WxWatcher007

I was skeptical too, but at least for tropical, some of the AI guidance has proven to be extremely useful. Still a long way to go obviously and winter is vastly different. Edit: @40/70 Benchmark nails it. There's a lot out here already. I basically use most models as ensembles at this point.

Congrats Dendrite?

We don't rejoice until seeing the landscape turn wintry white after the awful decade this has been, but I 1000% prefer tracking a tangible storm and imminent BN temp pattern over talking about long range potential. Remember it was just a few days ago some looked at the models and saw a warm first week of Dec. Can't take anything for granted. We gotta produce when the windows for action open.

Heavy snow and freezing fog at KSLK. First time seeing the SN+ ob at that station.

Very much so. Really want to see how it can handle synoptic events and long range patterns. Good early season test with next week.

It was solid for tropical season but there were big misses too. Obviously a different season we’re tracking now so we’ll see.

The most important 14 days of the decade coming up for this subforum?

Happy Thanksgiving!

Happy Thanksgiving!

Totally agree. I’m proceeding with extreme caution this winter but the pattern/setup looks very good at the moment for the first 1/3 of December at least.

High of 58.1 here in EH. I didn't hate it.

Messenger shuffle ftw I want everyone to cash in this winter. Seriously. It’s been too long.

The only way to do that is with ample amounts of snow. I pledge not to post Euro runs cutting 980mb lows through Albany and burying me and PF

What I love is how the model hopium triggers amnesia—masking the fact that we’ve been on the cusp of epic pattern many times before in this decade. Better this than seeing Canada torched and a stationary trough to Baja. No doubt about that.

Forecast for WXW2 keeps beefing up. Now 5” expected with the Thanksgiving storm. Need that a month from now. We’re doing Thanksgiving in CT and Christmas in SLK.

54.2° here at WXW1. 38.8° at WXW2, warmest morning of the month. We torch before winter sweeps in. Thankfully short lived.

I call it King Grinch for a reason. That was as bad as you can get. Just getting back to CT for the holiday. Good trends today on the models. Hopefully we can all cash in and roll into a good December overall. I think we all want three things: 1) A good start to met winter with at least an advisory event or two 2) No Grinch preceding Christmas 3) Hope for a solid pattern at short range on the models New Year’s Eve We’ll see how many of those we get.

Unfortunately I don’t think I can do any of them.

That is by far the luckiest storm I can remember imby. Pure luck in the middle of a terrible season.

I’ll still be there most of the time. We have a house I don’t want to sell anytime soon. EH is still home for me, and I have work (obviously fairly flexible) and my elderly mom. Wife and I will just figure out next steps. Six months ago none of this was even imaginable. My life has been a roller coaster since my dad passed in 2021. Lots of twists and turns. I think this is a good one though. fair I mean I’m talking about this as it’s -SN under partly sunny skies and 34°. I became PF in less than an hour. Only us weenies would think about this stuff lol. Front door and yard faces due east. When we originally looked at the place my wife was wondering why I spent so much time looking at the trees. “Need to know if a westerly wind will put a tree in the bedroom”

Big day. We have the keys now…just have to move stuff across the village (not that far, SLK is tiny) in the coming weeks. The VP2 should be here next week and then I will have official WXW2 obs. Siting will be blah since basically anywhere I put it will have rain shadowing/wind issues. Front yard faces east and south so it gets torched. Backyard is quite nice and the opposite side is north so good spot to get a snow stake up. First snow depth measurement is between 0-6”. My likely measuring spot is at 4.5”.

We overperformed. The overnight periods have been absolute money.

Still hovering just above freezing here.

My area has so many snow holes in the historical record but now I know whenever I’m feeling down at WXW1 I can look at this…