WxWatcher007

Sorry—for comparison’s sake.

…But the ridge orientation is nowhere close to the GFS.

Unlike the GFS, there’s not as much of a weakness on the 12z Euro, which puts this much closer to the Bahamas in a week.

It introduces a weakness off the coast that allows for an escape route. Could be real but if it’s not the ridge is a big player. Too early to know at this point.

I’m not going to lie, I’d love to see our boring period end with a bang. September cane or October nuke.

It’ll be 1,000 miles east of Bermuda next run lol.

Phil frolicking all the way to Quebec City on that run

lol gfs

As soon as that weakness closed and that big ridge popped over the top it was trouble for somebody. Not worth much but we take the eye candy on a miserable day in the office

Not that it matters that much right now but both the GFS and Canadian look strange to me for different reasons. Setting the Canadian aside because of its track record, if anything close to that ridge on the GFS pops that’s trouble. The weakness the GFS briefly produces before the ridging takes over late next week pulls TD 7 more northward than it’d otherwise be if that weakness doesn’t materialize. Edit: but even then you see in subsequent hours that the escape OTS path quickly closes. It’s interesting, but again, far out.

Totally agree. I think this needs to be coherent enough to reorganize fairly soon after potential land interaction, but not so much that it’s decimated by the islands or, if we’re being honest, it gets too poleward to become a US threat. I am a little surprised it spun up into a depression in this environment but persistence is persistent until it’s not.

It has been a struggle this year lol

The thing that matters right now is organization and survival in a marginal to hostile environment. Zero concerns about track currently IMO.

The last 18 hours or so have been pretty impressive in a marginal environment. This has overperformed thus far. That’s a rough track for a LLC though if it played out like that. Now that we have a well defined center I’ll be watching the next few model cycles to see if that changes track reasoning. Agree with others that this one likely has a cap in intensification potential through the five day forecast period due to dry air and shear.

TD 7 coming at 11am. Nice to see an overperformer for once.

Reposting from the MA thread. Let's talk Invest 96L, which I highlighted as the Atlantic Lemon a week ago. While the guidance has waffled the last week over development odds for this one, in the last 18 hours 96L has made a sizable move toward development in advance of reaching the Lesser Antilles. This invest has been buoyed by a large moisture envelope that to date has kept dry air from significantly disrupting convective activity. While convection did collapse yesterday, this wave has not had the look of virtually every other wave crossing the tropical Atlantic this season. That said, there remains reason to be skeptical. Even in the visible image above you see issues. On the NW side you can see arc clouds shooting outward, a clear sign of dry air. To the SW, you see wind shear as the cloud tops ahead get blown away. The shear analysis from this morning shows 96L threading the needle. I don't think this one is going to fizzle out at this point, but the above does tell me that this still has the potential to sputter as it tries to find its footing organizationally. That has implications downstream as land interaction will be key to both track and intensity. The image below is busy but important. This is an overlay of 00z EPS and GEFS ensemble tracks with water vapor. Once again, despite a large moisture envelope, the ever present dry air is...well...present. It wouldn't take much IMO to hold this one back, and that's basically what the guidance shows. There's a clear consensus, at least in this model cycle, that it remains relatively weak and heads toward the northern part of the Antilles. Places like Puerto Rico should watch this closely in case this becomes the first system of the year in the tropical Atlantic to overperform a little, which it has done so far. So while it has certainly made progress that may allow it to become a player in the medium to longer range, the environment is still marginal to hostile, and it has some work to do organizationally. We need to see if this organizational trend continues. If it does, that significantly increases the odds that it develops before the Antilles. I don't think it's really worth talking long range track right now, but this early I think all options are on the table.

Let's talk Invest 96L, which I highlighted as the Atlantic Lemon a week ago. While the guidance has waffled the last week over development odds for this one, in the last 18 hours 96L has made a sizable move toward development in advance of reaching the Lesser Antilles. This invest has been buoyed by a large moisture envelope that to date has kept dry air from significantly disrupting convective activity. While convection did collapse yesterday, this wave has not had the look of virtually every other wave crossing the tropical Atlantic this season. That said, there remains reason to be skeptical. Even in the visible image above you see issues. On the NW side you can see arc clouds shooting outward, a clear sign of dry air. To the SW, you see wind shear as the cloud tops ahead get blown away. The shear analysis from this morning shows 96L threading the needle. I don't think this one is going to fizzle out at this point, but the above does tell me that this still has the potential to sputter as it tries to find its footing organizationally. That has implications downstream as land interaction will be key to both track and intensity. The image below is busy but important. This is an overlay of 00z EPS and GEFS ensemble tracks with water vapor. Once again, despite a large moisture envelope, the ever present dry air is...well...present. It wouldn't take much IMO to hold this one back, and that's basically what the guidance shows. There's a clear consensus, at least in this model cycle, that it remains relatively weak and heads toward the northern part of the Antilles. Places like Puerto Rico should watch this closely in case this becomes the first system of the year in the tropical Atlantic to overperform a little, which it has done so far. So while it has certainly made progress that may allow it to become a player in the medium to longer range, the environment is still marginal to hostile, and it has some work to do organizationally. We need to see if this organizational trend continues. If it does, that significantly increases the odds that it develops before the Antilles. I don't think it's really worth talking long range track right now, but this early I think all options are on the table.

It’s pretty close. Let’s see if it can persist through the day. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Central Tropical Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles have persisted overnight and are showing signs of organization. Although upper-level winds are not particularly conducive for additional development, only a slight increase in organization would result in the formation of a tropical depression. The system is forecast to move generally westward over the tropical Atlantic during the next day or so, and move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands Friday and Friday night. Regardless of development, the system is likely to bring gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Leeward Islands Friday through Saturday. Interests in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown

The steering pattern does look pretty ripe as long as there are no unmodeled shortwaves that erode the coming ridge.

Don’t really have much to add other than it looks pretty solid based on prior microwave imagery, a partial ASCAT pass, and current IR. Agree with Windspeed and some others that we need to see this survive long enough to reach a *potentially* favorable environment. I remain skeptical but if this can persist, and that’s been a challenge all season in the tropical Atlantic, it has a shot. I think this needs to be a coherent enough disturbance to survive potential interaction with the Greater Antilles. The size may help in that regard. Good to see deep convection and hints of curved banding.

I’m still skeptical about 96L too. Let’s see how those aggressive euro forecasts verify in three days. The guidance has been awful even at short range.

San Diego had tropical this month.

We now have Invest 96L. All you for the thread @GaWx. Also I hate to admit it, but I’m not on board yet with this one.

I still need to see it make progress the next few days. There’s a nice moisture envelope but there’s a lot of dry air ahead and potential land interaction if it can’t get poleward a little.