WxWatcher007

We just can’t escape him.

That was me citing the GFS, not Euro. Just speaks to how much models diverge on this razor's edge setup. An all or nothing type setup. I don't like it at all, but again I'd prefer being on the bleeding edge than guaranteed to be torching in Topeka.

Yeah I liked that signal a few days ago and I think we’re in good shape right now. We definitely need to bring that home. A few inches would put us closer to Dec climo with uncertainty about the post Christmas possibilities.

Hopefully we’re locking into that 23rd period. Would be a nice festive snow for many. Solid chill locks in for the Christmas period immediately after.

Some of what we’ve been talking about here. Odd pattern with potential that could cut sharply either way.

Temp dropping and flipped to snow here

I’d rather ride the line here than be in Missouri with no hope.

Messy 23-24th system on the Euro.

All of our psychological hopes of a white Christmas aside, we’re still about a week out from all of this so I hope folks don’t get too riled up yet. Since we’re riding the boundary it could really go either way if we have a shortwave nearby. I don’t hate the signal especially considering that this is more clipper than coastal.

Let's keep it that way.

Yeah it's all we got right now. Just need to keep the signal and hope we juice up as we get closer in time. At least it seems like the blowtorches for Christmas and Christmas Eve are being held at bay as we close in.

Still a little Christmas Eve snow on the GFS

It's 35.0 here at WXW2. This is the first time in December that SLK has been above freezing. Absolutely nuts.

I like that pre Christmas window more than trying to thread the needle on Christmas. I’m not as confident in that signal. I mean in all seriousness, last year we had epic patterns showing up and that was awful. We’ve had bad patterns be awful. We’ve had middling patterns be awful. It’s a rough decade. Yes, there have been great storms, but on balance nothing has worked with the PAC being uncooperative. I lean more toward you here. I don’t think it’s permanent, but perhaps one of these longer range oscillations that are really a blip on the global time scale but suck for us. 100% We have to be at climo by Dec 31.

Totally agree. No early end to winter in NE this season.

Wrapping presents by candlelight?

Expecting 80mph winds there tomorrow I think and extreme dry conditions.

OT, but interesting.

Sometimes the writing is on the wall (last year), but we’re in a different position this year. We have to get lucky, but we’re at least in the game for something next week. Like Steve said, we’re wired to want a white Christmas. We could be in the Midwest with absolutely no hope.

I would think so since this is something that gradually built up rather than what happened in @tamarack's story. It directly hangs over another smaller section of the building.

Good thing that’s been our bread and butter for years now. I’d say it’s anything that rains or wipes the pack within 5-7 days of Christmas…but This 100%. If it rains but then we snow, the Grinch is either defeated or if it’s in the same storm (rain to snow) then it grew a heart.

I know, but the result of that catastrophe is tattooed inside my eyelids.

After King Grinch in 2020 I’m always gonna be wary of a big cutter wiping pack to bare ground, but this looks like it’s been trending toward quite a blast of cold at the end without high end warmth here. Maybe some backend snow.