WxWatcher007

2026 in a nutshell? Yeah. I'm not flying down.

Dry air definitely still looks to be an issue, and that was a clear limiting factor even when this was a lemon. I agree that there's no one size fits all for TCs, which is why the Twitter conversation sometimes gets frustrating because cold top convection does not automatically equal RI. You can see the dry air on the northern flank clearly, and it seems clear that it's having an impact, though I think the expanding outflow on the northern side of Edouard does limit it some. I've always been of the opinion that you need organization before substantial intensification so that's what I look for. Today we've seen substantial progress in that department. We went from a weak and elongated low this morning To a much tighter wind field, with a meaningful pressure drop this evening on the first recon pass of the evening. I still think an overnight/morning convective burst aided by diurnal maximum given the developing inner core should allow for modest intensification, with an added boost from frictional convergence. Like someone else said earlier, I think this is one of those short fuse homebrew cases where we do say if this had more time it could have intensified more substantially. Regardless, it will be interesting to watch given the radar coverage we will have from now through landfall. Tonight I'll be watching to see 1) if the reduction in central convection leads to a collapse in the nascent inner core and if not 2) how soon we see the overnight convective burst I'm expecting. 18z HAFS has that happening around 5am.

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 5 (2) Hurricanes: 3 (0) Major Hurricanes: 1 (0) Dolly, Edouard

True, but I think what matters here is that there’s still shallow convection firing around the center. The circulation has continued to become better defined with spiral banding now. Radar definitely helps. A well-timed DMAX burst in the morning with some frictional convergence could help this spin up nicely. Can see that a bit now that HAFS has recon data assimilated now.

Memorial Day?

I have a bunch of work stuff scheduled, but if this is the real deal I might just try a quick turnaround flight. Radar definitely looks increasingly robust and seeing this kind of organization at this time of the day is intriguing.

Ugh. Short fuse TC development right along the coast. So hard to chase…

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026 The Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data through early this afternoon showed the low-level circulation of this system gradually becoming better defined, and it was sufficient to designate it as Tropical Depression Five for the 18 UTC intermediate advisory. This is consistent with the improved radar and satellite presentation of the system, with a prominent curved band now evident to the south of the center. The aircraft measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 38 kt earlier today, and TAFB provided a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak estimate at 18 UTC. These data support a 30-kt intensity for this advisory. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate the system tonight. The center of the depression lies to the north and east of prior estimates based on the aircraft data and recent surface observations. A low-level ridge over the southeastern United States is steering the system toward the west-northwest (300/5 kt), and this general motion should continue through the next couple of days. The system is expected to move onshore along the northwestern Gulf Coast within the warning area on Tuesday, with the updated 24-h forecast point just offshore. There were no significant changes to the track guidance this cycle, and the updated NHC forecast was adjusted slightly north of the previous prediction mainly due to the repositioning of the center. The tropical cyclone is fairly compact and has a small radius of maximum wind. Although it only has about a day over the very warm Gulf waters, strengthening is expected within a generally low shear environment. Since the small size of the system makes it more susceptible to quicker intensity changes, the NHC intensity forecast has been raised and now lies above almost all of the intensity guidance, including HCCA and IVCN. The legacy hurricane regional models (HWRF/HMON) show even more strengthening than is forecast here. While this does not appear to be the most likely scenario, interests in the warning area are reminded to closely monitor the latest forecast updates. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts on Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Port Bolivar, Texas, to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line, Louisiana. 2. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana Tuesday and Wednesday as the system tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely across this region, especially in urban areas. River flooding may also be possible. 3. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from High Island, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana. Peak values of up to 4 feet above ground level are possible within the watch area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 28.2N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 28.8N 92.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 29.6N 93.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 30.6N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 02/1800Z 31.6N 96.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Our last major

Not far from getting a name.

Radar looks pretty intriguing. If it can wrap the deeper convection fully it has a chance to be more than a minimal TS.

The radar presentation has improved quite a bit in the last few hours. We’ll see if it can develop an inner core quickly. If so, the ceiling rises substantially. 18z hurricane guidance now that there’s recon data on a defined center should be useful.

It was making real strides a few seasons back and then became absolutely worthless last year. Damn shame.

It’ll probably organize enough to get a name, but it’s still not there structurally. Hard to RI when you have no inner core. This would be 2/5 of my NS forecast. The next three need to be hurricanes.

PTC 5 initial advisory coming at 11am.

That's relief compared to what I've been paying. Gas was $4.89 at peak in SLK this summer and I paid $4.59 there yesterday. Brutal, brutal stuff.

Yep. We see this plenty of times--satellite looks good but when recon gets in there it's still a bit of a mess. This one is on its way to being a TC, but probably not quite there/borderline. Interested in what they find on the eastern flank & in that possible center.

We've gotten names for less I kid, I kid...

Must've been absolutely frigid up at SLK.

It might be in a SUPER Nino

Recon heading into the invest now. It's a short flight so we're going to know soon if this is a TC. Will wait for more data before doing much analysis but no surprise that there's a westerly wind in there. First light over our invest.

Recon is heading into the Invest now. Given its appearance, this should be a TC before it reaches the coast.

Everything on satellite would suggest this is a TC this morning, and a ship observation of a westerly wind near the center would suggest this is a closed low. Recon will confirm I guess. Given its size and more symmetrical convective appearance this morning, I don’t think dry air has been too impactful yet. It may have a higher ceiling as @Windspeed suggests, but we’ll see what recon finds.

Yeah, that’s all true. It makes sense to wait until there’s either another overnight cycle of observations or for recon to confirm. The PTC designation was designed for these scenarios and raising the proverbial alarm tomorrow isn’t a bad call if the ceiling continues to be limited.

Pouring here (back in CT)