WxWatcher007

He's a clown, but last year it all but ended on 7/30.

Heyyy we have homebrew No time to do much analysis right now, but the intensity trend has been ticking up with models starting to latch onto the idea that this stays over water. If this stays south of Louisiana, watch out.

I'll also say this is a big, big win for AI guidance, especially Euro AI and Euro AI ensembles. It identified the window and also latched onto a more western track early on. I continue to be highly impressed by AI sniffing out windows in marginal conditions.

The underrated days are often the best days. Tends to be a good rule of thumb around here. So many of our higher end days seem to be conditional, so it's no surprise that up here those conditions are harder to meet than most other places that get storms.

We bust.

Severe season ends with a dud. At least we had July 4th.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91): Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad surface low is located over the eastern Gulf of America. The associated winds are currently light, and the shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. However, gradual development of this system is possible, and it could become a tropical depression while it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward during the next few days. Interests along the Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia should monitor the progress of this system as it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if needed. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

Discrete this afternoon, the line this evening.

Still a fair amount of ensembles that are showing development if this can stay out over water rather than get turned into FL. Good mid-level spin, but no real organization happening yet.

Mid-level spin but no indication of real organization yet.

Some pretty nasty supercell and sig tor numbers for western CT and points west on the 12z 3K Nammy. Soundings for HFD, BDL, and BDR. I'm still fairly skeptical of high end stuff here but I think it's an active day.

And not just the overall categorical risk. The 5% tor and wind has been pulled east as well.

Yep, totally agree. This will take some time if there’s going to be a true effort at TC genesis. The overall track and time over the Gulf is all important here IMO.

Might be some flood risk if those storms train in CT.

I love those offers

That would be the way to make it happen.

We started talking Monday about the potential for homebrew this weekend and now we have a seedling off the west coast of Florida. The visible satellite shows what looks like a mid-level circulation with a complex of thunderstorms. This area is related to a stalled frontal boundary, which is a climatologically favored way for homebrew development this time of year. The environment is marginal, but in my estimation more favorable than what we saw with our first and only TC of the season so far, Arthur. The area its expected to traverse is one of the warmer spots in the Gulf relative to normal. Looking at Euro and GFS analysis, while there is modest dry air lurking, moisture seems to be present enough to allow for convection to fire should this want to organize. A true limiting factor eventually may be the presence of shear to the north, but at the moment that is not hindering today's convection. The biggest factor IMO on whether this is able to develop, is how much time it has over water. This area is in a location trapped between a ridge in the Gulf and a ridge in the western Atlantic, which should allow it to meander for now. However, as a trough swings in, that will open a path for this to get shunted north/NNE. If that happens, development will be unlikely. The GFS, which has been far less bullish on TC genesis chances from the very beginning, shows this well. However, if that trough is not able to turn this area quickly, it could get trapped under a building ridge in the wake of the trough, pushing this further west and keeping the window for development open long enough for genesis to occur. The Euro AI has been most bullish on this scenario. The ensembles have waffled back and forth, but this season I've been putting more stock into the AI ensembles and GDM (Google DeepMind). You'll see a modest signal below from both the Euro AI and GDM, and the further west the low tracks the better the chance for development. So today it's worth watching how this area off the FL coast tries to fire persistent convection, and if it can organize as a result. This weekend the trends on track will be crucial to whether we see homebrew development or not.

Not the worst look on visible, but for TC genesis it's going to need to be able to fire more persistent convection.

Just have to stay offshore. Needs to get suppressed in the Gulf rather than dragged back into FL like some models try. Also--just looked at the 12z NAM for tomorrow. Active day ahead?

Yeah time is probably going to be one of the biggest factors here. If it can remain over the Gulf and head west, rather than getting caught up quickly and turned into FL, it should have a window for genesis.

Got a little area of convection off the FL coast. Could become the seedling for our weekend low.

After dropping the signal briefly, AI ensembles in particular are a little more bullish on some development.

38 at SLK and 48.8 at WXW2.