bristolri_wx

That random thunderstorm cell on the RI/E MA border looks like a ball bouncing down I-195 on the radar loop.  Cool rainbow from it as well.

12 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

With or without rain, yes, Luke Combs will probably be a disaster, at least in the crowd of drunk country fans.

He'll need to drive his Fast Car out of Foxboro if it rains too much!

Short range (HRRR) models really not initializing this line well.  Will probably hold up a little better moving west to east than forecasted.

Hopefully a quiet weather day as it looks like KOKX and KBOX radars are both down at the moment. Not much radar coverage in SE NE when that occurs…

This stream of precip goes all the way back to the Jersey coast. Gonna be real messy with this frontal boundary taking its time moving east. That whole blob may end up in RI and SE MA over next several hours.

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

RI underwater currently 

Yup I’m under a flash flood warning until 8. The Rain train is here. Just got the dog inside before the torrents.

Looks like that cluster of convection off NJ/LI is going to end the “dry” weather SE of I95 in MA and RI in a few hours.

14 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol nice melt but true

Can’t melt in this humidity. Not enough combustible materials. Consider it a sweat-down…

Why does anyone like high dew points?  High dew points just killed my basement dehumidifier.  High dew points are stressing my air conditioners and making them run less efficiently.  High dew points mean you start sweating within a few minutes of being outside from doing normal things like walking and breathing if you are in regular/normal physical shape.  High dew points affect the elderly and those with breathing issues even more.  Days like today are great and I even understand people that like the record heat but high dew points are just total shit.  Like sewage treatment plant total shit.



Shit.

This is quite a juicy 24 hour ensemble mean on the HREF...

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We are well on way to a slightly AN temp summer and likely a record few summer. 2 weeks straight now of high dews with no breaks thru day 10

Hopefully an above normal summer temp wise leads to a below normal winter temp wise, and everyone wins!

Not gonna lie I’m welcoming this weather for the backlog of yard work I have. This out of shape middle aged man doesn’t mind the 50’s on a June weekend where I need to be outside for an extended period of time. Have been right on the edge of these spotty showers and patches of drizzle since yesterday. Wouldn’t be fun weather for any sort of outing though, took a drive through Colt State Park and it felt like March!

Radar looks juicy for the I95 corridor. Lots of convection out over the Atlantic moving NNE.

Noticed today that GYX did the BOX AFD. How often does that happen?

16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Agreed.  Although for my work anything above 75 isn’t ideal. 

I mean sunny, 75, with 50’s dews would be ideal. Down here we were close enough. 

Great weather for first little league practice of the season this evening. It was like watching a live version of the Bad News Bears but all the kids had fun.

Looks like the local little league org doesn’t provide as much equipment these days as when I played 35 years ago. Is that the case all over?

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This weather sucks

Bring on winter 

Oh come on man. I love winter as much as the next person but 80’s with 50 degree dews is just about perfect weather.

It’s those f-ing upper 60’s and 70’s dews that make summer (and sometimes spring) miserable at times. This is nice considering the shit winter we had on the coastal plain. I’ll take it.

On 3/27/2023 at 3:13 AM, Torch Tiger said:

Imagine

The long range heat forecast in clown range is as hopeful and accurate as long range snow forecast in clown range.

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know ...it seems they all spent time on and off with that thing next week. 

The Euro may suck donkey ballz now but this isn't the test case to point that out.  They're all pieces of shit at this time of year anyway...

We are in a longitudinal pattern and no model typically does well in that regime, ...now adding that to spring vagaries on top ...?

There's no 'looking forward' to the next run of any guidance if one is being rational about limitations ...

Big warm up in April possible, btw

I think the fast flow pattern that we have had setup the last few winters at our latitude really messes with the models for our area when it comes to cyclogenesis. It’s not like any one model sticks out as being better than the other last few seasons they have all had their hits and misses, but what’s been lacking is accurate modeling of mid-level and surface low tracks, and the ability to provide more fine tuned snowfall in the short range; and when I say accurate, we are talking about the usual threading the needle required to figure out where snow will fall in our varied geography in New England.

Hopefully the pattern is different next winter and we have both a better outcome winter with forecasts and the actual weather that accompanies them.

4 hours ago, weathafella said:

For sne under 1500 feet only..

 

 

Yup...
 

10 hours ago, George001 said:

The Pope did a great job with his forecasts this winter, I have to give credit where it’s due. Analogs and the long range models are good tools but the Pope correctly assessed that the presence of geese in November was a red flag. Animals have no sense of the calendar, the way they tell the seasons are changing is based off the present weather, the landscape, etc. Being able to accurately prepare for the change of seasons is literally a matter of life and death for animals, as they are forced to endure a level of exposure to the elements that we have the luxury of avoiding. They are far more in tune with the elements than we are, so I do think seasonal forecasters would benefit from incorporating analysis of animal behavior into their forecasts. Yeah it’s a strange method yeah, but if it works it works. I thought it was dumb at first too,  but throughout the winter it became more and more clear that I was being too closed minded. Instead of just discounting something because it seems dumb, strange, or is telling us something we don’t want to hear, it’s good to keep an open mind. 

2023-2024 winter forecast research already underway.

If you're getting snow enjoy it!  Snowed here for an hour.  Back to rain. What stuck is gone. 0.0" 

5 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

The HRRR still makes the finale for this storm interesting for the coastal plain.  Pinwheeling the phasing lows south through Mass. Bay and the Cape.  Just to the west of that things will be quite "violent" for a few hours...  We are in the HRRR wheelhouse now inside of 12 hrs so lets see how well it forecasts this...

And 5 hours makes a big difference.  HRRR now has the low about 100 miles east of where it was previously modeled when I posted over the next few hours, out east of Chatham rather than crossing the canal.  Probably means less snow for my location, maybe an inch if we're lucky...

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gives another inch of QPF after 11am for ORH eastward down into N half of RI. Southern part gets over a half inch but has to wait for dryslot to sink south. 

Yeah, just feels like someone is going to get a surprise 4"-8" out of this where 1-3" or 2-4" is being forecasted....