WxWatcher007

Interesting given the ensembles look a little more active in the Gulf today.

Yeah not sure there’s going to be enough time for TC genesis, but nothing set in stone yet.

Death band of FU+

Just wake up, take a deep breath, and admire near zero visibility reaching your kitchen?

Have you seen the video? It’s wild.

2-2.75” hail reported in northern NY.

Destructive tag on that supercell now.

Ha that little cell is producing 2” hail and gusts to 70 per the warning.

Solid little cell working its way into northern NY. We’ll see if it holds given the crapvection ahead of it.

I don’t think they have the votes in the Senate. The House is just being dumb because they can’t pass anything important. This may be something the Senate never even takes up if for no other reason than lack of time on the legislative calendar. Enjoy

Classic Congress focusing on the wrong things

Due to more particles suspended aloft?

It’s far from chase country but I can’t believe I’m not up there today.

GDM has nothing! Pretty sensitive setup it seems.

Yeah you can bank on that no matter what I think. Unless you had something truly unprecedented, like a C5 because SSTs and OHC are just astoundingly outside the historical record off like NJ, or the scenario that I posed where the steering pattern entirely collapses over the region, it'd just be climo. New England gets high end wx too, it's just less frequent.

Still pretty active on Euro AI Ens. Waiting to see GDM.

Still pretty active

The most likely however, is a scenario where something pops off the SE coast or in the Bahamas and it simply intensifies upon final approach or is injected with energy by an approaching trough. Isaias was a good example of this. It was middling off the coast of FL but intensified as it hit NC, and although it was weakening up the coast the trough injection made a difference in NE impacts before the thing could fall apart substantially. That's what I'd imagine is possible in a hostile year like this. Getting a CV monster to cross the Atlantic or a tempest to explode in the Caribbean is going to be extremely difficult. You'd need a seedling in the Bahamas or off the Carolina coast that simply found a favorable enough environment and enough time to ramp up.

This. "Low end" C4 is probably the best we can do, and everything would have to align to create the conditions to blunt rapid weakening and/or extratropical transition. There's so much that would factor into whether potential is maximized. But we don't need the highest end cane to have high end impacts. As I see it, a large and inertially stable C4/C5 hurricane, taking 1) the 1938 track that blasts to Montreal, 2) a hook left to bring the RFQ into NY Harbor, or 3) an eastward slide that brings the RFQ from Groton to Boston are the nightmare scenarios. The other, which we don't talk about but I think is increasingly on the table given CC, is a scenario where a tropical entity is drawn up into the region using the canonical synoptic setup to bring it here, but we see a collapse of the steering flow as it arrives and a biblical rainfall results. It has happened in the recent past in the south (Imelda, Florence as examples) but I think Henri, for all its failure to deliver wind, was proof of concept in New England.

I hadn’t seen the Icon, but Euro AI has been pretty keen on this one. GFS seems to be the odd model out right now.

And for the uninitiated

I like seeing the GDM (Google Deep Mind) ensembles increasingly bullish on some type of development. I'm intrigued. 3/10 for now.

I have no doubt that if we saw a repeat of 1938 in terms of track and intensity, people would take it seriously. Keep in mind, to get a major here you probably need it to be a high end 3 or more likely, Cat 4 off the NC coast (as 1938 was) and that alone would have people in a panic. It'd be the most hyped storm in history, with good reason. A bona fide major would be catastrophic depending on the track, even absent C3 sustained winds inland (which would be unlikely unless this is rocketing). Now that said, on this board? I already know how the run up would be. The first time the Euro kicks it at 144 with an over-zealous trough "she gone" would be the most popular phrase on the board. Followed by days and days of downplaying. Then complaining over the final track, which will shift 50 miles in the last 12 hours. Haven't seen a C5 yet, but I've seen a couple 4s, it's incredible. In Helene, I regret not doing a U-Turn on the highway to get a photo but I saw a massive pine snapped at the base well inland. In Laura, the damage was staggering. Fiona--it wasn't officially a hurricane when it hit Nova Scotia but I was one of the first on the ground after it passed and produced that 97kt gust in Arisaig. The damage was incredible all the way back to New Brunswick. But folks should know that even lower end tropical can and will do big time damage. The October Cape Cod crusher a few years ago (eventually Wanda) did C1 damage through the region and it was big time. I'm not as bearish as I was a few weeks ago. Subtropics aren't as bad thermodynamically as they could be. But the wind shear and dry air with more frequent troughs later in the season will be an issue. The window is narrow, but probably the place where we're most likely to see activity. Doubt anything meaningful comes out of the MDR this year.

I can already tell you that people will meh a hurricane all the way until landfall. And then complain they didn’t get the eyewall.

Euro AI and its ensemble have been intriguing, and other guidance has been showing a signal for homebrew. The NHC hasn’t tagged it yet, but the Gulf/SE coast are worth watching in about a week.