bristolri_wx

What a great February, I mean March, outlook!

We needed this pattern 30 days ago lol!

About 4” here. Very wet probably 6/8-1 ratio. 

If you have 6 minutes to kill... 

17 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

The good thing is it's snowing. The bad is that I'm comfortably observing it outside in a hoody. 

Enjoy it while you can!  I'm no longer working in Newport, so I won't miss the ride south and seeing less and less snow until I drove into a parking lot full of slush!  You should still manage several inches there before temps warm up tomorrow.

When you have an AppleTV, a RadarScope subscription, and nothing else to watch you do some work before bed…

I’ll tag myself now… 

2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I love JamesV2.0 hes always entertaining and full of surprises. The latest is more like JamesV2.1...he seems to have installed a recent update though that's causing some short-circuits, may have to roll it back. 

Just like the Euro, it ain’t what it used to be.

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, I was just gonna say this is the first event all year…. all.effing.year that didn’t go the wrong direction inside of 36 hours.

But even this one is “weird”. How often does E RI get more snowfall than E MA when it’s not a scraper? The east/west snowfall gradient is an unusual (but not unheard of) one.

Boy the NAM has been consistently bullish on this event for many runs now.  Interesting to see if it wins this one...

11 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Forum is on a budget? purchased it from $1 emoji dot com ?

12 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Whats up with this new thumbs down emoji? It looks nothing like the others stylisitcally and ghetto af...

Looks to already have disappeared. The Keyser Soze of emoji…

1 hour ago, George001 said:

I hope it goes north so much it rains on all of SNE. If it’s not going to be much anyways, missing out isn’t going to be that bad. Besides, it would be worth it just to see the reactions from the board.

Well that forced me to use thumbs down for the first time. Didn’t take long…

Speak for yourself man. You start a “blizzard” thread and then you want it to rain? Now that’s gonna get you nodded at some point… and usually I enjoy the bullish perspective of your posts.

Had about 1” here before it lightened up. Nice to see it snowing at 20 degrees, very Feb 2015-ish lol…

It’s not looking terrible! Most promise for us coastal plainer’s since December. I’ll take it as at least it’s of interest to track the next few days.

Just now, Torch Tiger said:

30+ easy. locked

Oh come on it’s been a Torch Tiger winter let the snow enthusiasts enjoy one south of the pike… even if it implodes on 2/27!

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

It’s been a while since Mr. Zeroateightfifty went for a relaxing cruise in the North Atlantic during a storm. 

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z eps looks great. Jesus.

Too good to be true!

EDIT: Not the 18z my apologies. But still looking good at 12z.

My va-vo (Portuguese Great-Grandmother) used to say a cold snowy winter killed the germs and bugs in the ground.  Since it's been such a warm mostly snow-less winter, chlorine rain might get the job done instead!

Pingers coming down at time mixed with rain. Wind picking up…

USDW+ 37 degrees.

1 hour ago, greenmtnwx said:

This is all fair but I think the flip side of it is that some of the truly great mets and talents on the board this winter have taken the model weenie bait a little too easy. Part of forecasting and recognition is that the SE ridge is always stronger this season. Biting a little too easy on every 8 or 10 day “SWFE” into Pittsburgh event. The pattern sucks and is biased towards sucking, recognizing that I think became wise about a month ago. It’s understandable though and driven by the frustration of a historically bad winter. 

I think your mistake there is “always”. Nothing with the weather is “always”, it’s chaos and more chaos, and sometimes the chaos provides more persistent results. Other changes are underway so the SE ridge persistence may break at some point soon.

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Mariano Rivera warming up…

Great, as long as Ortiz and Mueller are not on deck!

17 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

How does the dog feel?

He took it in stride.  Did his business then went right for the door to get back in the house!

10 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Ugh dog is barking to go outside... guess he doesn't care it's -3/-24 out...

Well that wasn’t enjoyable… lol…

Ugh dog is barking to go outside... guess he doesn't care it's -3/-24 out...

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Basically on the forum there’s NNE that hasn’t had a stellar winter, but many are halfway to average with two months to go…and sitting with 12-18” on the ground currently.

On the flip side there are a good deal of posters where winter has been more of an abstract concept than a real entity this season.

And it’s stark, the gradient has been very real and very sharp. It’s leading to two very different frames of mind when analyzing data, statements, or sentiment. 

I'm surprised at the number of people giving up and selling (ie "not invested").  Canada continues to look cold the next 5-6 weeks.  Threading the needle has moved from a sewing needle to a knitting needle.  Sure, it's gonna be AN at times with the SE ridge, but, at the same time, there could easily be a couple of moderate to strong storms that develop between the cold air to our north, the ridge to the south, and the +3 to +5C SST's in the Atlantic near us.  That ridge isn't going to be maxing at all times throughout Feb, and the despite the some of the maps shown recently, the ensembles show the southeast and the mid-atlantic warming the most, not us.

Given our luck, it could all go to shit, but, if you want to see a little more snow this season south of the pike, there's definitely some hope.  Can't call the rat just yet...

Get a sixer for the weekend...

3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Temperatures are easier to model at longer lead times than snowfall.

Sorry, meant 0" of snow (as in the Euro map recently posted at 240 hrs).  Maps of the GFS showing 20-30" of snow were weenied immensely last week, if I'm not mistaken.  Both are probably wrong, that was more of my point...