WxWatcher007

That's one of the things I love about tracking tropical. I've been doing it since I was a kid and while you have a lot of data available to you, sometimes it's more chaotic. I will say though, the intensity forecast from the NHC wasn't that bad. I think at their peak they had a 90 mph storm, but when it struggled after the shear the forecast went down to I believe 80 mph. We knew it'd weaken on final approach and it did. Globals were not nearly as good with intensity. I thought there was about a 20% chance of Henri overshooting the forecast when I saw that cyan ring on MW yesterday, but it could never fully close off an eyewall. While you can be steady state or gradually intensify with a partial eyewall, it's very hard to be a significant TC without a fully formed eyewall. I'm usually hurricanes or bust but because it was so close I went down to RI to chase. Wish I could have gotten to a beach.

If a CV monster walked through the door we'd still have some posters downplaying, complaining, and calling bust as the the Great Hurricane of 2024 obliterated power grids and sea walls

Hard to not be IMBY centric when most of our passion for wx comes from experiencing it. It's just something to live with here. But on a global scale, winds fell short. Decaying TCs are like that. I thought the duration of the event would compensate for the weakening but it didn't in the wind category. Rain TBD for some areas.

Glad someone inland verified at 45 lol. Drove down to Misquamicut and had to stop short of the beach. When the core was coming in the flooding was everywhere. Looks like everything down there got shut down shortly after I turned back as roads became impassible and I watched the center come in through Westerly. Good wind, but the best stuff would have been right on the shore. Got a low pressure reading of 994.5mb in Westerly. Drove back through SE CT and intersected the center again. Very heavy rain. I-91 in Wallingford closed to flooding and Rt 2 in eastern CT closed as well.

Getting smoked out there.

Why stop when it clear works for him

Radar is great but always helpful to get these center fixes on final approach. Doesn't mean much in the whole scheme of things with impacts but good for the s out there.

3-5" radar estimates in parts of Jersey. Crazy water there.

Extrapolated pressure 986.4mb on that pass, so it's holding for now in terms of pressure.

Center definitely looking more ragged on those latest radar frames. Recon about to make another center fix.

Guess I’m up now. Not seeing any big SFMR readings on recon but the structure is probably the best it has been yet.

Some of those waves on TWC at Montauk earlier were unreal.

I thought it had enough time to get it together and make a run at higher end 1 before weakening on final approach, but longer lasting mid shear and dry air never allowed it to get going.

Rains look big time. Coastal flooding looks legit. No matter what happens with wind or landfall spot I'm glad I hammered hydro home.

There's been an eye for the better part of the day. Having an eye isn't the issue IMO. The issue is wrapping convection completely around the eye consistently enough to allow for the engine to rev. Hasn't happened up to this point and I don't know why things would be much different as it passes the GS. Maybe it'll get it done here but kind of late in the game. Yeah, I guess so. My call has been made so whatever happens happens. It's on radar now so I'm in chips fall i.e. mode.

Yeah. I really mean this part

Also interesting to me that they seem to totally discount the GFS and Euro taking this further west over New England before turning east.

I acknowledge my bias since I forecasted a LF further west, but it seems odd to me that they mention going east again and said this: A turn toward the north-northwest and a slower forward speed are expected on Sunday, which should bring the center near or over southern New England or Long Island between 18-24 h. With the more eastward initial position, the forecast track is shifted a bit to the east of the previous forecast. However, there is still some uncertainty of the landfall point, as several of the guidance models are to the left of the official forecast.

Yep. Just never pulled it together. Been the most likely outcome since that shear almost gutted it, but I am still impressed by how it held on.

Noticed that too, but be careful extrapolating too far out. These things have a tendency to wobble back and forth. I've been following. Big rains there. Downright tropical downpours, no pun intended. Too little too late IMO. It may intensify a little but to me it's just a question of whether it can be steady state enough to not fall apart on final approach.

Final call. Still expecting a multi-hazard high impact event in CT, with flooding potential the headline. https://www.southernconnecticutweather.com/forecasters-discussion/high-impact-event-expected-in-connecticut-as-hurricane-henri-is-poised-to-make-direct-impact

Ummm Time for me to delete my FB

Kinda related but it is absolutely dumping in the NYC area from that IVT/quasi-PRE