WxWatcher007

The summer of dews and deluge is coming…

The VIL on some of these has been legit.

Good thread here. It threaded the needle until it could no longer. The introduction of shear this morning disrupted it just enough (though I still think this was a TC). Regardless of the outcome, these close to the coast cases are always a learning opportunity for identifying TC genesis and organizational potential. Sadly, there were reported fatalities in Florida due to rip currents.

I only had .33” of rain on the month. About to surpass that today.

High on my EH station so far is 92.3°. First heat wave of the year. 92/71 at HFD.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92): Satellite imagery and National Weather Service Doppler radar data indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with a well-defined low pressure area centered about 80 miles east-southeast of Brunswick, Georgia, continue to lack the necessary organization for the low to be considered a tropical cyclone. Recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that winds to 35 mph are occurring in association with the low. Only a small increase in the organization of the showers and thunderstorms could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression before it reaches the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia tonight, and interests there should monitor its progress. For more information, refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, as well as local forecasts issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

It looks like a standard sheared TC to me. These things can get subjective though. Not issuing a PTC is telling imo.

Given the special TWO, I’m guessing they will want to see convection organize for a few hours. 2pm may be the next opportunity for a designation? It’s also curious that we’re talking about a TD when unflagged TS force SFMR were recorded. Of course, those could just be gusts that are discounted until there are more uniform FL/SFMR above 35kt.

To @jbenedet’s point—they want to see more.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1035 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special outlook issued to update discussion of the low pressure system over the southwestern Atlantic (AL92). Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92): Updated: Recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and visible satellite imagery indicate that the area of low pressure located about 120 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida, has developed a well-defined center of circulation and is producing winds to near 35 mph, but the associated showers and thunderstorms are not quite organized enough for this system to be considered a tropical cyclone. However, only a small increase in the organization of the showers and thunderstorms could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression before it reaches the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia tonight, and interests there should monitor its progress. For more information, refer to High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, as well as local forecasts issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

It is quite a high pressure

We have a center fix Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 14:02ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 2Observation Number: 11 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 13:37:20ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 30.37N 79.52WB. Center Fix Location: 122 statute miles (196 km) to the NE (49°) from Daytona Beach, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1014mb (29.95 inHg) - ExtrapolatedE. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NAF. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 29kts (33.4mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the W (274°) of center fix at 13:29:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 24° at 33kts (From the NNE at 38.0mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the WNW (290°) of center fix at 13:20:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 37kts (42.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 5 nautical miles to the E (95°) of center fix at 13:40:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 163° at 33kts (From the SSE at 38.0mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 3 nautical miles to the ENE (69°) of center fix at 13:39:30ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 416m (1,365ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 423m (1,388ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 1,500 feetT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 33kts (~ 38.0mph) which was observed 51 nautical miles (59 statute miles) to the WNW (290°) from the flight level center at 13:20:00Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1500 feet

It’s had persistent convection for well over the past day I believe and has organized a tighter circulation since then. Yesterday it was barely closed so I understood keeping it an invest. Today even with more ragged convection I think it meets the criteria even if the center is a bit displaced. I don’t think this is merely a surface trough.

To be sure, it’s far from the prettiest, but I think there’s enough to be designated.

Recon is in there and with a much more defined center, persistent convection, and SFMR around 34kts, I think this is a TS.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92): A small but concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms persists with an area of low pressure located around 225 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida. However, it is unclear if the system possesses a well-defined surface circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally conducive for some additional development, and this system could become a short-lived tropical depression as the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast later today, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this morning, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

I see what you’re saying, though I think I’d like for it to be more organized. Also, recon is pushed to ~8am per one of the flight mets on Twitter.

92L is really trying to thread the needle. It’s been successful so far…

I don’t want to oversell it because it could still be disorganized under the hood, but this is impressive tonight. Very strong convection continues to fire, it’s hard to tell at this stage but it looks like it’s trying to establish some ventilation on the RGB water vapor (not pictured below) and it’s yet to cross the Gulf Stream, which may aid in continuing convection. What’s most impressive is 92L so far threading the needle in a very hostile moisture environment. @Kevin Reilly pointed it out earlier but the thunderstorms around 92L have thus far kept this insulated from dry air choking off the convective engine, and now we’re seeing a consolidation of those storms around what was a weak but closed circulation earlier. That’s really a feat that’s helped by being in a low shear/high SST environment. As this gets into radar range we’re obviously watching for a tighter LLC, but watch to see if there’s spiral banding ahead of the center getting into range. If so, that would be evidence that this has organized sufficiently to be designated as a TC.

No, just up here for a while for some personal stuff. It’s not the worst drive, but five days a week would be tough.

92L is really overperforming imo when it comes to firing convection. If it can get a tighter LLC tonight and keep the convection firing it should become a TC. It’s a low shear environment with SSTs that will get warmer as 92L gets closer to shore. On the other hand, dry air continues to lurk to the south, and it needs to really consolidate the closed circulation. Tonight will be very interesting as it gets in radar range. Given the near coast TC genesis cases from the last few years, I do believe we get a quick named storm here.

Phil visited Albany while my dumb ass was west trying to get pretty pictures.

Branches of different sizes down all around this area of Albany.