WxWatcher007

Peak season forecast going down in flames. MDR might as well be another planet. Nice job on the track. I think once we saw lightning going off upshear that should’ve told us what was coming. Having a FL wind of 106kt at landfall is pretty wild. That said…if this were 2020 or ‘05 or any true high end season that thing would’ve taken off as soon as it developed that first inner core off the Mexico coast and not looked back. Dry air be damned. I think it’s true that this is a quality over quantity season, but far from hyperactive or high end as a season.

I didn’t end up in the center, but this hurricane was legit in the region. Flash flood emergencies through metropolitan New Orleans (top ten daily rainfall) along with multiple hurricane force gusts in SE LA. Not like the monsters Ida and Laura, but a solid cane in its own right with RI up through landfall. The last FL wind I saw was 106kt and I saw a report of a 97mph gust west of NO. That’s impressive considering where this thing was structurally last night.

Flashes all night here

Just recorded a gust of 40.1mph

Business definitely picking up now lol

Business picking up…

Pressure here down to 1001mb with the wind gradually picking up. Nothing that impressive yet other than the clouds off the deck absolutely screaming by. Edit: but the power is flickering more

Last VDM had a FL wind of 102kt so despite the conditions Francine more than held its own until landfall. Impressive.

Pressure starting to fall a bit as winds pick up. First time it’s looked tropical out.

Francine up to cat 2

Category two now with max sustained winds of 100mph

This is quite impressive given the environment. Definitely defying the guidance that had decay at landfall.

99kt FL wind on the latest VDM

The hours before landfall as the eye wobbles are the absolute worst.

Yup, looks pretty steady state to me on this pass. Extrapolated pressure of 974.9mb in the center with peak FL winds between 85-88kt.

They turned back toward the storm. Approaching the center now. Peak SFMR of 72kt so far. Will wait until the pass completes for pressure data.

Tornado watch coming for SE LA. Meanwhile the pressure is hovering between 1008-1009mb here at my location. Still pretty calm. Mesoscale Discussion 2052 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern Louisiana into southern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 111728Z - 111900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The threat for at least a few tornadoes is increasing across portions of southern LA into far southern MS. A Tornado Watch issuance will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery has shown a gradual increase in the intensity of convective cells embedded within the broader rainbands associated with Hurricane Francine, which are attempting to move ashore. Surface temperatures/dewpoints in southeastern LA are in the upper 70s/mid 70s F, which are contributing to 500+ J/kg MLCAPE. At the same time, low-level shear continues to increase along the Gulf Coast, with the HDC VAD profiler showing increasingly curved hodographs, with nearly 200 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH noted. Low-level shear should continue to increase through the afternoon, with a subsequent increase in tornado potential likely as well. Given the increasing severe risk, a Tornado Watch issuance will be needed soon. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/11/2024

Adding the loop

It has definitely earned my respect this season.

Like Manda said, those higher winds still have to verify at the surface and I’m skeptical of that if the system is leveling out or weakening at landfall later. The inner core did do a good job of prohibiting dry air entrainment this morning to allow for this deep convection to persist, but that’ll become harder as the day progresses. I can see an official landfall of 90mph, but few sustained obs of 75-80 and scattered gusts thereabouts. I don’t see a secondary vortex, I think that’s the eyewall itself just becoming better defined partially.