WxWatcher007

Thanks. Not saying it’s right obviously but that would be nasty across much of the area.

12z HRRR would be wild

Yeah, for those following--this was never going to be purely tropical. We're talking about possibly a shallow warm core system. To be tropical it would need to shed the fronts it's attached to. But the title is what it is for a reason. We're talking hybrid here or maybe subtropical if things break right. Convection near the center, banding features, etc.. All that is still on the table once this really ramps up later today and tonight. As it stands however, we're all systems go. Good pressure falls are underway and our storm is organizing right where we want it. Big rainfall is still on the table along with significant winds especially along the coast. Euro is still most robust between it and the GFS on 925mb winds. Close call for mixing on the soundings.

Happening as we get closer to gametime too. Might be converging toward that middle ground I talked about last night. Another 50-100mi north wouldn't be outrageous. This is still a tough setup to precisely predict.

Rain forecasts from the GFS and Euro at 00z. Ugly stuff from the Euro.

18z Euro was pretty wet. Sorry if someone posted earlier.

Latest microwave for Fay. It has another window to do something. We'll see if the second time's the charm.

Look at that first loop!!! That's 100% tropical. Look at that convection wrap tightly around the center. Beautiful. Riding right along the Gulf Stream. Perfect location.

Ray's favorite.

I still think that's a bit too far south, but idk. That's the difference between meh and something far more impactful.

Hugging that coastline

Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Northern Worcester MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Northern Middlesex MA- Including the cities of Willimantic, Springfield, Ayer, Fitchburg, Vernon, Union, Hartford, Putnam, Windsor Locks, and Barre 146 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts between 35 and 50 mph expected. * WHERE...In Connecticut, Hartford CT, Tolland CT, and Windham CT Counties. In Massachusetts, Northern Worcester MA, Northern Middlesex MA, and Eastern Hampden MA Counties. * WHEN...From noon Friday to 2 AM EDT Sunday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The long duration of the winds coupled with heavy rain and fully leafed trees may exacerbate the risk for tree damage and power outages.

My only concerns with keeping it warm core longer are 1) the SSTs once you pass Cape May and 2) the amount of time this will need to contract and organize. We're not looking at pure TC genesis here, so maybe both those things are moot, but if you want tropical from a sprawling area of low pressure you usually need a lot of time. If this were hanging out over the Gulf Stream longer, sure, but I don't think we'll have that here.

Yup. That's exactly what I'm thinking. First max maybe over Long Island (or in reality coastal CT) and a second max up near Boston. I think the Euro is going to be robust. The trend definitely seems to be more amplified today so far.

I can def see a SW CT jackpot for rain.

And this is the GFS. A further north track with decent mixing would put good gusts into much of southeast New England and maybe into CT. This is HFD at 18z Saturday.

Really starting to see that rain signal appear @weatherwiz. As for wind. Boston Groton New Haven

Fay is back from the dead, we have an invest near the CV islands, and possible subtropical development coming off our coast.

EPS probabilities are very high for some type of warm core development. You definitely don’t see these often in this region. If we see a continued trend on guidance of a deeper system this will only increase imo. Like I said earlier, it’ll be a sight on satellite to see this string out low wrap itself up into a sprawling but coherent low.

ICON fwiw, is a good hit.

Yikes. Hopefully you make a full and speedy recovery.

What happened?

It’s not missing south lol

I think we want that though. It'd be a red flag if the high res weren't picking up on a strong system. I'm really interested in seeing the rain signal. The overnight models painted a nasty zone of sig rain. GFS wanted to paint SW CT as ground zero for flood potential again.

Anyway, back to wx. Our area of interest is still strung out. It's going to take a while to consolidate but when it does this loop is going to be very interesting to look at.