WxWatcher007

Also interesting to me that they seem to totally discount the GFS and Euro taking this further west over New England before turning east.

I acknowledge my bias since I forecasted a LF further west, but it seems odd to me that they mention going east again and said this: A turn toward the north-northwest and a slower forward speed are expected on Sunday, which should bring the center near or over southern New England or Long Island between 18-24 h. With the more eastward initial position, the forecast track is shifted a bit to the east of the previous forecast. However, there is still some uncertainty of the landfall point, as several of the guidance models are to the left of the official forecast.

Yep. Just never pulled it together. Been the most likely outcome since that shear almost gutted it, but I am still impressed by how it held on.

Noticed that too, but be careful extrapolating too far out. These things have a tendency to wobble back and forth. I've been following. Big rains there. Downright tropical downpours, no pun intended. Too little too late IMO. It may intensify a little but to me it's just a question of whether it can be steady state enough to not fall apart on final approach.

Final call. Still expecting a multi-hazard high impact event in CT, with flooding potential the headline. https://www.southernconnecticutweather.com/forecasters-discussion/high-impact-event-expected-in-connecticut-as-hurricane-henri-is-poised-to-make-direct-impact

Ummm Time for me to delete my FB

Kinda related but it is absolutely dumping in the NYC area from that IVT/quasi-PRE

Unflagged 66kt SFMR on this latest pass NW to SE. SE has consistently been the strongest part of the storm. Edit: along with 73kt FL winds.

I posted the first call yesterday. I will post the final once I write it. Haven't been able to sit down and write yet.

So I guess this is what we talk about in between model runs during the summer

This. And given the fact that Henri has always had a broad wind field it's possible we see pressure drops and just have a broader wind field rather than more intense center.

I wonder what they will find on the NW to SE pass. The SE side has consistently had the strongest FL and surface winds. Wind field does good better generally from what I see so far. That October storm was one of the most incredible things I've ever seen. I was lucky to never lose power, but people just a few blocks over lost it for ten days.

I hear ya. I don't think a lot of people trust them to be prepared.

984.0 mb extrapolated on that recon pass.

Thing is we've had so many big extended power outages you can't blame us if we have a lot of concerns with that. Eversource is already priming us to get ready for another round depending on how bad this is.

He's out in Utah now, but we still collaborate at SCW. I know I probably talk about wind too much to some but I hit hydro hard last night in the first call and hitting it even harder tonight in the final. That's always been my biggest concern.

Oh man, how could I forget. Good times. Bun me good sir.

God rest his soul. No I'm not. Just pointing to the possibility that there's enough of an inner core to organize at a faster clip. I don't think that's too far out there as virtually all the guidance has some deepening over the next few hours. I'm not calling for a 2 or 3 lol.

I knew I'd get a weenie for that post

With the caveat that recon would be an even better indicator, the eye of Henri looks pretty good as it begins to cross into the Gulf Stream. It looks circular with convection (albeit weak) wrapping around it. You can also see fast low level motion that may be indicative of a tighter and stronger wind field. Of course, we don't know if winds are mixing down or if the pressure is dropping, but it looks good. If crossing the GS can pop some hot towers and evacuate some of the residual dry air, it could quickly improve in presentation and organization in the few hours before reaching cooler waters.

Quincy gave the Air Force base a call and complained about the waste of taxpayer money on Henri recon flights

Not sure what happened with recon but right before their SW to NE pass they picked up altitude in a hurry and turned back. Would be a shame if they couldn't do the mission.

Super early advisory out from the NHC.

The weenie in me would take option 1 all day. Far more impactful to have the flood and the wind, though I won't have power for a week lol. Thanks. I'm still think landfall between New Haven and Westerly. Last night I said Old Saybrook for the precise location. For inland I'd probably put peak gusts between 45-55 mph.

As we wait for recon, I think it'll be important to see how much tighter the wind field has become and how strong the inner core is. Remember that in prior recon runs the strongest FL winds were well to the SE of the center. Really need those winds being close to the center.