WxWatcher007

Yeah, direct impacts with the eyewall but no landfall.

GDM with a Gulf signal. Need to dig a little deeper on it though. Just been so busy.

I’d sign right now for a repeat. Which year?

Been a minute since we’ve had something to really talk about, but of course, ‘17-‘25 (added 2025 because of the behemoth that was Melissa) was a pace we couldn’t sustain much longer.

Former Dolly with a new burst of convection

Remnants Of Dolly Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042026 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 28 2026 During the past few hours, the center of Dolly passed just north of NOAA buoy 41041, which did not observe any westerly winds. Examination of high-resolution satellite imagery also does not readily indicate any westerly winds south of the center. Based on this, Dolly has become an open tropical wave, with the initial and forecast positions being that of the vorticity maximum. The initial intensity remains 35 kt, with those winds occurring north of the vorticity center. The system is moving 280/22 kt, and this motion should continue for the next 24 h. After that time, a general westward to west- northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed should take the remnants of Dolly near the Leeward Island Saturday night or Sunday, and near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Sunday afternoon or Sunday night. A continued west-northwestward motion is expected after that, with the remnants moving through the Greater Antilles or the Bahamas during the early part of next week. The system is currently in a hostile environment with significant southwesterly shear and dry air. These conditions should continue for at least the next 2-3 days, and the remnants should slowly weaken during this time. The official forecast shows 24 h of points where the maximum winds are at tropical-storm force and there is a well-defined vorticity center. After that, the winds are expected to decrease below 35 kt, and the system center is expected to become less well-defined. Some global models hint at the possibility that Dolly could regenerate in several days, but at this time there is poor agreement on where and when this might occur. Should conditions warrant, further information regarding the potential redevelopment of the remnants of Dolly will be provided in subsequent Tropical Weather Outlooks. This is the last advisory on Dolly issued by the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rains from the remnants of Dolly could affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday with possible impacts in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy rain may produce flash flooding within areas of higher terrain of the Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 15.0N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 29/0000Z 15.6N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 29/1200Z 16.4N 54.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

It’s been fall up here for the last week and a half. It’s coming. 9.78” at WXW1 since July 1. Just incredible rainfall in southern CT, but it’s been your year. Big snows, big storms, big rains…

I’m talking about my response to the post not being political, not the act itself lol. Jesus, people.

**Not making a political statement** It’s an executive order for an executive agency and afaik there’s no law preventing that kind of renaming so they are obligated to follow it. A little more complicated, I think, for something like the Department of Defense, where federal law clearly requires a name change to be approved by Congress.

On the board Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 5 (1) Hurricanes: 3 (0) Major Hurricanes: 1 (0)

First advisory on Dolly coming at 11am.

On the cusp...guidance all over the place

It's a thread the needle type deal because too far of a trend and it'll get ripped apart by the Antilles/Cuba. Long way to go though...guidance all over the place. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL96): Satellite imagery indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, have become better organized tonight. If the current trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a short-lived tropical depression or storm later today. However, environmental conditions are expected to become hostile beginning on Friday, likely ending its chances for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Adams

The only caution flag is that we've had several seasons recently where the Atlantic was dead in August, only to come to life in September and October. Now, my forecast contemplates that and doesn't foresee some sort of structural change that makes the basin more favorable, but I highly doubt we end up with nothing.

The invest doesn’t look half bad. Fun times in a coin flip environment.

My God

In all seriousness…the videos coming out of Nepal are unreal. Legitimately unreal. There’s very little you can do in a situation like that. So sad.

I need to consider a snowmobile now that I have SLK as an option in the winter. A lot of trails up here.

Commie

I think that’ll be very hard as climo is still climo, but at this rate it’s on the board.

Awesome, congrats. With an AN temp winter likely up here I think that opens the door for something juicy. There’s nothing like LES. Yeah we gotta do it at some point. Last year got away from me with my wife’s new job and all but boy did we hit the jackpot. Just over 150” here at SLK with numerous periods below zero. It was heavenly. But yeah we definitely need a chase. If we went down to Buffalo we have the benefit of food, good road infrastructure, and meeting up with the guys out there that chase every year locally. And of course, Watertown is Watertown.

Extraordinarily tough sledding across the basin this season. I kind of feel like this one is important to my peak season forecast.

95L is out of time.

Yeah so much for my thought of a cooler start to September yesterday