WxWatcher007

Hopefully someday I can enjoy a real hailstorm. Nada here in central CT. Even NW kinda struck out.

1.5” hail reported in Pomfret.

Good luck. Looked like more straight line than tor to me but congrats E CT.

Congrats Russell

Pocket of 1k ML CAPE into western CT now. If we can get something to fire we could rock for a bit. Shear is legit on mesoanalysis.

Going up quickly too. Won’t be long until they’re warned.

80/63 at Danbury

I thought it was on the profile, but noted. East Hartford, CT

First breaks of sun here

3k NAM has a fair amount of clearing down in CT by mid afternoon.

Wiz is down on it.

I agree that storm mode did look mostly messy, and that’s what happened for the most part. Also agree about parameters. They look pretty and can be valuable, but it doesn’t replace a fundamental understanding of the environment itself.

I hear you. I don’t think I saw the SPC or local news go over the top with this. I think a lot of the general public expects imby precision that just isn’t possible. I don’t know how we get over that communication gap, but I think that’s a big piece of it. I am a believer of only using extreme language in extreme events but your “chance of a tornado” example isn’t a case of that. If there’s a tornado risk albeit small, how do you leave that out of a forecast? Usually what I do is try to explain the SPC percentages. People tend to get that. For example, there’s a risk, but it’s 2%. There’s a greater chance of wind damage so let’s focus on that. If I need to explain more I do. If I see something that enhances or mitigates a risk I (usually) say it.

Opening bid—subject to change 28/13/6

OKC ASOS gusted to 69mph. Just outside of the PDS severe warning. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=Kokc#

A number of tornado warnings in Missouri right now as well

PDS severe thunderstorm warning for the cell near Norman?

With the warning issued I hope everyone in Barnsdall was able to seek shelter in time.

I know most discussion has been OK and KS but three Tor warnings up north of Sioux Falls as well along the convective line.

IIRC, ‘98 was the mod risk day? Was 2011 a slight risk? Not as familiar with our severe history but what a monster.

One day we’ll get a high risk here…and folks will be calling bust by 10am as usual.

It’s big time. Everything does seem lined up for a big season. The only caveat I’ll add is that we probably need to see decent early season activity in NS and maybe H to be in line for a highest end season. This is probably a long season through October/early November though.