WxWatcher007

As soon as I saw the first video of him driving toward the path of the tornado, I knew whatever followed wouldn’t be smart.

There is a massive TDS just north of Philly

DON’T YOU STEAL MY SNOW

Congratulations! I’m so happy for you!

Might have been a brief TDS at the 4:36 scan and the immediate one after.

Holy crap

TDS on that cell now

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1128 AM EDT Wed Sep 01 2021 Day 1 Valid 16Z Wed Sep 01 2021 - 12Z Thu Sep 02 2021 ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... 16Z Update... No changes have been made to the ongoing risk areas throughout the country. For the Northeast offices, latest Hi-Res continues to place the swatch of heaviest QPF along the southern portions of PA northeastward into northern NJ, CT, and RI. Extremely dangerous and deadly flooding is possible within this region throughout the rest of the day and into this evening. Numerous flooding events have already been reported with water rescues taking place. See MPDs 0919 and 0920 for more details on the current situation and expected evolution.

I expect significant to major river and creek flooding.

Yeah down here the rates and widespread nature of the rainfall could make it really ugly. BOX is using some strong language in the flash flood watch, as they should.

Tuning up the shovels to do self burials because the Reaper is retired?

Is it ever not toasty?

That’s incredible…and my concern up here tonight…

That’s wild

High risk expanded a little further north through CT Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 428 AM EDT Wed Sep 01 2021 Day 1 Valid 12Z Wed Sep 01 2021 - 12Z Thu Sep 02 2021 ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...Northeast... Signals remain strong for potentially deadly and damaging flash flooding from parts of the Mid-Atlantic region across southern New York into the southern portion of New England today and tonight...especially across highly urbanized metropolitan areas and areas of steep terrain...later today as Tropical Depression Ida moves through the area. The latest WPC QPF guidance maintained areal average rainfall amounts of 3 to 8 inches with isolated higher amounts from western Maryland and Pennsylvania northeastward across southern New York and into the southern portion of New England. High resolution guidance continues to support higher amounts embedded with this area...with amounts in excess of 8 inches still in the realm of possibility. While the NAM NEST and HRRR produce hourly rainfall rates sufficient to produce flash flooding, concern grows when precipitation reaches far eastern PA into New Jersey and southern NY which was still hydrologically sensitve since the passage of Henri. There was a bit of a northward shift in the latest global guidance, but the risk area largely maintained continuity with the previous runs and the previous ERO.

Warning east of Charlottesville extended BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1156 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Albemarle County in central Virginia... * Until 1230 AM EDT. * At 1156 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Charlottesville, moving northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Albemarle County, including the following locations... Cobham, Cismont, Campbell, Boyd Tavern, Keswick, Stony Point and Shadwell. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3801 7843 3818 7836 3813 7821 3806 7826 3796 7835 TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 218DEG 21KT 3803 7838 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1149 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021 The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northern Nelson County in central Virginia... Southeastern Rockingham County in western Virginia... Northwestern Albemarle County in central Virginia... East central Augusta County in western Virginia... The eastern City of Waynesboro in western Virginia... * Until 1215 AM EDT. * At 1148 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Afton, or near Waynesboro, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Crimora around 1200 AM EDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Afton Mountain and Greenwood. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3798 7882 3802 7890 3825 7883 3819 7862 TIME...MOT...LOC 0348Z 205DEG 25KT 3804 7884 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN $$

FFW up for Charlottesville

Looks nasty on radar

Congrats to @yotaman, @sojitodd, and @Eskimo Joe who correctly forecasted the Port Fourchon landfall location. Congrats to @Cashtown_Coop for accurately predicting the minimum pressure of 930mb. Congrats to @alexderiemer, @cheese007, @MillvilleWx, @Jonah Cashtown_Coop, and @AU74 for correctly predicting the maximum sustained wind at landfall. Finally, congrats to Yotaman, Cheese007, @WinterWxLuvr, and @BuffaloWeather for correctly predicting maximum sustained wind overall.

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 410 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Day 2 Valid 12Z Wed Sep 01 2021 - 12Z Thu Sep 02 2021 ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... 21Z Update... ...Northeast... Heavy signals and strong model agreement for portions of southern PA northeastward into northern NJ and southern NY has led to the issuance of a High Risk for flooding. The latest Hi-Res guidance has really narrowed in on this corridor with 4 to 6 inches possible and locally heavier amounts near 6 to 8 inches not out of the question. HREF probs for ARI exceedance of 100 years was well over the 95th percentile for this region increasing confidence even more. Models over the last 12 hours have shifted things a bit further north, and the surrounding Moderate, Slight, and Marginal Risk areas were adjusted to account for this shift. Much of this area is still recovering from Henri and already has fairly low FFG.

D2 High Risk just issued...

Also has the period of wind too, especially along the coast.

I whipped up a quick thread but if it isn’t the time I’m happy to can it lol

A significant rain event looks increasingly likely as the remnants of Hurricane Ida merge with an incoming trough and rides along a warm front. It’s a juiced up nor’easter! Discuss