WxWatcher007

1041 is very impressive.

I agree. That's why I think it's important to let the science do the speaking. I'm no met obviously, but I still think it's possible to communicate meteorology in a way that doesn't add all the extra nonsense that pushes people from being effectively informed in the first place. But I think the lack of any mention by the NHC is a pretty significant tell at this stage. Maybe we get some late acknowledgement from them as the system is developing, but I'm not counting on it. Back to the system...even though it's shallow, if anything the GFS and Euro are more aligned on this being warm core than they were a few days ago. We don't get these often, and I'd argue that it's not insignificant if we see this really consolidate as it's crossing the Gulf Stream and organizing on Friday. If this takes longer to pull together it's weaker and more strung out and more mundane...but we don't see this signal often.

Polo is back in a big way. Not often we see a hurricane lose C5 status and come back like this.

I've been a longtime defender of NHC decisions on most of their designations, but in recent years (perhaps since Sandy?) I think they've been a little slower or hesitant when it comes to designating anything north of the Carolinas when it's not a slam dunk case. I provided a couple of examples a day or two ago. I can't say for sure, and I definitely do not make this statement to challenge the integrity of the great people working there, but I've seen public facing organizations generally hold a more conservative approach when it comes to making calls that could minimize credibility. We see here in this thread people that follow wx closely minimizing this, and the general public for better or worse will fall into the camp of this is the most dangerous thing ever or it's really no big deal. The NHC is in a lose-lose in public perception. Even a TWO mention ramps up the hype machine and everything that comes with it, and if it falls short of expectations in either direction people may be less likely to care about what the NHC says in the future. Hopefully I'm wrong, but its harder for the meteorology to stand alone in this era of social media and hype. Just look at the clowns posing the Sandy 2.0 stuff on Twitter and people sharing 925mb wind plots like we're a few thousand feet higher up. There's a lot of social science and understanding the psychology of the general public that needs to be considered to get people to act appropriately. It is what it is.

…hey so about that 18z euroooo… I’ll come back later, friends…

It was fun while it lasted. This was a great summer.

Fay is officially back from the dead. Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062026 900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026 Convection has redeveloped around the center of Fay and has persisted during the day. An earlier ASCAT pass indicated that the system still had a well-defined circulation. Therefore, Fay meets the criteria to be classified as a tropical cyclone again. The earlier ASCAT pass showed a maximum wind vector of around 31 kt and the most recent TAFB Dvorak classification was at T1.5/25 kt. Based on the given data, Fay's intensity is estimated to be 30 kt. The cyclone is moving just a little south of due west, or around 260/8 kt, as it moves to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge to the northwest. Fay is expected to continue on this general motion for the next several days. The current NHC track forecast is in line with the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. There is a brief opportunity for Fay to regain tropical storm status during the next day or so, however wind shear is expected to increase again after 36 h. This should lead to the cyclone gradually weakening again, with the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low by 60 h, and then dissipating around 96 h, as suggested by simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF global model. The current NHC intensity forecast track is in line with both the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 30.1N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 29.9N 40.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 29.9N 41.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 29.9N 42.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 29.7N 43.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 29.5N 44.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z 29.5N 45.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch

Went down the rabbit hole and found December 1989 and December 2015. Holy crap.

Nothing wrong at all with a reprieve. 16-24 was brutal for the continental U.S. and this year has been bad for Hawaii.

Nobody knows how to have fun around here.

I completely forgot about the ice storm. All I knew then was tropical. We average somewhere between 100-125 at SLK so being above that is interesting. For 2015-16 winter was a disaster.

GDM really hasn’t budged much through all of the model flip flops. I think we have a good sense that this is going to be close to the coast, but intensity is still up in the air.

How was that winter in NNE?

It’s coming

I need hurricanes at this point. Just one or two, but preferably three.

Don’t worry. In a just a few short months we’ll be sitting in 40pg threads tracking a 1-3” clipper.

Funny thing is, if 1888 or 1938 happened again this place would be on fire with mehing, complaining, complaining about the complaining, and strife. I mean RI got a historic blizzard and pages of the thread were filled with all out warfare accordion man.

It’s a coastal rainstorm in September. Who is truly invested in this outside of the usual weenies? We can’t talk about weather around here?

Big Island may be in trouble again…

Looks wet on both models Saturday and Sunday, though not as bad as southern New England. Here's Saturday morning through early Monday afternoon: GFS Euro The exact specifics aren't really worth locking onto, just that the "trend" has been toward a closer approach of the storm and rainier weekend as a result for your purposes.

So much of this stuff depends on location and expectations. 925mb 18z GFS 12z Euro I'm not ready to post the Nammy but it was robust too.

He gone.

Hurricane Polo Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 100 PM CST Tue Sep 22 2026 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS POLO HAS STRENGTHENED EVEN MORE... Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds in Hurricane Polo have increased to near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure has dropped to 892 mb...26.34 inches. Polo is nearly stationary but is expected to move generally west-northwestward over the next couple of days. SUMMARY OF 620 AM AST...1020 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 101.5W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...29.59 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch/Hagen

And there’s your update Hurricane Polo Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 100 PM CST Tue Sep 22 2026 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS POLO HAS STRENGTHENED EVEN MORE... Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds in Hurricane Polo have increased to near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure has dropped to 892 mb...26.34 inches. Polo is nearly stationary but is expected to move generally west-northwestward over the next couple of days. SUMMARY OF 620 AM AST...1020 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 101.5W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 360 MI...575 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...29.59 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch/Hagen