this summer. Numerous FF and severe reports down there.

That cell to the west looked beastly aloft. Taken in the Hartford area.

I’m thinking central/northern CT has a good shot

Tropical storms being retired is exceptionally rare, but this could qualify given the obscenely destructive nature of its remnants—though it being a post tropical low may hurt its case. Allison 2001 and Erika 2015 are the only two retirements.

I'm not fully sold, but tomorrow does seem like a day to watch in SNE. There could be some localized flash flood risk. Maybe higher end. Here was BOX and WPC this afternoon: BOX Models still indicate favorable ingredients for heavy rainfall. Broad anticylonic flow will advect high PWATs into the region. In some instances values will approach 2.5 inches. Values this high are around +2.5 STD above climatology and are certainly a significant signal for heavy rain. Unsurprisingly model soundings have also hinted at favorable conditions for localized flash flooding. The most notable signals include weak winds through the column, deep warm cloud depths, and tall skinny CAPE profiles. HREF ensembles have started highlighting areas in our CWA with 5-15% probabilites for 6 hour precipitation totals to locally exceeding the 100 year annual return interval. Not every area will see heavy rainfall tomorrow, but any storm that forms in this environment will be capable of producing rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour. Communities most at risk include poor drainage and urban areas with little in the way of permeable surfaces. WPC ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Post-tropical cyclone Chantal will be exiting east of Cape Cod to start the period as it continues to get caught up in increasing southwesterlies downstream of a trough approaching from the Great Lakes. This trough will continue to translate eastward through the day, but will be slow to advect due to downstream Bermuda-type ridging. Between these two features, SW flow will remain prevalent over the area, with 850-500mb winds being nearly unidirectional from the W/SW at 15-20 kts. This will result in a continued extremely moist environment with PWs likely eclipsing 2" from eastern VA through southern New England Tuesday afternoon, coincident with a plume of SBCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. Into these impressive thermodynamics, a shortwave embedded within the mean flow will traverse northeast ahead of a cold front and along a surface trough, providing additional ascent atop the already impressive convergence on these boundaries. This suggests showers and thunderstorms will become widespread, which is additionally supported by high-res CAM simulated reflectivity. Storms that develop will move very slowly, and Corfidi vectors collapsed to just around 5 kts will support backbuilding and training echoes along the surface trough and front. With warm cloud depths potentially eclipsing 14,000 ft, this will support efficient warm-rain processes and rain rates above 2"/hr at times. Where training occurs, this could result in total rainfall in excess of 3", with instances of flash flooding possible across much of the I-95 corridor from Richmond, VA to Portland, ME, and a slight risk has been added for this area.