WxWatcher007

Center sonde of 948mb with 8kt wind.

130-136kt FL winds on the east side. My goodness.

Just to level set, the 2am advisory had Helene at 85mph and 971mb. Now, Helene is at 125mph and 951mb, with the deepening rate increasing. Despite all the conversation today, we have objectively met the definition of rapid intensification and done so in 14 hours. How far it goes, who knows, but Helene will be added to our list of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones on final approach.

I’m thinking the same—somewhere in the western part of the county. Of course that puts much of the county right in the RFQ, which could be high end if intensification continues through landfall ~6 hours from now.

Nice. I love their work. Hopefully they don’t have to go far lol.

Wow. That’s a 7mb drop between dropsondes.

CAG signal continues into early October. Expect another Gulf system…

Fuller update

It has been quiet all day here in Perry. There has been plenty of heat and humidity but virtually no rain as everything has set up west of here. I drove around a bit earlier and the roads have cleared out substantially as stores close and board up. I’m actually surprised that a lot of places haven’t boarded up. If the heading holds, we’re likely to get a big hit. Some of the damage from prior storms still remains. I’m cautiously optimistic about my spot. I’m in a good building with a number of reporters, chasers, and national guard. Of course a lot of locals are here too. This is by far the hardest part of a chase: the anxiety of watching every frame of the radar to make sure you’re in the right location. Will probably start my pressure trace in an hour or two if the storm heading holds.

Good luck up there. Stay safe.

Cautiously optimistic Perry is the right spot. The roads have emptied for the most part and stores are closed. Final hours before impact. Hot and dry here as the worst of the rain has set up west of Tallahassee.

Venice gusting to 55mph. Tampa just short of TS force gusts.

This is pre NHC update, but eastern areas are in line to get hit really hard. Keep in mind though that the hurricane intensity models make the wind field more symmetrical upon landfall. West of eyewall is likely to get hit hard too.

I read somewhere earlier this season that the NHC was reviewing the SFMR generally because of measurement issues. I’ll see if I can find where that came from.

Center sonde was 960mb with a 7kt wind.

It’s going to be extremely bad there.

My wife prefers I come home. I prefer wind. Storm chasing. I’ve documented a variety of hurricanes/blizzards/severe around the country (and Canada once) for almost a decade now. Usually my stuff gets picked up by outlets but for tropical, my chief passion, I love to forecast, document, and measure the impact of hurricanes.

Yeah, this is actually my second time here (Idalia). The road network provides me with quick options and yeah, definitely most developed in the area. I don’t have any interest in being in a surge zone so I’m typically more inland. Also, WPC has significantly expanded the high risk to include much of GA, including metro Atlanta.

Yeah that’s what I’m thinking right now.

Decided to hang in Perry for now but will reassess a little later when I have a better long term motion of the eye. For now, a bit far but obviously getting closer. Activity has definitely picked up around here as Helene approaches. Stay safe everyone in the path.

At the landfall point it’s a touch west of the 5am advisory but still east of the 11pm advisory. We shall see…this is a nowcast at this point.

Speaking to the asymmetrical wind field. Seeing 114kt at that height is interesting.

One of the main differences from a few days ago is that the hurricane intensity models really peak this as it’s making landfall. That has its own implications if correct with regard to mixing winds down, but those models really crank the east side while only making the wind field more symmetrical this afternoon and evening. HWRF as an example, even if a bit overdone, I’m looking at structure here.