WxWatcher007

Beautiful location

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1220 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 332 PM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025 Areas affected...northern NJ into southern NY/Long Island and CT Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 301931Z - 310125Z Summary...Heavy rain across the Tri-State Area through this evening may result in localized flooding/flash flooding. Localized rainfall totals over 3 inches will be possible. Rainfall near 1 inch in 15-30 minutes can be expected. Discussion...19Z radar imagery showed a low-topped squall-line, oriented from south to north, edging east from 40 miles east of ACY through NYC. This line was being aided by strong low level convergence with 45-50 kt from the SSE/SE in the 925-850 mb layer, located north of the triple point of an occluded cyclone over the northern Mid-Atlantic region. The line of showers has been accompanied by 0.50 to 1.00 inches of rain in 15 minutes across northern NJ into the Five Boroughs. Moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast into southern New England was already anomalous as sampled by area 12Z RAOBs, with PWAT values of 1.2 to 1.5 inches. However, OSPO's ALPW has since shown an increase stemming from Melissa's circulation, especially near and below 700 mb, being drawn northward into NJ and southern NY. The continued addition of this remnant tropical moisture should allow for an increase in rainfall efficiency and locally higher rainfall rate potential into the early evening hours. While the line of showers has been progressive, there is some concern for very brief slowing/stalling given the LEWP-like appearance off the NJ coast, which could result in a quick 1-2 inches as this line continues to advance east through the remainder of the afternoon. As a triple point low becomes better organized south of Long Island this evening, low level flow will maintain a southeasterly orientation, with possible backing. Therefore, some orographic component to lift will be added into the equation for the higher terrain north and west of I-95, combining with increasing right-entrance jet ascent associated with a forecast 130 kt jet streak on the east side of the parent upper low to the west. Farther south and west, instability is expected to remain weak (briefly peaking in the 500-1000 J/kg range) but perhaps sufficient to support a few additional heavy showers from eastern PA and southern NJ, rotating northward into the Tri-State region. Additional rainfall may result in isolated areas of rapid inundation of water. Given below average rainfall over the past few weeks and ongoing drought conditions across portions of the region, any flooding that occurs is likely to remain constrained to urban or other areas with poor drainage. Otto ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...OKX...PHI...

NYC getting smoked right now

27 is nuts. WPAC is just a whole different universe in high end TCs.

1560

Not to clog the thread, but what should I look for on the models when it comes to upslope and snow levels? Is it just 925s and wind direction?

Normal hi/lo at BDL on November 3 is 57/37.

WXW2 may actually get on the board with this storm @powderfreak. Maybe a half inch or so.

Yes, yes it is. Doesn’t change anything for me, though I wouldn’t fly around the world for it.

Hopefully as much time as I can. Things quiet down for me in the winter so I'm hoping we can get settled quickly--though EH and CT will remain my full time location during the year overall as I have my job here. I look at the BTV site every week. I'm pretty sure eventually I'll get annoyed at the lack of big synoptic events, but I was surprised by the frequency of below zero days up there. I just hope I don't bring a +10 DJF and historic snow futility. I'm legit nervous about something stupid like that. Even so, with this being the first year I haven't had a tropical chase, unless it's a holiday I'm hoping to be all in on some kind of epic winter chase.

I can't speak for any other chaser, but I've followed wx all my life and the first time I went on a chase (for snow) I knew it was going to be a core piece of my life for as long as I could make it so. Yes, there is something a little crazy about traveling thousands of miles to chase wx and be in disaster zones, but it goes well beyond just experiencing the overwhelming power of nature, though I suspect none of us would do it if that wasn't first. I'm never more focused in my life than when I'm on a chase, especially tropical. Days before a storm even arrives I'm forecasting, figuring logistics, and preparing. It's all consuming and there's a peace to be found in that. There have been very few storms where I wasn't spontaneously needed either, especially as I became good at chasing. Whether it's comforting an elderly couple in Helene, telling a hotel manager when to lock things down in Laura, helping staff check on hotel occupants in Beryl as the windows were blowing in, spending hours digging a man out of a snow bank in an epic LES event, or carrying kids from a car stuck in water in Florence, knowing what to do and how to respond to the people impacted is meaningful too. Sometimes you're the only one who can (safely). Respect the storm, respect the people, and don't make yourself the story. Ever.

We had a few epic modeling collapses. The Joker January thread tells the story in gruesome detail. I hopped off the runaway train of futility early. I'm still in East Hartford full time, but my wife recently got a job in Saranac Lake. Will be splitting time PIT 1 and PIT 2 style (WXW1=East Hartford/WXW2=Saranac Lake), but hoping to spend most of my winter up there. Unless of course the atmosphere wants to throw a CT jackpot KU or two my way out of jealousy.

Yes. I'm sitting this winter out. Seriously. I'm zipping it and falling back to obs, pictures, and Arctic blast talk. While I appreciate pattern discussion no matter the season, we've had a lot of epic winter patterns that have resulted in middling to objectively awful results this decade. I canceled last winter the first week in January after that epic modeling collapse, and even with 3.8" to date I still thought 27-31" was doable in deference to the pattern. I finished with 19.8". I just can't do it anymore. Winter has fallen to my least favorite season, and it has some work to do to get out of the dog house. Hopefully, my location change this winter will help.

Let’s just make sure it’s not a two week cold period with no production. I can’t get on board with pattern talk anymore. I need results.

Fitting for this all time hurricane

We stopped talking about Melissa here but sure enough it looks like a hit is on the table for Atlantic Canada. St. John’s may get a good storm.

That’s incredible. It’ll take a long time to recover.

Must have been some poor group of vessels in the path of it?

Some of the worst on record. I’m tired of it.

From Michael Lowry

Maybe that system that tries to dive down into the Gulf tries, but I still stand by my August forecast that the season halts in October. You have to get something tangible to those climo favored regions to generate a TC and I don’t think that’s likely.

Disastah

2:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 Location: 19.7°N 76.4°W Moving: NE at 10 mph Min pressure: 952 mb Max sustained: 125 mph

With recon done I doubt there are any new updates to intensity outside of whatever they decide at 2am.