WxWatcher007

Agree, though we’re only now starting to hone in on the final forecast, so we have to see what that ET transition looks like and how much strength this’ll maintain. The size of the storm may make it more impactful than it’d otherwise be.

That may just keep this from a second cat 4 peak and allow for the wind field to expand even more than it already has. Going to be a very large storm as it moves northward.

Roller coaster is a great way to put it. You literally know how the ride will go before hopping on, and despite how much it makes you want to scream or puke you can't get off until you run out of track. Weenie posts! Meh posts! Fear! Excitement! Morality debate! Dopamine drips or saline solution at every turn!

Gotta imagine some troughing would get that one, but here we are on the cusp of something with Lee.

That’s going to be hard to top any year. Would probably need a further west track and more ET transition to maintain some semblance of a core? Cape would be in for a lashing though.

Like I said. Team Meh & Team Hit.

It’s going to stay bottled up because a major cane is not coming.

2mb drop in last pass. 950mb now.

It looks like in addition to in storm observations a recon mission sampled the broader steering/shear environment. That may help in understanding when the turn north happens and at what speed. Lee continues to improve on IR with an expanded wind field per recon.

Probably mesovorticies

Sometimes you can’t help but laugh at what the models produce

Latest sonde in the N eyewall has this with 108kt winds. Might be close to being back at category four intensity.

That popped into my mind too. Far more expansive system here with ET transition possibly occurring.

Looking at the last four GEFS runs, the spread has narrowed quite a bit too with the bifurcation now.

Looks like there are still those two faster/east and slower/west camps.

Good luck, teams.

Not doing another long post right now but looking at the general trend in the steering pattern across guidance I update my odds to the following: —50% LF risk Atlantic Canada with the bulk of that risk in Nova Scotia. It’s becoming increasingly likely that the second trough pulls this on an extended northward heading. —30% New England (10% SNE/20% ENE) which is slightly more aggressive than the ensembles. —20% OTS because respect still needs to be given to eastward shifts or a sharper turn caused by the first trough. Either way, it’s looking increasingly likely a close call occurs even in this scenario for Atlantic Canada. If the general trend west/more impactful continues through the 12z suite tomorrow, then I believe this becomes something more legitimate.

It just looks “well-timed” to me verbatim on the run. I don’t see how that’s outside the realm of non-long shot possibility. Kinda funny to see the usual tropical fault line establishing itself. For Team Meh, this run isn’t a one off. There’s a three day general trend toward a closer approach across guidance and ensembles. Ensembles still lead by far, which are further east, but the ops become more interesting the closer in time we get. For Team Hit cheering me on now…this is still ~6/7 days out—an eternity in tropical tracking. A trend today can easily shift back tomorrow. And the ensembles still lead. Updating my odds, I think it’s a 50% LF risk for Atlantic Canada/30% New England (10% SNE/20% ENE)/20% OTS.

Euro has bounced around hundreds of miles between 00z yesterday, 12z yesterday, 00z this morning, and 12z this afternoon. I’d guess the EPS ticks a little west, but the op runs are zero confidence right now.

The New England delegation has a strong weenie presence, but remember, the Euro nailed Sandy.

Fixed. It’s always always bad

Yeah that was the best I could do. Following the mean line though you can see it go from Cape Breton Island to the SW tip of NS, or about 300 miles. Could easily tick back east, but that hasn’t been the trend lately.

Let’s see if this 3 day gif works…12z GEFS the last three days.

Sure, but the three day trend generally has been quite a bit west. Agree with @CoastalWx—need to see the Euro/EPS not all over the place before feeling like this is more a NE threat than Nova Scotia.