bristolri_wx

Solid...

36 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Thanks for updates fellas, haven't had a chance myself to look at any H5 trends...

Seems solutions have stabilized away from the north tics earlier today and all give ESNE at least some CCB treatment, widespread SNE 6-12" 

Critical window and probably last opportunity for drastic changes would be  6z-12z guidance as shortwave energy enters BC ~6z Friday

I'll be back for Euro

NWS ticked a bit up at coast on 7pm update:

Expect more SE of I-95 in the morning.  They haven't adjusted much in their AFD since this afternoon.  Models have been improving closer to the coast.  I noticed the sounding over my house has had the warm layer at 800mb reduced significantly.  I think unless you are a few miles from the ocean or cape/islands 5-10 or 6-12 is possible unless the modeling regresses on Friday and Saturday.

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

A foot+ mean by hour 360 region wide.  As in all 6 states.

 

 

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

What a rotten airmass for winter. Neither cold enough for snow or warm enough for a good mid-winters torch. Just take your anti-depressants bleh air. LOL…

If you think things are bad now - just think, December 21 is right around the corner, days will be getting longer, and Winter will begin to fade.

28 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Wind....ZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Backside Snow.....Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

“Wind and backside snow will help you get your z’s.”

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m sure there’s retirement forums for 80 yr olds  talking about warm weather for you.

https://community.aarp.org/t5/Retirement/ct-p/WorkandRetirement

My two cents (and maybe not even worth that) - however this winter turns out, there should be confidence that it will be different than last year. Whether that ends up being more snow or more cold remains to be seen. What we do know is that from June until now, we’ve been in a much different pattern compared to last year. Maybe we end up both warmer and snowier thanks to the way things end up falling into place. If we “rat” I bet it will be in an entirely different way than 2022-2023.

Not basing this on lots of numbers, just observation and common sense that this years atmospheric chaos seems to be a lot different than last years atmospheric chaos. We shall see! 

45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think Bill Belichick’s been overly exposed and I don’t know why it’s taking the Krafts so long to realize this and move on

All dynasties end like this.  It is what it is.

I fully admit it’s nice to see blue spots on the GFS and Euro reappearing on their Continental US precip maps, even if it’s not near us.

Beautiful night for a dog walk tonight down here. Enjoy it while you can.

6 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

This is by far and away one of the best days of the year. Today is the definition of perfection. Will be sitting outside drinking some beers watching the pats game.

Hope those beers were really really good.

I can see it.. I can smell it… 

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

This is by far and away one of the best days of the year. Today is the definition of perfection. Will be sitting outside drinking some beers watching the pats game.

Watching the Pats game will not add to its perfection. 

2 hours ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I wish some engineers could build like a 4000 foot high plateau over say a 50 square mile area in SNE (maybe just outside 128)  so we could have a dependable winter season every year . I’ll recommend This to the state legislature . Would have sick upslope enhancement on East flow as well lol

Plans are already made, should be possible:

Current radar loop looks cool… rain moving in three different directions. South from NH/VT, east over MA, WNW over CT and RI.

48 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This weather fucking blows 

No one likes it, except ODB…

Who's working the Massachusetts border preventing that rain from moving north?  Don't think I've ever seen it that close to following a border like that lol.

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

When do the floods start?

Short term another win for the GFS. May be too dry for tomorrow though.

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I have a feeling the NAM’s up to its NW bias. 

Not sure how the NAM wins against the blocking building down. 

True.  But all the meso models are wetter than the GFS.  GFS is kind of on its own at the moment, and even the 18z ensembles were wetter than the operational run.

Common sense forecast: most likely not as juicy as the NAM 3K and not as dry as the GFS.  Somewhere in the middle is the answer, though my gut feeling is that the mesos are picking something up that the GFS isn't seeing...

On 9/15/2023 at 6:38 AM, Lava Rock said:

Tapatalk under new ownership. Getting lots of emails from my other forums saying they are discontinuing tapatalk use. Will this forum abandon it?

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

I was curious and did some research.  Tapatalk was re-purchased by the founder.  Probably good news for the app.  Almost all the forums that are removing support are owned by a company called Verticalscope which apparently have bought up thousands of forum sites on the internet over the last decade.  They also own the forum hosting software XenForo, and the competing app to Tapatalk, Fora.  Looks more like this Verticalscope company looking for an opportunity to consolidate than issues with Tapatalk.  Apparently almost the same message verbatim was posted in most forums, which made some people suspicious.

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I never said it sucks up here. We’ll see how it’s looking in another week after some lows in the low 40s.

Kevin did, but I don't think you got my joke anyway 

30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 

 

 

If you think it sucks up in Northern New England, how do you think I feel here in RI with GRAY foliage!

GFS and Euro continue to generate something off the Florida coast and kick it north-northeast up the coast.  Supported in the ensembles as well.  Doesn't look like it gets too organized yet.  Something to watch since it's so close by...

7 minutes ago, Childude645 said:

does anyone have an explanation for whats keeping the rain bands from moving west?

barely raining west of barnstable...

Lots of dry air being pulled in from the NW below 5000 feet.