WxWatcher007

That’s just the first wave. There were legit winds back in Iowa but the afternoon stuff should pop in a few hours.

G64 at Galveston Island!

On the board! Flash flooding is still the biggest risk in the southeast from Arthur.

Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026 The low pressure area near the Middle Texas coast has produced sustained convection well to the east of its center this morning. A 1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak classification indicated enough convective organization to designate the system as a sheared tropical cyclone. Within the past hour or two, buoy observations and a ship report have indicated tropical-storm-force winds occurring within this convection. Additionally, Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigating the storm found peak 850-mb flight-level winds up to 52 kt, which also suggest this system has reached tropical storm intensity. Based on these findings, the system is designated as Tropical Storm Arthur with an intensity of 35 kt. Arthur is starting to accelerate northeastward (045/8 kt) within strengthening southwesterly flow associated with a low- to mid-level trough. There are no significant changes to the track forecast reasoning, with a faster northeastward motion expected today that will move the center of the system along or over the Texas coast today and then farther inland over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana by tonight. With no major changes to the track guidance this cycle, the updated NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one. Given the unrelenting westerly shear and Arthur's close proximity to land, it seems unlikely that much additional strengthening will occur. The tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the eastern semicircle and mainly occurring over the offshore waters. Arthur will likely maintain its intensity while it remains over water, and then weaken by tonight once it moves inland. Global model fields indicate it will open into a trough soon thereafter, and although a 24-h forecast point is included mainly for continuity purposes, Arthur should dissipate before that time. There is still a signal in the global models for low pressure development over the western Atlantic late this week or this weekend as remnant vorticity from Arthur emerge off the Southeast U.S. coast. The exact nature of this low remains unclear, so we will continue to monitor model trends to evaluate the potential for tropical cyclone formation. Heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding remain the primary hazard with this system. Based on recent observations, the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended westward along the Upper Texas coast to High Island. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potentially life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding are likely through Friday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle, with possible flooding near the Upper Texas coast. Ongoing heavy rainfall could prolong the flood threat into the weekend. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Upper Texas and Louisiana coasts today from High Island to Morgan City where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 28.6N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 30.0N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 31.9N 91.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

I think so. From what I’ve seen AI has done very well with broader steering and genesis window forecasting at medium and longer range. Less so with intensity but Melissa was a win last season.

There is a very weak wind shift right off the Texas coast per recon. Unclear if that’s enough for an upgrade but it might be.

Will just say that AI has been really promising with regard to tropical forecasting. Exceptional actually, imo.

What happened to the man I used to know? They’ll have a solid day later.

Low level recon is in there now and finding TS winds. But we’ll see if there’s any real organization.

Yeah odds don't seem great after that recon flight.

Saw a gust to 94 reported a little earlier to your west. How frequently do you guys get gusts 74+ out there?

Doubt it but today should be nice regardless out there. Destructive tag on that latest severe thunderstorm warning out in Iowa. As for here, expectations kept in check for tomorrow. Not expecting much down this way. Whatever ejects out of the Midwest this weekend looks modestly intriguing.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 The center of the system is beginning to emerge into the northwestern Gulf. Surface observations do not show very strong winds over the area at this time, and the current intensity is held at 25 kt. This is consistent with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. There is significant westerly vertical wind shear over the disturbance, with most of the deep convection displaced well away from the center of the low. Given that there has been no noticeable increase in the deep convective organization of the disturbance, it is being maintained as a potential tropical cyclone for this advisory. Based on the center fixes, the initial motion estimate, 050/5 kt, is similar to that from the previous advisory. There has been little change in the track model guidance. The system is expected to accelerate northeastward in the flow on the southern and southwestern side of a broad mid-level trough over the eastern United States. The official forecast track shows the disturbance or storm moving just offshore of, and parallel to, the Texas coast during the next day or so. Then the system is likely to go back onshore late Wednesday or Wednesday night. No significant change has been made to the track forecast for this advisory, and the official forecast is fairly close to the corrected consensus solution. The center should move far enough offshore on Wednesday for some intensification to occur due to a combination of warm Gulf waters and upper-level divergence. However the SHIPS guidance diagnoses fairly strong shear over the area during the next 24-36 hours which should limit strengthening up to landfall. The NHC forecast continues to indicate the system becoming a tropical storm tomorrow, which is also shown in the IVCN intensity model consensus. Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards with this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely through Thursday across Louisiana and southern Mississippi, and is possible near the Upper Texas coast. Flash flooding is also possible across Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through the end of the week. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the weekend. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Louisiana coast on Wednesday from Sabine Pass to Morgan City where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 27.6N 97.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/1200Z 28.5N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 18/0000Z 30.2N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z 32.1N 90.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Adams

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026 The center of the system is beginning to emerge into the northwestern Gulf. Surface observations do not show very strong winds over the area at this time, and the current intensity is held at 25 kt. This is consistent with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. There is significant westerly vertical wind shear over the disturbance, with most of the deep convection displaced well away from the center of the low. Given that there has been no noticeable increase in the deep convective organization of the disturbance, it is being maintained as a potential tropical cyclone for this advisory. Based on the center fixes, the initial motion estimate, 050/5 kt, is similar to that from the previous advisory. There has been little change in the track model guidance. The system is expected to accelerate northeastward in the flow on the southern and southwestern side of a broad mid-level trough over the eastern United States. The official forecast track shows the disturbance or storm moving just offshore of, and parallel to, the Texas coast during the next day or so. Then the system is likely to go back onshore late Wednesday or Wednesday night. No significant change has been made to the track forecast for this advisory, and the official forecast is fairly close to the corrected consensus solution. The center should move far enough offshore on Wednesday for some intensification to occur due to a combination of warm Gulf waters and upper-level divergence. However the SHIPS guidance diagnoses fairly strong shear over the area during the next 24-36 hours which should limit strengthening up to landfall. The NHC forecast continues to indicate the system becoming a tropical storm tomorrow, which is also shown in the IVCN intensity model consensus. Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding will be the primary hazards with this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding is likely through Thursday across Louisiana and southern Mississippi, and is possible near the Upper Texas coast. Flash flooding is also possible across Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through the end of the week. Prolonged rainfall may extend the flood threat into the weekend. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Louisiana coast on Wednesday from Sabine Pass to Morgan City where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along portions of the Upper Texas and Louisiana coastlines. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 27.6N 97.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/1200Z 28.5N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 18/0000Z 30.2N 93.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/1200Z 32.1N 90.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Adams

Really want to see if the risk lifts northeast in the next day out there. Impacts here TBD.

Looks like a pretty high tornado risk but I’m most interested in wind/derecho potential. Wish we could run something all the way east.

OT but Wednesday is looking nasty out in IL/IN @weatherwiz

We've been talking about a window for tropical development for weeks, and now we have our first invest of the season. Regardless of development, heavy rain will continue across much of the south. Separating out a thread so we can continue the discussion here. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Northwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not expected during the next day or so while the trough remains inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake

Flash flooding in the south as odds increase… Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Northwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not expected during the next day or so while the trough remains inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake

Flash flooding along the Gulf coast as odds increase… Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Northwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not expected during the next day or so while the trough remains inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake

I hadn’t thought of the severe implications, but that’s very interesting. Development odds have increased to 30% with the NHC.

From motherships to barely agitated cumulus?

And until last winter, they were challenging some of us for seasonal snow

Numerous tornado warnings back in PA lol.