WxWatcher007

56.1° here

It's a pretty worthless number coming on Feb 26, but if I had to place odds on 200+ ACE (and for those not tuned into tropical it’s only occurred 8 times since 1851 and last happened in 2017) I’d put it at ~20% given what I see now. In an absolute sense that’s a small chance but measured against climo that’s a big number. As an aside, 1893 and 1926 are incredible ACE seasons (231 & 230) where there were only 12 and 11 NS respectively. Talk about degree of difficulty.

I don’t pay attention to the correlation between ACE and winter seasons, but my initial thought as we approach tropical preseason is that the Atlantic will be historically (let’s say top 10 for now and choose your metric—it won’t matter IMO) active. Unlike the last few seasons which started with significant questions or mitigating factors to diminish potential, this coming season appears to be all systems go as long as we don’t see a lagging atmospheric response from the decaying Nino.

With historic rains in between. Can't make it up.

If I remember correctly, that was the warmest temperature all year lol.

Oh yeah, definitely grateful for it. We had sustained snow cover after it too. But we know overall it was a torch and nowhere near normal snow again. This BN useless cold pattern is insult to injury.

Winter had its chance and failed. It’s time to warm it up and begin outdoors season. Maybe we’ll have a real winter in 25-26.

For all the threads we’ve had in recent years chasing ghosts, this legacy thread is totally fine to me—not that it matters. I kind of like counting down to May even though it means nothing in the whole scheme of things. Love ya Wiz but reread this. High risk in the northeast ain’t happening lol. Going to the Plains is absolutely worth it. You don’t need high or even mod risk days to get good chasing in, and it can be done without driving 1,000 miles in a day. Given your knowledge you’d probably do very well sniffing out the under the radar setups, which significantly reduces the risk of chaser convergence. In my three times out there I’ve never come close to having issues with other people. My biggest challenges were the road network (stay off the dirt roads!) and staying well ahead of initiation. I love it out there. Worth every penny and ounce of effort.

Working out in a committed way in the last year fundamentally changed my life for the better.

Almost time to start thinking tropical. Preseason (May) isn’t too far away.

It has a really good objective track record. Even without Ellinwood or Ian posting much of something legit is on the way the usually come back to post.

@Kmlwx The timeless scale. Each person has to be on board for the step to be activated.

1.3 final. Already melting but we take snow on snow.

Roads look fine but it’s coming down nicely here.

Maybe? 20-21 was the only year I’ve gotten close to climo in the last half decade.

Last year there was no hope here in CT while other places at least had something. This year it’s the opposite. It’s still pretty terrible regionally and I feel for those being left out—knew that feeling all too well last year. Hopefully next week produces for us all.

Congrats dude that’s awesome.

.7” of fluff on the board. Really is beautiful.

You got to know when to hold ‘em Know when to fold ‘em Know when to walk away Know when to run You never measure snowfall When you’re lookin’ at a model They’ll be time enough for measurin’ When the storm is done

Good luck tonight, everyone.

Absolutely. Totality or bust.

Co-sign.

Glad we had cake this week rather than gagging on the alternative to the brink of unconsciousness.

High res probably gone wild but making me sit up a little for tomorrow’s system.