WxWatcher007

Yeah time is probably going to be one of the biggest factors here. If it can remain over the Gulf and head west, rather than getting caught up quickly and turned into FL, it should have a window for genesis.

Got a little area of convection off the FL coast. Could become the seedling for our weekend low.

After dropping the signal briefly, AI ensembles in particular are a little more bullish on some development.

38 at SLK and 48.8 at WXW2.

We smoke. Brutal out there this evening.

Interesting given the ensembles look a little more active in the Gulf today.

Yeah not sure there’s going to be enough time for TC genesis, but nothing set in stone yet.

Death band of FU+

Just wake up, take a deep breath, and admire near zero visibility reaching your kitchen?

Have you seen the video? It’s wild.

2-2.75” hail reported in northern NY.

Destructive tag on that supercell now.

Ha that little cell is producing 2” hail and gusts to 70 per the warning.

Solid little cell working its way into northern NY. We’ll see if it holds given the crapvection ahead of it.

I don’t think they have the votes in the Senate. The House is just being dumb because they can’t pass anything important. This may be something the Senate never even takes up if for no other reason than lack of time on the legislative calendar. Enjoy

Classic Congress focusing on the wrong things

Due to more particles suspended aloft?

It’s far from chase country but I can’t believe I’m not up there today.

GDM has nothing! Pretty sensitive setup it seems.

Yeah you can bank on that no matter what I think. Unless you had something truly unprecedented, like a C5 because SSTs and OHC are just astoundingly outside the historical record off like NJ, or the scenario that I posed where the steering pattern entirely collapses over the region, it'd just be climo. New England gets high end wx too, it's just less frequent.

Still pretty active on Euro AI Ens. Waiting to see GDM.

Still pretty active

The most likely however, is a scenario where something pops off the SE coast or in the Bahamas and it simply intensifies upon final approach or is injected with energy by an approaching trough. Isaias was a good example of this. It was middling off the coast of FL but intensified as it hit NC, and although it was weakening up the coast the trough injection made a difference in NE impacts before the thing could fall apart substantially. That's what I'd imagine is possible in a hostile year like this. Getting a CV monster to cross the Atlantic or a tempest to explode in the Caribbean is going to be extremely difficult. You'd need a seedling in the Bahamas or off the Carolina coast that simply found a favorable enough environment and enough time to ramp up.

This. "Low end" C4 is probably the best we can do, and everything would have to align to create the conditions to blunt rapid weakening and/or extratropical transition. There's so much that would factor into whether potential is maximized. But we don't need the highest end cane to have high end impacts. As I see it, a large and inertially stable C4/C5 hurricane, taking 1) the 1938 track that blasts to Montreal, 2) a hook left to bring the RFQ into NY Harbor, or 3) an eastward slide that brings the RFQ from Groton to Boston are the nightmare scenarios. The other, which we don't talk about but I think is increasingly on the table given CC, is a scenario where a tropical entity is drawn up into the region using the canonical synoptic setup to bring it here, but we see a collapse of the steering flow as it arrives and a biblical rainfall results. It has happened in the recent past in the south (Imelda, Florence as examples) but I think Henri, for all its failure to deliver wind, was proof of concept in New England.