WxWatcher007

Best of both worlds.

Stop being so negative

We love to see it.

Absolute nuke in NNE. Icing down into CT. at the surface temp cave from the 12z run

Tasty low level cold numbers I tossed the GFS but that’s still not crazy if we don’t get good surface cold locked in.

Snow Tuesday/early Wednesday, snow to ice to maybe rain Dec 26-27.

We toss the GFS. It’s coming…

It’s such a sorry attempt at trolling. A week ago there was north to south snow cover from Maine to Virginia and east to west snow cover from the Cape through the northern tier to Montana. Christmas will torch in the south and part of the Midwest, but it hasn’t been extended fall for many in the U.S. this December. Quite the opposite.

If there is an IVT, coastal Maine might clean up.

Yeah, it’s not a lock we keep surface cold into SNE. The warm push is trying and the low on the GFS is substantially stronger at 12z. We can’t discount that even if I lean euro at the moment. I don’t really care what the second tier models do but the ICON and Canadian were colder (Icon shows rain but the temperature profile suggests icing down into at least part of SNE).

Still have to watch for some warmth but yeah, not bad for CT.

No dice on the GFS on Boxing Day but it does have ice to snow in NNE from a pretty strong storm.

With apologies to the NNE crew (but note up near PWM) 06z 12z

Back to wx. It’s definitely tenuous for coastal areas, but you can see how a slightly more robust system is very good for much of the subforum being in striking distance of a widespread 2-4” event. I’d still lean 1-3” generally given the track and possibility we can’t amplify this to its ceiling, but still solid minor snow in advance of the holiday.

In his defense, he’s also been pretty relentless in talking about how the awful 80s may be comparable to now. He may lean on uncertainty being an avenue to optimism and I can see how that would wear some people out, but preordaining every complex or suboptimal setup as evolving into the worst case scenario or announcing that your hand is firmly on the plug and you’re ready to pull after every model cycle ain’t it either. It’s a bad snow regime. I think 95% of the subforum understands that. But that does not mean that every chance this season must also be a disaster in waiting, even if some actually are in our backyards. You’ve been around long enough to know that our climo skews toward smaller messy events far more than it does 6-12” or even 4-8” ones, especially in your region. If you want people to be as frustrated and despondent as you are, flash the canines and say it. Wolfe does it unapologetically.

Let’s hope the Euro makes Boxing Day easy…

The cutter? Slam dunk on a 6 ft rim.

I know we’re all beaten down by the last few years and not getting as much snow as we’d like during the frigid pattern, but this relaxation is exactly the time where a shortwave could produce a solid overrunning event. With the trends we’ve seen I almost think we have to produce otherwise we might be in trouble heading into January.

I feel like that’s been one of the themes of the season so far. Hard to get consensus at short range.

Yes, I think that signal is real for the 26-27th. We’ve been talking about it for a week now and it’s looking like at least a substantial part of New England is going to stay on the cold enough edge of this overall pattern that’ll flood areas to our south and west with warmth. Doesn’t mean it’ll be all frozen the rest of December, just that unlike virtually the rest of the CONUS we will have our chances to produce.

Still a huge discrepancy in sensible wx between Euro and GFS for Boxing Day, but the cold press has been gradually trending on the GFS. Euro would be impactful verbatim.

18z Euro also looked colder for Boxing Day. That might be one to watch. Rain to ice to snow? The low level cold is there verbatim.

Yep, most would take that. Would like to see more with the varsity 00z models.

Very interesting

My lord we pray it’s right. We’d get smoked here through the 26th.