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WxWatcher007

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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
    I think it’s too early to say anything about the long range steering pattern, other than OTS is almost always the betting favorite for CVs. I think the weakness in the subtropical ridge makes it more likely we see a recurve, but the persistent troughing in the eastern US is something to watch, particularly since we’ve seen a lot of cutoff lows that could serve as a capture mechanism. Either way, this is highly anomalous, even though we had Elsa recently.
  2. WxWatcher007
    This is about as good as it gets for early season MDR activity. It’s an intriguing environmental pattern over the next 5-10 days.
  3. WxWatcher007
    This is a really interesting setup. Guidance getting more bullish as the wave tries to organize a bit today.
  4. WxWatcher007
    Most robust intensity guidance yet from the Euro.
  5. WxWatcher007
    I almost think about the chases I missed as much as the ones I hit on. For every Florence there’s a Michael. For every Fiona there is an Ian. Honest to God, having a big in person event scheduled the day Ian made landfall may have been a contributing factor to me leaving my last job. Aren’t we at or near peak climo for severe around here? I’m not really feeling bullish about the back half of storm season given the crap this far.
  6. WxWatcher007
    Multiple tor warnings down there. Surprised you didn’t give it a go.
  7. WxWatcher007
    You'd think it were August with this look in the eastern MDR.
  8. WxWatcher007
    Good luck
  9. WxWatcher007
    Pretty weenie GFS and Euro runs today. It’s fantasy range but you just don’t see a long track CV this time of year like the happy hour GFS, even on guidance.
  10. WxWatcher007
    This is one hell of a tornado watch
  11. WxWatcher007
    Just a quick gif I put together. There used to be a fantastic resource that had daily TCHP/d26 daily plots going back decades. Until the gov made it password protected. This is recent OHC, the scale changes pre 2016.
  12. WxWatcher007
    A little harder to run a comparison, but they’re high end anomalous as well from what I’ve seen.
  13. WxWatcher007
    I mean, the Euro has some general vorticity sure, but it’s nowhere close on the operational or ensemble guidance to supporting a tropical cyclone IMO. That’s an island to me. I’m just not sure that there’s enough in the western Caribbean to spin something up. Could be wrong, but I just don’t see a conducive enough environment yet.
  14. WxWatcher007
    12z Euro trended more robust with the wave leaving the African coast today. Pretty strong model consensus that the MDR is ripe for a TC next week.
  15. WxWatcher007
    This looks awesome. Not tropical but it looks like the low this weekend has trended a little stronger on the Euro. Messy weekend on tap.
  16. WxWatcher007
    I’m still deeply skeptical of anything coming out of the western Caribbean. GFS and its ensembles are on an island right now—doesn’t mean it can’t score a coup but it just seems TC genesis happy there, which is a known bias.
  17. WxWatcher007
    Summer of bore continues as we spend this mid-June afternoon writing about PG rated tropical fantasies and what could have been in a winter that passed thirteen years ago. What a time to be alive.
  18. WxWatcher007
    It won’t happen but it raises an interesting question for me: what’s the earliest hurricane strike on record in NE?
  19. WxWatcher007
    Quite early. Operational guidance has gotten more aggressive with TC genesis in the MDR but the signal has been there for a while. Not sure about the environment in the western Atlantic in 7-10 days though allowing for something tangible to survive with a TUTT lurking. It’s historically warm across much of the basin. Just outrageous anomalies.
  20. WxWatcher007
    Lemon in the MDR now.
  21. WxWatcher007
    This is a horrifying, yet hilarious, thought.
  22. WxWatcher007
    Here’s a real storm Wild day down south.
  23. WxWatcher007
    Looks like my backyard
  24. WxWatcher007
    I’m intrigued. The overall environment out in the MDR looks good as we enter the last 1/3 of June.
  25. WxWatcher007
    Radar looked horrific until it didn’t.
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