WxWatcher007

Regardless of status, the models really do have persistently strong onshore flow for days over the region. As long as this doesn't trend 500nm east or turn into a pumpkin, someone along the coast may have some trouble.

Thought about a thread too but will keep discussion here. I think a mod could always move these posts to a thread for posterity if Fay pulls off something crazy. It's a very narrow window but as y'all stated it's in one of where it can take off. That'd obviously be fantastic for my peak season forecast. Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 300 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026 Deep convection continues to build near the center of Fay over the last several hours. The current objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are in the range of 39-52 kt, and the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix was a T3.0/45 kt. In addition, there was an ASCAT pass that showed a peak wind vector of 43 kt. Given the uncertainties due to undersampling, the initial intensity for the storm has been raised to 50 kt. The cyclone continues to remain very compact with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend out to about 40 n mi. Both a relatively moist environment and positive interactions with an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should allow Fay to further intensify for the next 12 to 24 hours. After the trough lifts on Monday, the increase in wind shear and dry air should lead to a gradual weakening of the cyclone. The current NHC forecast calls for Fay to become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday and then dissipate by the end of the week. The official intensity forecast is a little higher than the model guidance in the short term to account for the storm's structure being more improved and the expected baroclinic support from the trough. This small system could approach hurricane strength later today or tonight. Fay is slowly moving off to the northeast, with the initial motion estimated around 010/5 kt. This general motion should continue for the rest of the day. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north of the storm by Monday, which will cause Fay to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate in that direction over the course of the forecast period. The current NHC track forecast is similiar to the previous track forecast with a few minor adjustments and remains in good agreement with HCCA and GDMI. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 34.1N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 34.3N 32.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 33.9N 32.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 32.9N 32.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 31.7N 34.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 30.6N 35.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z 29.8N 37.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z 28.8N 41.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch

We now have Fay, which breaks our tropical drought, albeit in a very weird part of the basin. Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 5 (3) Hurricanes: 3 (0) Major Hurricanes: 1 (0) Dolly, Edouard, Fay Fay is actually doing more than holding its own after struggling yesterday, and the NHC has taken note, predicting it gets to 50kt (60mph). This is a good looking structure, and this one could be an overperformer. Obviously I have a rooting interest. But I want to take a few minutes to talk about some possible east coast action in the coming days. There's been a signal for a few days now for a coastal storm development pattern over then next two weeks. A signal has emerged for an area of low pressure to form off the east coast around midweek. Across guidance you see a similar theme--our low starts out a sprawling mess, but eventually consolidates into a pretty decent coastal storm. This is the 06z Euro And the surface result Now, it's important to note, I'm not talking about anything purely tropical here. This is more baroclinic than anything. But given the location of development, there may be some tropical influence making this a subtropical or hybrid low, and these can be very impactful storms. The GFS and AI guidance so far today have been more bullish on possible subtropical development. Regardless, this is the kind of low that could cause some legitimate issues, first with coastal flooding. Everything suggests that if something forms close enough to the coast it's going to meander and bring persistent onshore flow. That could lead to significant coastal flooding. Second, rainfall. Depending on where this tracks, areas could see significant rainfall. Finally, this looks to be a windy event, especially at the coast, due to the possible intensity of the storm and a pressure gradient. 06z GFS 06z Euro As I mentioned, the AI guidance has been even more bullish, at least for now, in developing a potent coastal. But they've favored areas northeast. Still, the onshore flow could cause issues up and down the coast. Bottom line is we do have something to track, for now at least. Intensity and track are still TBD, but there's a growing signal for some type of significant coastal storm in the coming days.

I've liked the signal for a while now. Just wish it tapped a little more into tropical influence. The runs today seem to be a little more potent with perhaps some subtropical/hybrid potential, but we're obviously still a ways out. AI ensembles look more bullish but you can see a little signal there across guidance. For the weenies among us, to be clear, I'm not saying we're going to get crushed by tropical lol. Just that the general pattern seems open for one of these coastals bearing hybrid characteristics. As @vortex95 notes, that's a bit unusual for this time of year along the east coast with "hybrid" season usually being in October, but given the overarching hostility in the Atlantic basin this year it's not surprising that the east coast right now could only support some kind of sprawling mess.

Low of 54 at WXW1 Low of 37 at WXW2–coldest of the season so far. Low of 28° at SLK.

It’s the perfect football Sunday.

Looked this morning and yeah…2026 Atlantic for ya.

Well this one is dead and buried

A good signal for coastal systems the next two weeks.

Yeah it doesn’t look like a disaster. I’m skeptical of these snow anomaly maps to begin with. I just thought it was funny SLK cleans up again. We want as many dice rolls as we can get. Keep it active and we can do ok.

Sorry, guys.

Worth watching three areas into next week imo Invest 98L in the central Atlantic, the Gulf as a CAG tries to form, and off the east coast. There’s been a signal for some kind of coastal storm that could be hybrid depending on location.

Worth noting that despite the lower odds, Invest 98L has seen an uptick in support from ensemble guidance. I've always thought this one had a chance in this region, and tonight we're seeing a flare up of convection near the center. We'll see if that continues. Currently it is meandering into a region of significantly lower shear and warmer SSTs. Just enough of a window for something to pop...

Floyd wasn’t a huge deal imby, but it’s my earliest tropical impact memory. I remember the wind blowing hard when we were outside during recess and power going out at school—the first and only time that happened to me. I remember being glued to TWC as it came up the coast and overhead. The moon was out as the decaying center passed. Those were good days.

The GFS is useless, but yeah, that’s basics my peak season forecast. I’m out on a limb with 3 H 1 MH but I think the windows will open. First flakes at SLK? We kicked things off on 10/31 last year and were off to the races not too long after.

Fairly active in the Atlantic.

As predictable as the sun rising in the east.

Remember this one?

There are going to be some ugly cutters. We had virtually none last year which is unheard of lol.

It didn’t go that way last winter. Y’all cleaned up relative to normal. If they’re raining we’re raining too. Better hope the mix line stays in Long Island Sound.

We have a lemon. Good signal on guidance for some development. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a trough of low pressure over the central Subtropical Atlantic. While the environmental conditions are not currently favorable for development due to strong upper-level winds, the system is expected to move into a more favorable environment for some gradual development by the middle to later portion of this week. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the central part of the Subtropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Katz/Brown

Pretty good chance this is where our next name comes from imo. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Central Subtropical Atlantic: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a trough of low pressure over the central Subtropical Atlantic. While the environmental conditions are not currently favorable for development due to strong upper-level winds, the system is expected to move into a more favorable environment for some gradual development by the middle to later portion of this week. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the central part of the Subtropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Katz/Brown

It’s a southern CT year.

That is an ugly, ugly year here and up at WXW2 it’s catastrophically bad. SE must’ve hit on a scraper that melted down the forum.

While I'm skeptical of anything off the SE coast in the near future, the GDM has a relatively strong signal for something to pop in the subtropics. It does look like parts of the basin will become slightly more conducive in the coming weeks, as more favorable rising motion moves into the basin and shear potentially falls in a narrow region between the Gulf and subtropics.