WxWatcher007

Center sonde Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 23:50ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306Storm Name: LeeStorm Number: 13 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 2Observation Number: 07 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 0Z on the 8th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb Coordinates: 16.9N 51.7W Location: 589 statute miles (948 km) to the ENE (64°) from Bridgetown, Barbados. Marsden Square: 042 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 936mb (27.64 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 28.4°C (83.1°F) 26.0°C (79°F) Unavailable 925mb 103m (338 ft) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 24.5°C (76°F) 230° (from the SW) 41 knots (47 mph) 850mb 851m (2,792 ft) 25.0°C (77.0°F) About 20°C (68°F) 240° (from the WSW) 36 knots (41 mph) 700mb 2,558m (8,392 ft) 25.6°C (78.1°F) About 8°C (46°F) No Wind Report Available For This Level Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 23:35Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 16.93N 51.69W - Time: 23:35:55Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 16.94N 51.67W - Time: 23:38:54Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 230° (from the SW) - Wind Speed: 42 knots (48 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 240° (from the WSW) - Wind Speed: 29 knots (33 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 709mb to 934mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 163 gpm - 13 gpm (535 geo. feet - 43 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 230° (from the SW) - Wind Speed: 40 knots (46 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30407 Height of the last reported wind: 13 geopotential meters Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 936mb (Surface) 28.4°C (83.1°F) 26.0°C (79°F) 892mb 24.6°C (76.3°F) 23.3°C (74°F) 850mb 25.0°C (77.0°F) About 20°C (68°F) 778mb 24.0°C (75.2°F) About 15°C (59°F) 748mb 24.8°C (76.6°F) About 13°C (55°F) 741mb 24.6°C (76.3°F) About 12°C (54°F) 715mb 26.6°C (79.9°F) About 8°C (46°F) Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 936mb (Surface) Unavailable 934mb 220° (from the SW) 34 knots (39 mph) 931mb 225° (from the SW) 41 knots (47 mph) 900mb 235° (from the SW) 43 knots (49 mph) 866mb 240° (from the WSW) 42 knots (48 mph) 850mb 240° (from the WSW) 36 knots (41 mph) 821mb 235° (from the SW) 26 knots (30 mph) 795mb 255° (from the WSW) 27 knots (31 mph) 749mb 250° (from the WSW) 20 knots (23 mph) 722mb 265° (from the W) 15 knots (17 mph) 709mb 260° (from the W) 14 knots (16 mph)

Barely sampled the NE quad too.

First center dropsonde puts minimum pressure in the low 930s.

Easily. Unreal.

This is a five. Easily.

Holy moly. 928.0mb extrapolated pressure. Peak FL winds of 140kt and SFMR of 138, 139, 144kts. Wow.

Plenty of time for the last second kick east.

Recon in storm and approaching the center.

Recon is about to find something insane. You rarely ever see this in the basin.

Haha beat me to it. Recon down to 10k ft.

It’s amazing. HAFS can’t even keep up with the rate of intensification. We’ll see how high it goes before the ERC.

Recon is fairly close. They should start descending shortly but it’ll probably be a while until they get the first center fix in.

It’s still east of NE verbatim, but was west overall in LF location—a direct hit on Nova Scotia as opposed to a track near/over Newfoundland at 12z and 06z. Really hard to figure out specifics of this steering pattern long range but the trend seems to be west the last ~36 hours.

50mph gain in 12 hours.

With Lee becoming a major and Margot now expected to become a hurricane, forecast is in even better shape. WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20) Named Storms: 13 (9) Hurricanes: 6 (3) Major Hurricanes: 3 (3) Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot

Skipped straight to cat 4

Meh. Glorified nor’easter.

Settle down lol

High of 94.5°

I think this can adjust west further, but not that far. This’d be a lock if that trough were going negative, but it looks like those pulling for a hit will have to rely on positioning and timing.

It’s intensifying at an extraordinary rate…

Still just getting started too

I think that one is to sample the environment?

Those hits are great for a Typhoon Tip memorial dopamine drip, but always lead to a hell of a crash--as we saw all last "winter".

That's all I'm following at this point (still) Don't care where Lee gets placed exactly on a TT plot.