WxWatcher007

Whew boy

We’re in the same boat lol. Maybe today things switch up and south of me gets the goods.

First severe warning up on the MA/NH border.

Adding a visual to Wiz’s comment

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong-severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, northern-stream flow is becoming characterized by broadly cyclonic character across the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes and Northeast, with the Great Lakes part being nearly zonal. This is in response largely to the presence of two dominant cyclones over Canada: 1. A long-lived gyre over the James Bay region, forecast to move eastward across northern QC. A shortwave trough over its southern sector is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from the northern ON/QC border across northern Lake Huron and portions of Lower MI. This trough will pivot across southern QC and the St. Lawrence Valley region today, with its southern fringe glancing the northern NY/northern New England area. A weaker, trailing vorticity lobe will move eastward from Lake Erie across NY this afternoon/evening, then weaken as it crosses New England. 2. A strengthening vortex digging southeastward from the SK/NWT border region across northern MB. Heights will fall across the Dakotas late in the period (overnight) as a basal shortwave trough approaches. In advance of that, a small shortwave trough -- initially apparent over southeastern MT/northeastern WY -- will move east-southeastward to central SD today, while weakening, then across southern MN overnight. At 11Z, the surface analysis showed a cold front from western NY across central OH, the lower Ohio River Valley, and MO Ozarks, becoming a warm to stationary front across southern KS to a low between LBL-GAG. By 00Z, the cold front should reach eastern New England, southern PA, eastern KY, western TN, then become a wavy/ quasistationary front over southwestern MO and southern KS. By 12Z, the front should extend across NJ to eastern KY, then quasistationary near its previous position across MO/KS. A separate cold front -- related to the trailing northern-stream cyclone over central Canada -- will move southeastward across the northern High Plains overnight, reaching from eastern ND to central WY by 12Z tomorrow. ...New England and northern Mid-Atlantic region... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form through this afternoon along/ahead of the surface cold front, near a prefrontal surface trough, and farther south over portions of the Virginias, over strongly heated higher terrain in the warm sector. An existing plume of clouds/precip and widely scattered embedded thunderstorms, from northern ME into PA, should continue to break up gradually on the north end this morning, permitting some destabilization in its wake, but also setting up localized to mesobeta-scale areas of differential heating that may aid storm initiation from midday into the afternoon as well. Scattered damaging gusts, and several severe/50-kt gusts, are possible with the midday/afternoon activity. A marginal/conditional tornado threat also may exist over northern areas, where low-level and deep shear will be the greatest under relatively maximized flow aloft. Instability generally will increase with southward/southeastward extent away from the early cloud cover, as well as between it and the front, under cooler air aloft. Meanwhile, boundary-layer moisture will remain favorable across the entire swath (i.e., surface dewpoints upper 60s to low 70s F). This will offset modest midlevel lapse rates to foster a plume of MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg from northern VA and the Chesapeake Bay area, narrowing northeastward to the southern/eastern coastal areas of New England away from marine-layer influences. MLCAPE should diminish northwestward from there, but still may reach 500-1200 J/kg over ME, except for Downeast areas with onshore flow. Forecast effective- shear magnitudes range from a supercell-favoring 40-50 kt over northern New England to around 20-30 kt or less across central VA to eastern WV, though a more strongly-heated, deeply mixed boundary layer may develop in southern areas in support of pulse/multicell gust potential.

Will those lapse rates remain through the day, though? I like seeing DCAPE over 1k but I have to admit I’m still a little skeptical. Still think it’s active, but maybe not realizing today’s full potential. I’ll readily admit though that I’m far more in my wheelhouse with tropical than severe.

There is very little reason at this time to think this season will end up anything other than above average, though the MDR is a little cooler than I'd probably expect. That said, below the surface, things still look fine, especially in the western Atlantic. The monsoon trough is an issue right now in the MDR, but that won't last forever and even if it did have an extended stay, as CV season begins waves often muddle through a hostile eastern MDR to find more favorable conditions further west. No concern over a busted forecast at this time. As for the steering pattern, that's hard to predict five days out let alone 4-8 weeks. Stick with climatology and the statistical analysis of past activity. The more active, the greater the risk to the US and Caribbean.

I was watching that line and then the radar went down. Looked pretty good pre-passage lol.

Agree. I do think the shear forecast will make tomorrow interesting, even if instability is capped for lack of a better term. I am just dubious of the "outbreak" language in that FB post.

I don't know about tornado outbreak...I care less about CAPE for that and more helicity especially near the surface. I do think tomorrow has some potential for damaging winds and maybe a couple spinners if we don't get crapvection in the morning. SPC didn't hint at an ENH this afternoon, but let's see what tomorrow holds. It does look pretty legit on paper IMO.

Those are some nasty storms to the west.

That’s a nice line on the 3k NAM tomorrow.

I’m being whiny because I’m not in the century club, but in all seriousness, the last time HFD hit 100 in August was 2001. It was 2006 for BDL. July is really our month for upper echelon heat to be realized. Six day heat wave with 4/6 days at or above 95 is impressive though.

Looks like there’s always next year for me to hit 100. Lot of fails down here lately.

They got it. Congrats BOS.

96 here.

93 here at noon. Gonna need to fire on all cylinders to hit 100 imby today.

Letting go how those storms in CT evaporated on Thursday, tomorrow looks legit if we don’t screw up destabilization.

83.9/74 at 9am here. Not sure I can touch 100 today. ENH risk out in western NY.

Just a little too much shear and dry air right now. Really need the basin pattern to get a little more favorable. Just not there yet but it’s coming. You can tell by how the guidance is starting to get traceable waves across the Atlantic in about 7-10 days.

High of 95.7. Underperformer.

Did some yard work this morning. Definitely hot, but not the worst.

90.3/70 at noon.

We torch. 83.8/72

As a Sox fan, it’s unbelievable