WxWatcher007

The main thread can get messy so quickly

That’d be in line with the hurricane models that show takeoff this afternoon.

Thoughts on LF location? I feel like I can’t rule out a direct hit in the Bay south of Tallahassee, but could easily see a last minute east trend.

Thanks. Really rural out here so not a ton of options. Really tough center forecast when a few miles makes a huge difference. Watching that west trend among the hurricane models too.

Rotating upshear too. If it can solidify the eyewall the intensification pace should pick up substantially.

You can see it in the dropsondes. Especially the latest NE eyewall one.

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 14:29ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)Storm Name: IdaliaStorm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 10Observation Number: 25 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 13:30:53ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.29N 84.85WB. Center Fix Location: 177 statute miles (285 km) to the WNW (297°) from Havana, Cuba.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,931m (9,616ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 978mb (28.88 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 310° at 10kts (From the NW at 12mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 45kts (51.8mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the SW (217°) of center fix at 13:28:40ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 317° at 51kts (From the NW at 58.7mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SW (222°) of center fix at 13:27:46ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 70kts (80.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (55°) of center fix at 13:34:45ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 163° at 71kts (From the SSE at 81.7mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix at 13:35:59ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,064m (10,052ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) from the flight level center at 13:35:59Z

Closed eye now per recon Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 14:29ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)Storm Name: IdaliaStorm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 10Observation Number: 25 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 13:30:53ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.29N 84.85WB. Center Fix Location: 177 statute miles (285 km) to the WNW (297°) from Havana, Cuba.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,931m (9,616ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 978mb (28.88 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 310° at 10kts (From the NW at 12mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 45kts (51.8mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the SW (217°) of center fix at 13:28:40ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 317° at 51kts (From the NW at 58.7mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the SW (222°) of center fix at 13:27:46ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 70kts (80.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (55°) of center fix at 13:34:45ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 163° at 71kts (From the SSE at 81.7mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix at 13:35:59ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,059m (10,036ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,064m (10,052ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) from the flight level center at 13:35:59Z

Always!

I'm in Chiefland, FL this morning, just inland from Cedar Key. We have a hurricane warning here and folks are taking the storm seriously. The forecast for the center is very tricky even now, as some models have been trending westward toward a near direct hit of Tallahassee while others are further east down to Cedar Key. The parallel track along the west coast of Florida makes this hard. I am hedging east right now, but am prepared to move north if necessary this evening. Will monitor trends. As is usually the case, my friend @MillvilleWx is in communication with me, and this time I'm grateful to have @ORH_wxman supporting as well. If I lose power and internet, I'll be in touch with them so that everyone here knows I'm ok. Driving in last night there was a wicked storm to my south. Perhaps a preview...

HWRF is being retired by HAFS, but I think they’re all excellent. There’s just a lot of uncertainty on where this tops out.

This is WxWatcher007 reporting live from Chiefland, FL, just inland from Cedar Key. We have a hurricane warning here and folks are taking the storm seriously. The forecast for the center is very tricky even now, as some models have been trending westward toward a near direct hit of Tallahassee while others are further east down to Cedar Key. The parallel track along the west coast of Florida makes this hard. I am hedging east right now, but am prepared to move north if necessary this evening. Will monitor trends. As is usually the case, my friend @MillvilleWx is in communication with me, and this time I'm grateful to have @ORH_wxman supporting as well. If I lose power and internet, I'll be in touch with them so that everyone here knows I'm ok. Driving in last night there was a wicked storm to my south. Perhaps a preview...

There’s your 69-70kt SFMR.

I think it’s a hurricane, but the winds on recon haven’t been that impressive. Yet.

Yeah, it really doesn’t take off until this afternoon on the hurricane guidance, and it’s a 120kt storm on HAFS A & B.

First VDM confirms the presence of an eye Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 11:57ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)Storm Name: IdaliaStorm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 10Observation Number: 08 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 11:27:00ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 23.73N 84.75WB. Center Fix Location: 157 statute miles (253 km) to the WNW (286°) from Havana, Cuba.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,931m (9,616ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 979mb (28.91 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 235° at 20kts (From the SW at 23mph)F. Eye Character: Spiral BandG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 63kts (72.5mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NNW (343°) of center fix at 11:24:36ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 93° at 46kts (From the E at 52.9mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NNW (344°) of center fix at 11:23:56ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 62kts (71.3mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the S (178°) of center fix at 11:29:54ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 270° at 58kts (From the W at 66.7mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the S (178°) of center fix at 11:31:09ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,060m (10,039ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,070m (10,072ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) which was observed 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the S (178°) from the flight level center at 11:31:09Z

7:00 AM CDT Tue Aug 29Location: 23.8°N 84.8°WMoving: N at 14 mphMin pressure: 977 mbMax sustained: 80 mph

