WxWatcher007

Storm total of 0.09” at WXW1 Storm total of 0.53” at WXW2 I mean what can you say

Somebody is in for a rough morning.

15% chance of an area within 25 miles seeing rainfall that exceeds flash flood guidance. Kind of similar to SPC outlooks of having a certain percentage chance of seeing severe within 50mi or whatever it is. Flash flood guidance varies depending on recent rainfall (among other things, probably). Caveat is moderate risk on rainfall is not the same as a mod risk for severe. When I see a mod rain risk it’s noteworthy but not uncommon. A high risk is serious though—they almost always precede catastrophic flooding somewhere within the zone.

We approve.

I think my area does a really good job at underperforming on every type of weather other than CAD in winter. I think CT gets a general 1-3” but where it pours it might get ugly fast (most likely western/SW CT). I’m out on predicting anything interesting imby until something interesting happens.

I’m going to take the Kev & TBlizz approach. WXW1 doesn’t get more than .50” total.

Well that would be a problem.

.05”

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0877 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1247 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026 Areas affected...Southeastern New York through Western New England Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 281646Z - 282245Z SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms have developed across portions of New York into New England. Flash flooding is likely as the storms interact with the terrain. DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have formed in several clusters from central New York through portions of western New England this afternoon. These clusters have a history of producing multiple-inch-per-hour rainfall rates. Duration has also been a distinguishing factor as some portions of central New York have seen heavy rainfall for several hours. The clusters of storms have developed ahead of a strong upper level negatively tilted trough, on the leading edge of a potent low level jet advecting high PWATs to 1.5 to 1.75 inches right into eastern New York and western New England. With plentiful terrain in these areas, the combination of upslope into the south-facing slopes of the mountains, heavy rain that's likely to persist for multiple hours, and plentiful moisture allowing storms to train and backbuild will all combine to make flash flooding likely in this region through the afternoon. While the heaviest rain has been in Central New York thus far, streamers of storms will fill in most areas in eastern New York over to western New England through the afternoon as peak heating and instability advection both increase the coverage, severity, and duration of the strongest storms. Urban and small stream flooding are most likely, especially off the south-facing slopes of the mountains and in the urban areas subject to the longer durations of heavy rainfall. Locally significant flash flooding can't be ruled out. High resolution CAMs guidance suggests the most persistent rains will be in the western areas from Binghamton up I-88, and for eastern areas from western Connecticut into southern Vermont from I-91 west. There remains some uncertainty for the Catskills through the Hudson Valley, where southerly flow may limit the convective coverage since terrain won't necessarily help concentrate the heaviest rainfall, and storms to the south may limit how much instability can advect into that area. Wegman

We pop up.

Good lord

Pac looking pretty active right now with a brief C5 (Genevieve) off the Mexican coast and likely close Hawaii approach from Fausto.

Low of 48 up here. Currently 64. It feels like fall and I’m not ready.

Downside up here—short summers. It’s 58.8° here at WXW2. It feels like October.

We have landfall

I need to start whining about the weather more.

After heading a little more north than projected, recon finds a slight SW jog.

Yeah. A big day.

Fortunately moving along…slowly…

Ugly stuff in SW CT

Banner year for southern Connecticut

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF309-0702A-BERTHA.png

Yeah I'm not sure how this one isn't warned while we have a polygon extending all the way up to Ridgefield for a storm in White Plains.

That storm near Carmel, NY absolutely needs a warning.

Definitely at least 50kt based on recon so far. It's interesting how despite getting blasted by shear we're still seeing gradual organization and intensification. This would have probably been making a run toward "minimal" hurricane status if there were even slightly lower shear. Still going to be hard to get there with shear expected to increase further. Hard to intensify substantially with the vortex so misaligned though I guess Barry (which I chased years ago lol) did. You can see despite the organizational trend that it cannot wrap convection around the center. That's a pretty critical piece for significant intensification.