Center dropsonde. Pressure probably down to about 977mb. Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 11:38ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)Storm Name: IdaliaStorm Number: 10 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 10Observation Number: 05Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 11Z on the 29th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb Coordinates: 23.7N 84.7W Location: 154 statute miles (247 km) to the WNW (285°) from Havana, Cuba. Marsden Square: 081 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -193m (-633 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 979mb (28.91 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 29.6°C (85.3°F) 27.4°C (81°F) 235° (from the SW) 20 knots (23 mph) 925mb 504m (1,654 ft) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 24.6°C (76°F) 245° (from the WSW) 23 knots (26 mph) 850mb 1,249m (4,098 ft) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 19.8°C (68°F) 240° (from the WSW) 20 knots (23 mph) 700mb 2,932m (9,619 ft) 16.4°C (61.5°F) 12.9°C (55°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 11:27Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 23.72N 84.74W - Time: 11:27:26Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 23.72N 84.72W - Time: 11:31:33Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 250° (from the WSW) - Wind Speed: 24 knots (28 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 255° (from the WSW) - Wind Speed: 17 knots (20 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 706mb to 978mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 250° (from the WSW) - Wind Speed: 24 knots (28 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30409 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 979mb (Surface) 29.6°C (85.3°F) 27.4°C (81°F) 908mb 24.4°C (75.9°F) 24.0°C (75°F) 850mb 24.0°C (75.2°F) 19.8°C (68°F) 796mb 22.2°C (72.0°F) About 17°C (63°F) 727mb 17.2°C (63.0°F) 15.6°C (60°F) 699mb 16.4°C (61.5°F) 12.7°C (55°F) Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 979mb (Surface) 235° (from the SW) 20 knots (23 mph) 968mb 250° (from the WSW) 25 knots (29 mph) 850mb 240° (from the WSW) 20 knots (23 mph) 791mb 260° (from the W) 11 knots (13 mph) 743mb 310° (from the NW) 11 knots (13 mph) 706mb 300° (from the WNW) 7 knots (8 mph)

As expected. Dropsonde in the southern eyewall is quite a bit stronger than the northern side right now. Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 11:45ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)Storm Name: IdaliaStorm Number: 10 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 10Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 12Z on the 29th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb Coordinates: 23.5N 84.7W Location: 151 statute miles (242 km) to the W (280°) from Havana, Cuba. Marsden Square: 081 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -99m (-325 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 989mb (29.21 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 25.8°C (78°F) 210° (from the SSW) 66 knots (76 mph) 925mb 591m (1,939 ft) 23.2°C (73.8°F) 22.4°C (72°F) 230° (from the SW) 75 knots (86 mph) 850mb 1,328m (4,357 ft) 20.4°C (68.7°F) 17.9°C (64°F) 255° (from the WSW) 76 knots (87 mph) 700mb 2,988m (9,803 ft) Other data not available. Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 11:30Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 180° (S) from the eye center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 23.52N 84.74W - Time: 11:30:11Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 23.55N 84.66W - Time: 11:34:30Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 220° (from the SW) - Wind Speed: 73 knots (84 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 250° (from the WSW) - Wind Speed: 66 knots (76 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 707mb to 988mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 154 gpm - 4 gpm (505 geo. feet - 13 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 215° (from the SW) - Wind Speed: 71 knots (82 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30409 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 989mb (Surface) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 25.8°C (78°F) 935mb 23.6°C (74.5°F) 23.0°C (73°F) 850mb 20.4°C (68.7°F) 17.9°C (64°F) 700mb 13.0°C (55.4°F) 12.6°C (55°F) Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 989mb (Surface) 210° (from the SSW) 66 knots (76 mph) 967mb 220° (from the SW) 76 knots (87 mph) 961mb 220° (from the SW) 72 knots (83 mph) 939mb 225° (from the SW) 76 knots (87 mph) 850mb 255° (from the WSW) 76 knots (87 mph) 707mb 275° (from the W) 56 knots (64 mph)

Kind of a ho hum pass there. Good look structurally but FL and SFMR are not particularly strong. Peak SFMR just under 64kt. That said, that was N to S. I expect stronger findings on the eastern side.

First pass from N to S has an extrapolated pressure of 973.9mb at about 10k ft. Awaiting dropsonde and sampling of southern portion of possible eyewall.

Looking at Cuba and now Key West radar you can see an increasingly organized system. That first recon pass and VDM will be very interesting.

Didn't add to the post, but recent microwave imagery suggests a nearly completed eyewall.

Recon is in the air and will soon provide critical structural and heading data on a strengthening Hurricane Idalia. Idalia has remained resilient in the face of moderate shear the last few days, gradually organizing and attempting to fire convection consistent enough to establish an inner core. This morning satellite and radar show that with shear decreasing Idalia is beginning to develop an inner core, with deep convection rotating around the center in the image above and an eye feature evident on radar. Recon will be important in assessing just how far along this inner core process has progressed, and whether there is still significant vortex tilting, which can still be possible if there's enough shear still present. My guess looking at the radar however, is that the vortex tilting that was an issue 24 hours ago is no longer enough to keep this from increasing its rate of intensification. According to CMISS analysis, shear is now in the favorable zone and expected to remain so until landfall. As the trough sets up during Idalia's final approach, upper diffluence combined with increasing OHC and SSTs will almost certainly allow for rapid intensification. (SST image courtesy of Brian McNoldy) Once rapid intensification occurs, and it is explicitly forecast by the NHC, we don't know where it'll stop. Time will be a limiting factor, but it cuts both ways. On on hand, there may not be enough time for the very high ceiling for Idalia to be reached. On the other, the lack of time means that a structural change, such as an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC) is less likely. There is also modest but meaningful divergence in track. The consensus among most guidance is to bring this further north, while the European Model and stronger members of the EPS have a further east landfall. It's been talked about around here but we will need to watch for deviations closely, as there are almost always small changes that have a substantial impact on sensible weather. To be clear--nobody living in the region should merely look at the center track. Heavy rain, storm surge, and strong to destructive winds will be possible far outside the center. Given the parallel run up the west coast of Florida however, where the center landfalls is obviously important for surge and strongest wind impacts. The 06z GFS ticked ever so slightly east relative to 00z. Watch the organizational trends, pace of intensification, and the wobbles relative to long term heading. It should be an active day.